Would you collaborate with a programmer if it meant sharing your system/research?

[savoir]

Someone suggested that I would have the programmer work for free or that it was even slavery. I never considered it that way. But I actually brought up those concerns to the programmer and he assured me that he didn't feel that way at all about it.

The slavery comment was made tongue in cheek. It seems I touched a nerve by saying the programmer would be working for free. That’s just my opinion. It was not meant as a personal insult.

You have spent years and some money, and maybe put your hopes and dreams, into developing your statistical model. I guess an emotional attachment to it is to be expected. It is your baby.

For me, I don’t place much value on statistics of OHLC, comparing daily bars, weekly bars, retracement levels, the day of week, etc., etc., to make predictions. Secret stats or not, I think it is a flawed approach to begin with, and I personally would not lead anyone in that direction, much less consider it a value proposition to do so.

My intention is not to be harsh. I’m just plainly expressing my opinion in a thread asking for opinions, and that’s all it is—my opinion.

What’s important is that you both feel you are getting something of value in the deal. Otherwise how can there be a deal, right? I wish your collaboration much profit.

 

[vincentnyc]

@Laissez Faire : just curious, what's your background? what did you study in college? did you have any jobs beside trading after you graduate from college? what were they?

 

[Laissez Faire]

The slavery comment was made tongue in cheek. It seems I touched a nerve by saying the programmer would be working for free. That’s just my opinion. It was not meant as a personal insult.

An opinion could be considered an insult, though. If my opinion is that someone is fat I'm sure they'd be insulted if I said that to them.

If your opinion is still that the programmer is working for free you're essentially saying that what I'm giving him is worth nothing. I think that could be considered an insult, but I'm not Will Smith, so no need to worry about that.

My intention is not to be harsh. I’m just plainly expressing my opinion in a thread asking for opinions, and that’s all it is—my opinion.

What’s important is that you both feel you are getting something of value in the deal. Otherwise how can there be a deal, right? I wish your collaboration much profit.

I was asking from my perspective, though. Not what the programmer would get out of it.

Thanks for the good wishes.

 

[Laissez Faire]

@Laissez Faire : just curious, what's your background? what did you study in college? did you have any jobs beside trading after you graduate from college? what were they?

Carpenter, engineer and big time gambler in the financial markets.

I've been a full time trader a few times, but currently not so.

 

[vincentnyc]

Carpenter, engineer and big time gambler in the financial markets.

I've been a full time trader a few times, but currently not so.

cool. me...i majored in computer science in college and realize programming is not for me. doing IT support for at least 20 years...now for a financial company consist of traders trading MBS, fixed income etc. have been doing day/swing trading for at last 5 years now. have been doing food delivery on my bike during the covid pandemic as more of an exercise and made $30k last year as part time food delivery. Recently took up sports betting.

 

[NoahA]

To be clear - he will not be receiving any $$$ from me. His payment is that I share with him my current system/technology and years of research.

Honestly, this is now sounding too one sided in his favor. I saw a post here quite a while ago about a guy looking to share strategies and the rules were that he would give up one profitable one of his in exchange for someone else also giving up a profitable one. This way both are gaining and losing the same amount but the amount that you learn could certainly take you to the next level.

If you don't code this up right now can you not still use it manually? And if you do have it coded, are you guaranteed to be making money from the first month that it's running? I guess I just don't understand why if it's something really good you need to rush coding it and hence giving it away. And if you're not able to make money with it now or it can't be traded manually unless you code it up, how do you know that it will work once it's already?

I'm just having trouble evaluating how important it is to keep this to yourself. If it's really that good then I wouldn't give it away to anybody.

 

[savoir]

An opinion could be considered an insult, though. If my opinion is that someone is fat I'm sure they'd be insulted if I said that to them.

I don’t see any need to walk on eggshells when it comes to discussing markets or things related to trading.

If your opinion is still that the programmer is working for free you're essentially saying that what I'm giving him is worth nothing.

Yes, I think I made it clear that unless the model comes with an ATS he isn’t getting much. What the model is worth to you is not nothing and comes mostly from the work you put into the model and the religious experiences you’ve had trading its signals.

I think that could be considered an insult, but I'm not Will Smith, so no need to worry about that.

Of course, outside of trading it depends on the situation whether or not to speak plainly. For example, even if asked for an honest opinion, I would never tell another man his wife is ugly. A man who says that to another man or jokes about her looks is just asking for trouble.

Apparently, Chris Rock wasn’t aware of such etiquette. Or perhaps he felt his status or the occasion made him immune to the possible consequences. He was so oblivious to the situation that he stood with his hands behind his back and led with his face at the oncoming smack.

Well it’s television. Something that is presented as unexpected doesn’t mean it isn’t part of the show. There is the show and there is the show within the show. A person sees only what he or she is able to see.

But I digress.

I was asking from my perspective, though. Not what the programmer would get out of it.

