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WTF ? Cant believe market is going up like this !!!
- Thread starter zanek
- Start date
Quote from candles:
Correct.
Its a matter of how many points you want to make.
YOu can go long RIGHT NOW and you WILL make money on the position, but there's a chance you might have some drawdown.
Or you can wait for a 5 point pullback, which you probably wont get, but if you do and you get hit long you are guaranteed to make alot more points! love it!!
I've heard this before...about tech stocks in '99, housing in '06 and oil in early '08.
Go long, can't lose, this will go on forever...
The market is going straight up for one very simple reason. The FED is giving virtually free money to banks. They have 2 options, borrow money at 0.5% and buy treasuries and get maybe 1-1.5% on it. Bit of profit in that.
OR
Borrow money for 0.5% buy all the assets they can get their hands on and potentially make 60-70% on it and if they dont they tell the FED they are bankrupt and they get saved. Its win win
OR
Borrow money for 0.5% buy all the assets they can get their hands on and potentially make 60-70% on it and if they dont they tell the FED they are bankrupt and they get saved. Its win win
Quote from ivanbaj:
What if:
1. The Econ data keeps improving
2. The fed cools on the full QE II?
3. Signs show up for impending rate increase?
What will happen to gold and some other speculative commodities?
What will happen to the bond market?
Where will the money go to?
Just saying...
It's possible that the economic data will continue to improve, however less likely that the Fed will remain loose with monetary policy.
For what it's worth, despite a strong jobs report this morning, gold crashed to 1372, but as I type, it has blown through the 1394 high from yesterday.
If you are concerned about the possibility of the Fed removing stimulus, you could do what I am doing: a pair trade of long gold + short S&P 500.
Since the post-Fed lows of 1327 (gold) and 1180 (S&P 500), gold is up by 5% and S&P 500 is up by 3.6%.
However in risk adverse periods such as late 2008 and early 2009, gold fell by less than equities.
its what the ES does dude!
It's designed to go up over time.
Lots in things are in place to ensure an upside bias.
It will keep flying up over time.
Its like a few others have said:
"we may never see 1000 ES ever again, but we are GUARANTEED to see 1500+ at some point. g-u-a-r-a-n-t-e-e-d"
It's designed to go up over time.
Lots in things are in place to ensure an upside bias.
It will keep flying up over time.
Its like a few others have said:
"we may never see 1000 ES ever again, but we are GUARANTEED to see 1500+ at some point. g-u-a-r-a-n-t-e-e-d"
Quote from m22au:
It's possible that the economic data will continue to improve, however less likely that the Fed will remain loose with monetary policy.
For what it's worth, despite a strong jobs report this morning, gold crashed to 1372, but as I type, it has blown through the 1394 high from yesterday.
If you are concerned about the possibility of the Fed removing stimulus, you could do what I am doing: a pair trade of long gold + short S&P 500.
Since the post-Fed lows of 1327 (gold) and 1180 (S&P 500), gold is up by 5% and S&P 500 is up by 3.6%.
However in risk adverse periods such as late 2008 and early 2009, gold fell by less than equities.
Finally, a reasonable post and trading idea to boot.
You think NDX up 25.5% in two months is normal?
Quote from Ghost of Cutten:
You are trading with a clear bias. Why is it puzzling that the market is going up? The recession ended, we have had 18 months of positive GDP growth, employment is now heading back up, corporate profits have been repeatedly beating expectations, and price/earnings ratios on many blue chip stocks are either cheap or moderately valued (e.g. 12-15 times earnings, with earnings growing at a nice clip). Name me one bull market after a major bear/crash that only lasted 18 months? Normal bull market cycles are 3-5 years. The Fed has just announced a policy of debasing the dollar, which is also bullish for somewhat inflation-hedged assets like stocks. What is so irrational about the market at 1215, given those fundamentals? It is still off 23% from 3 years ago, and down over 20% from its level 10 whole years ago.
I see nothing in your post that makes a robust case that prices are clearly overvalued. Why do you think there has to be noticeable pullbacks to give you an easy chance to get long? Don't you know that bull markets often grind higher without giving easy pullback entry points? Have you heard the term "a bull market climbs a wall of worry"?
Quote from Ghost of Cutten:
Zerohedge are just economically illiterate permabears who are frustrated that their $10k E-trade account blew up by being short all the way from the 2009 lows with no stop. They have been consistently bearish with no flexibility or risk control, all the way up. A bull market could last 10 years, go up 300%, and smack them in the face with a wet kipper and they still wouldn't recognise it.
What an asinine comment. 90% of the content is not even related to market bias, but for whatever reason the only people who obsess over this antiquated "bull vs bear" line of bullshit post on this site.
It reminds me of the same crap I heard a few years ago when folks would buy precious metals or crude oil futures, but were bearish equities. They'd be called perma-bears simply for expressing an opinion on stocks, but the context was missing. They were only bearish relative to dollar devaluation (i.e. stocks priced relative to "hard" currencies).
Quote from MKTrader:
I've heard this before...about tech stocks in '99, housing in '06 and oil in early '08.
Go long, can't lose, this will go on forever...
So true. I've learned through experience that when I get that feeling of, "Uncle uncle!!! I give up!! Okay I'll buy!!" That's when I should step back and wait.