WTF ? Cant believe market is going up like this !!!

Ghost of Cutten:

No offense, your wrong.

First to put this into perspective...ask yourselves...who in in the Market?

First hand knowldege of is that Smart Money is not back, it left two years ago and that HTFs are close to 50% of the Volume.

Look at the volume. I see no SPIKE in money flowing into the US STOCK MARKET. ZERO! IT IS MANIPULATED PERIOD.

With that said...it's a great trading market for serious traders.

But you are correct in the "Manufacturing" numbers look to be sending somewhat of a signal that a recovery is under way. Yet, the FED has spit i the face of this data and QE 3 is also around the corner.

Unemployment is not going to change. Much of the Job Loss is gone forever. 9% or so will be the norm for a decaded if not more until, baby boomers really start to retire and upon up positions.

The dollar is being crushed and the QE2 has started a small currency war. We will see what Brazil, China, and a few others do in the next quarter.



SO, IMHO, the Recession is not dead, nor is the Depression. GDP numbers were bullshit and will be revised lower. 1.5% GDP growth for the next year if not 5 years. TIPS show that very little inflation is the bet for the next 5 years as well. However Sugar, Coffee, Oil, Wheat, all show a massive inflation move...sending mixed signals that the "low inflation" is also a scam....as is the "Turn Around" and Unemployment Numbers. Somebody's math is wrong....I wonder who's , as in the US GOV.

The Depression may start to turn into a Recession that could last well into 2015...if not longer. The Change in the HOUSE is a positive shot in HOPE JUICE. Lets see if the Politicans have the balls to do what is needed. UK did two weeks ago.
 
Quote from bootize:

So true. I've learned through experience that when I get that feeling of, "Uncle uncle!!! I give up!! Okay I'll buy!!" That's when I should step back and wait.
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This is literally a replay of the fall of 2007, except that this time the Fed has stated that it will put a permanent bid beneath EVERYTHING, just to create the illusion of prosperity.

Ya know, inflate assets at all costs and when Joe Blow says "why am I broke and my cost of living is going skyward?", these asshats can say "but look the Dow is at 12,000, so all must be good?"

Why can't anybody learn a damn thing after this same charade has been played ad nauseum?

As a few others have stated, the Zimbabwe stock market was the best performing for a few years running (just forget about the currency part of the equation). We are being asked to do the same thing and yet we have a few members of this site, joining along in this complete and total fucking charade.
 
Quote from denner:

This is literally a replay of the fall of 2007, except that this time the Fed has stated that it will put a permanent bid beneath EVERYTHING, just to create the illusion of prosperity.

Ya know, inflate assets at all costs and when Joe Blow says "why am I broke and my cost of living is going skyward?", these asshats can say "but look the Dow is at 12,000, so all must be good?"

Why can't anybody learn a damn thing after this same charade has been played ad nauseum?

As a few others have stated, the Zimbabwe stock market was the best performing for a few years running (just forget about the currency part of the equation). We are being asked to do the same thing and yet we have a few members of this site, joining along in this complete and total fucking charade.
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I'm in broad agreement with you.

In the unlikely event that the S&P 500 falls below 1180, Bernanke will just come in with a new more billion / trillion in QE in order to juice risk-assets higher.

This Bernanke put helps to take away the "but aren't stocks/gold already high enough?" question out of the equation.
 
Quote from m22au:

I'm in broad agreement with you.

In the unlikely event that the S&P 500 falls below 1180, Bernanke will just come in with a new more billion / trillion in QE in order to juice risk-assets higher.

This Bernanke put helps to take away the "but aren't stocks/gold already high enough?" question out of the equation.
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It's a complete horror show to be honest. At some point, a trader has to let go off this myopic "anything to catch the trend" mentality and look towards where this is all heading.

Kinda like, who gives a shit how much you make if at some point it's confiscated anyhow. That's why this sequence of events is far bigger than giving a shit if the s&p goes back to 1400 or whatever.
 
Dudes relax. USA is still the biggest market, it has the biggest GDP by a big margin. Which of the s&p 500 companies are you against? When the bond/gold bubble bursts the exit will be fast and violent. WTF with Zimbabwe? Where is it?

The 600 bill is only 7% increase in M2.

The fed has no mandate or interest to make gold prices stable there will be no clear communication when the time comes for the gold bubble to burst. I am still for 30% gold decline in a month.
 
Quote from ivanbaj:

Dudes relax. USA is still the biggest market, it has the biggest GDP by a big margin. Which of the s&p 500 companies are you against? When the bond/gold bubble bursts the exit will be fast and violent. WTF with Zimbabwe? Where is it?

The 600 bill is only 7% increase in M2.

The fed has no mandate or interest to make gold prices stable there will be no clear communication when the time comes for the gold bubble to burst. I am still for 30% gold decline in a month.
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Not necessarily:

http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2010/11/fed-gone-mad-total-supermoney-through.html
 
Quote from ivanbaj:

Dudes relax. USA is still the biggest market, it has the biggest GDP by a big margin. Which of the s&p 500 companies are you against? When the bond/gold bubble bursts the exit will be fast and violent. WTF with Zimbabwe? Where is it?

The 600 bill is only 7% increase in M2.

The fed has no mandate or interest to make gold prices stable there will be no clear communication when the time comes for the gold bubble to burst. I am still for 30% gold decline in a month.
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I can only hope and pray that you are right.

Having lived thru bursts and bubbles for most of my adult life now, my patience for this constant manipulative tinkering has really worn thin.
 
Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

You are trading with a clear bias. Why is it puzzling that the market is going up? The recession ended, we have had 18 months of positive GDP growth, employment is now heading back up, corporate profits have been repeatedly beating expectations, and price/earnings ratios on many blue chip stocks are either cheap or moderately valued (e.g. 12-15 times earnings, with earnings growing at a nice clip). Name me one bull market after a major bear/crash that only lasted 18 months? Normal bull market cycles are 3-5 years. The Fed has just announced a policy of debasing the dollar, which is also bullish for somewhat inflation-hedged assets like stocks. What is so irrational about the market at 1215, given those fundamentals? It is still off 23% from 3 years ago, and down over 20% from its level 10 whole years ago.

I see nothing in your post that makes a robust case that prices are clearly overvalued. Why do you think there has to be noticeable pullbacks to give you an easy chance to get long? Don't you know that bull markets often grind higher without giving easy pullback entry points? Have you heard the term "a bull market climbs a wall of worry"?
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but the republicans say we are worst off with obamaism . SO why are companies making money and we are net+ jobs and stock market up .
 
Quote from denner:

It's a complete horror show to be honest. At some point, a trader has to let go off this myopic "anything to catch the trend" mentality and look towards where this is all heading.

Kinda like, who gives a shit how much you make if at some point it's confiscated anyhow. That's why this sequence of events is far bigger than giving a shit if the s&p goes back to 1400 or whatever.
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I understand your point, however in the short-term those considerations / possibilities (confiscation / currency wars / fighting wars) are not relevant to most market participants.

All that matters to the majority is buying stocks because of the big bad Bernanke put.
 
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