WTF ? Cant believe market is going up like this !!!

Aside from the first post, no one mentioned the possibility of another Flash Crash... Issues in Europe, Capital Controls in Asia.. among some of the more obvious political issues that people like David Rosenberg has brought up recently - "The 99ers"....

If the Market is in a knot, I can't wait for it to unravel.

Oh, one more thing: What happens if and when the dollar rallies? There is this extremely ugly situation of extreme correlation in assets right now.
 
Quote from psytrade:

Aside from the first post, no one mentioned the possibility of another Flash Crash... Issues in Europe, Capital Controls in Asia.. among some of the more obvious political issues that people like David Rosenberg has brought up recently - "The 99ers"....

If the Market is in a knot, I can't wait for it to unravel.

Oh, one more thing: What happens if and when the dollar rallies? There is this extremely ugly situation of extreme correlation in assets right now.
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As I mentioned earlier, if the S&P 500 falls below 1180, then it's reasonable to expect additional monetary stimulus from the Fed.

With regards to a "dollar rally", well the "US Dollar" is up today against EUR, JPY and GBP. But it is still down against a real currency: gold.
 
Quote from watchdaride:

but the republicans say we are worst off with obamaism . SO why are companies making money and we are net+ jobs and stock market up .
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Already addressed. Try reading the whole thread.
 
Quote from psytrade:

Aside from the first post, no one mentioned the possibility of another Flash Crash... Issues in Europe, Capital Controls in Asia.. among some of the more obvious political issues that people like David Rosenberg has brought up recently - "The 99ers"....

If the Market is in a knot, I can't wait for it to unravel.
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You're right. At some point in the future the bubble will likely burst. The stock market can continue to rally, but if economy doesn't turn around then at some point it's going to be a tremendous, ugly crash.
 
Quote from olias:

You're right. At some point in the future the bubble will likely burst. The stock market can continue to rally, but if economy doesn't turn around then at some point it's going to be a tremendous, ugly crash.
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Crash in real terms - absolutely. But in nominal terms, maybe not.

As many other people have pointed out in this thread and others, Zimbabwe's stockmarket performed very well during its period of hyperinflation. Yet the standard of living in Zimbabwe fell because of the reduced purchasing power of the currency.
 
Quote from olias:

You're right. At some point in the future the bubble will likely burst. The stock market can continue to rally, but if economy doesn't turn around then at some point it's going to be a tremendous, ugly crash.
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There are 3 bubbles created by the easy money. Commodities, stock and bonds

In my mind the bonds are running out of space. The bubble could sit there for a long time. Only a prolonged slump will keep this bubble up.

The commodities can also grow if the usd keeps loosing ground and there is demand from other big economies. A long slump of the USA and an independent growth of the rest of the world will keep this bubble up and even expanding. But is the world ready to expand without the USA?


The stock bubble seems the least inflated to me. For one it seems that the data has no were to go but up. Also many of the to 500 companies are international so they should grow even if the USA is tagalong as long a the rest of the world expands. But can the world expand without the USA market?

Assuming there won't be new econ surprise or war etc... In the next 1-3 years the most likely scenarios is an improvement of the econ. data. Growth of the usd burst of the bond bubble and the gold.
 
Right on point. So many equate rising stock prices with economic health. In recent years that has definitely been the case but now there is a huge disconnect between the stock market and the economy. Most people have missed the majority, if not all of this rally. I know a number of folks who moved all their 401(k) money to bond funds near the bottom or shortly after the initial bounce and haven't moved it back to stock funds so when Bernanke speaks to the "wealth effect" he is failing to realize that a very small percentage of the population is really feeling that effect and if they are it's in retirement funds, which can't be touched for quite some time depending on your age.

Bottom line...my neighbor is still unemployed after almost 2 years and he has actually looked for work pretty damn hard and has been willing to accept low paying jobs. His bennies run out in February unless there's an extension. It will be the welfare office for him if no extension comes thru. There are many millions just like him.

Quote from MKTrader:

So wrong it's hard to know where to start or stop, but just a few things:

1) GDP has a large "government" component. When they borrow/steal money they don't have for stimulus, GDP magically goes up.

2) Official unemployment rate holding steady at 9.6%. If that weren't bad enough, the calculation used in the early 80s would have us around 20%. Moreover, the "good" NFP report is very misleading. To wit, labor force participation has now dropped to the lowest rate it has been since 1984. And people not in the labor force are at their highest levels ever.

3) Corporate profits have been based on cost-cutting, productivity and most likely, some funky accounting. None of this does anything for hiring or long-term sustainability.

4) While we're talking all-time highs, the number of people on foodstamps has hit a new record as well. Yipee! Go QE, zero interest rates and juiced stock market! I'm sure the food stampers are 200% long with their leveraged ETFs right now.

But I guess it's better to take in all the econ data at face value and feel better about ourselves. Who really needs to peel back the layers and actually analyze it?
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Quote from zanek:

I know most on here would say just to trade what you see and not what you think, but I constantly see the market starting to go down and then its pushed right back up.

I'd love to do more swing trading, but I'm also wondering when the rug will be pulled out and we have a massive freefall.

This all seems really effing crazy how much its manipulated. I'm still on the sidelines in amazement

Argh, maybe I should just shutup and trade with all this free Fed money being dumped into the system
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You sound like me in '06-'07. I started liquidating all my long stock "investments" in IRA/brokerage accounts somewhere during that time frame, probably 15-20% from the top. Then I just stewed as I watched the market grind up for weeks at a time.
 
Quote from ivanbaj:


The stock bubble seems the least inflated to me. For one it seems that the data has no were to go but up. Also many of the to 500 companies are international so they should grow even if the USA is tagalong as long a the rest of the world expands. But can the world expand without the USA market?
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Which data?

http://hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc101101.htm

I respect Dr. Hussman's work. It's rare to find a Ph.D. economist who has also managed to outperform the indexes convincingly for 10 years:

http://hussmanfunds.com/pdf/hsgperf.pdf

I trust him over 1 million market cheerleaders.
 
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