And I was including your perspective, which I would think includes considering what the other party is getting out of the collaboration.

He is a programmer with a programmer’s perspective. Perhaps a statistical approach to trading appeals to him.

From a trader’s perspective, I don’t see much value in statistical models, especially one that someone else has developed. Again just my opinion, I think both parties here are overvaluing the model and that’s a good deal for the seller of the model.

Thanks for the good wishes.

Sure. I hope your collaboration works out great and you both get rich from it.
.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Honestly, this is now sounding too one sided in his favor. I saw a post here quite a while ago about a guy looking to share strategies and the rules were that he would give up one profitable one of his in exchange for someone else also giving up a profitable one. This way both are gaining and losing the same amount but the amount that you learn could certainly take you to the next level.

That's a different exchange, though. And does sound fair.

If you don't code this up right now can you not still use it manually? And if you do have it coded, are you guaranteed to be making money from the first month that it's running? I guess I just don't understand why if it's something really good you need to rush coding it and hence giving it away. And if you're not able to make money with it now or it can't be traded manually unless you code it up, how do you know that it will work once it's already?

What I have is already 'in use'. Every or most predictions I ever posted was in some way based on this system. It's a bit inefficient in terms of handling data/updating data and wouldn't hurt to have some new implementations.

I'm not in a rush. It was just an opportunity that came up.

Think of it more as a forecasting system or method/system for analyzing the markets and give good forecasts for the day ahead and the day as it develops.

I don't think the programmer will be able to use or understand this just out of the box. There's more to trading than simply having a system and it takes a long time and experience to begin to understand how the markets generally move most of the time. There's simply no substitute for experience.

Which is why I in some ways feel safe that the programmer won't leave me in the dust or no longer need me after he gets the code.

I've told all this to the programmer in order to manage his expectations, but he's very happy regardless and says my approach have made a few light bulbs go off already and solve some of the problems he have perceived with regards to analyzing time series.

I'm just having trouble evaluating how important it is to keep this to yourself. If it's really that good then I wouldn't give it away to anybody.

I've had those concerns a lot. And in a way it still feels bad to just give it all away. However, it's not like it would stop working if I gave away as it's not a very specific system that exploits a very specific/small edge or characteristic of the market. It's more like a broad understanding of the market seeking to exploit all parts of it.

But damn, Noah. Now I start doubting my decision again. LOL.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Yes, I think I made it clear that unless the model comes with an ATS he isn’t getting much. What the model is worth to you is not nothing and comes mostly from the work you put into the model and the religious experiences you’ve had trading its signals.

You don't know in great detail what I have, though, so I'll say your opinion isn't fully informed. But I understand your opinion coming from your perspective that markets can't be predicted and not believing in statistics to begin with.

I've talked to the programmer about this in order to manage his expectations and even showed him a bit already, so in his mind, he already feels he's getting a lot already.

Even if the system didn't generate millions for me yet, it does not negate the value of the system. If I'm not mistaken I'm sure it took you some time to become an able trader as well.

If we look at Simons, for example, he spent 10 + years on his project in order to get anywhere meaningful. And I know you don't believe in that approach, but his work is based on predictive modeling and statistics. Hard to argue with his numbers.

Sure. I hope your collaboration works out great and you both get rich from it.

Thanks. I hope so too.

 

[Laissez Faire]

So, I haven't really decided on anything yet, although steps have been taken towards a collaboration drafting up legal documents. Essentially, we'll share equal rights to the final solution and it will remain in private use between the both of us.

I'm considering my options though. Let's say I hire a programmer instead:

Can anyone approximate the cost of a decent programmer for 3-4 weeks of work assuming that's what's required?

The way I see it, I could possibly hire a programmer to do it and he will deliver without really understanding what he's putting together. For him, it may be all math and logic.

Pros:

- I reserve all rights to the final solution and can do whatever I want with it. The ideas and framework are not shared with anyone else.

- I won't have to spend time "lecturing" anyone or "teaching". No obligations.

Cons:

1. Implementation may be harder if I don't explain to the programmer in depth what it's all about. As such, he won't be in a place where he can add suggestions and possibly improve the solution as he understand what's needed.

A workaround for this could be that I first hire a programmer to suggest a general framework/architecture without revealing details of the calculations.

Finally, I give the job to someone else according to the specifications of the prior programmer. But, since I don't need to explain to him how it works, I can possibly still keep things secret. For example, I can say that this is just a collection of statistics. If he doesn't understand the underlying framework/potential, I don't think he'll bother digging deeper.

2. Cost $$$

3. Won't be able to possibly take it to the next level.

4. Will probably have to hire a programmer again if I want to make changes.

Thoughts?

Just writing it out here as these are thoughts that are going through my head now.

I do believe I have something good and unique here, although I know other people disagree with that. I'm not worried that the 'edge' will disappear. It's just about not sharing my work with anyone and retaining full rights myself doing whatever I want.

Thanks in advance.