You should post a chart of you CL trades. On the ES chart, it looked like you tried to get in a breakout before it occurred, instead it looked like it was trading between DT and DB. This was the previous chart, on your good long ES trade, that was pretty good.
Working on Consistent Profitability
- Thread starter tlow
- Start date
CL (as many have said) is a cleaner instrument technically. Right now FX impacts seem to be driving everything. With luck markets may have a better idea of what QE will mean next week. I wouldn't bet on that though. From your thread it's clear that you're an "action" guy. CL will keep you awake for sure. I think it's fair to expect higher volatility over the next couple months as things sort out (QE II, Election Fall Out). While the $/CL correlation remains in tact you might want to have a currency chart up while you trade CL. Keep in mind that CL trades monthly - Be careful not to get in a delivery situation
On the DT/DB chart, i had the entry as a stop order 1 tick below that channel, it got filled then immediately reversed back (sorry u may not be able to see it b/c of the red timeline showing where I entered)
Ya I may start posting hte CL charts instead...they get a bit messy and cluttered but let me look into it a bit. Im not sure if I will post all my trades either, it just gets a bit much with 10 trades up, maybe just the ones Im not sure about, screwed up on, etc.
So, obviously, I've been lagging a bit on my journal. I have pretty much ditched the ES all together. I've found that Im pretty mentally burnt out at the NYMEX close and need a break but I usually wind up just walking away for the rest of the day. The other issue Im running into is fighting taking the SIM seriously as if it were real money. For example, I took a couple trades during the FOMC stuff and there is no way I would've taken the trades had it been real money. So I've got to continue to work on that, but for the most part I've been doing ok.
A couple other notes, since Im on the west coast (IE the best coast) I've been trying to get up at 5am...its just not happening. I usually wind up hitting my snooze and just waking up at my normal time of around 6. I don't think Im going to keep fighting this. It would be nice to be up earlier, but my body is just saying NO its WAY TOO early.
Next note, the CL in general is going well. As I said before Im liking it much better. Im still working on my comfort level going off S/R and looking for breakouts/continuations off the S/R. So far, those have been my best trades and I just need to continue to recognize those better.
My stats:
Im positive by about 150 ticks total over the past 3 weeks or so...which isn't great but it is positive, however, I only have a winrate of about 30% and my expectation is negative. So those need to be fixed. Im also averaging about 1 really bad trade per day...eliminating that 1 bad trade would be a pretty major swing b/c I usually wind up costing myself between 10-15 ticks of profit or loss.
Anyway, Im going to keep it up and start my posting of charts again with the CL I feel my biggest struggle is fixing some of my breakeven trades. The past week or so especially I have a bunch of B/E that hit my target but then reversed hard and I hung on to them when I should've taken a small profit. It goes back to the arguement of letting winners run vs. taking profits and be able to recognize when price isn't going to come back in my direction.
A couple other notes, since Im on the west coast (IE the best coast
) I've been trying to get up at 5am...its just not happening. I usually wind up hitting my snooze and just waking up at my normal time of around 6. I don't think Im going to keep fighting this. It would be nice to be up earlier, but my body is just saying NO its WAY TOO early. Next note, the CL in general is going well. As I said before Im liking it much better. Im still working on my comfort level going off S/R and looking for breakouts/continuations off the S/R. So far, those have been my best trades and I just need to continue to recognize those better.
My stats:
Im positive by about 150 ticks total over the past 3 weeks or so...which isn't great but it is positive, however, I only have a winrate of about 30% and my expectation is negative. So those need to be fixed. Im also averaging about 1 really bad trade per day...eliminating that 1 bad trade would be a pretty major swing b/c I usually wind up costing myself between 10-15 ticks of profit or loss.
Anyway, Im going to keep it up and start my posting of charts again with the CL I feel my biggest struggle is fixing some of my breakeven trades. The past week or so especially I have a bunch of B/E that hit my target but then reversed hard and I hung on to them when I should've taken a small profit. It goes back to the arguement of letting winners run vs. taking profits and be able to recognize when price isn't going to come back in my direction.
Okay so back to the journal. This week Im going to really try and eliminating some of my B/E trades. I went through most of B/E trades over the past couple weeks more than 90% of them the price continued against me after the B/E stop hit. So that's telling me, Im not taking profits off the table when I probably should, but this is going to be a delicate balance because I really don't want to exit before a move happens because I get jumpy or whatever.
Also, still trying to focus on plays off s/r that have further potential for breakouts/continuations using stop orders. Im using stops to identify the s/r early so I have a trade planned out before it hits that area. The main problem again goes back to taking profits vs letting winners run...Im always thinking about do I exit at this support/resistance level or stay in and hope for a breakout??? Im trying to focus on the other parts of the price action to make the decision whether or not to stay in...what hour is it? How much has it moved during the day? Where are the next s/r levels...questions like that. But overall, I think Im doing a better job of finding those s/r into breakout trades.
The other latest thing is that I've motified my goals a bit since I've switched over to the CL. Now, I have to average 50 ticks per day per week for 4 weeks straight in order to go back to live trading.
This morning I was trading really poorly. Just not really caring and not focusing. I think I was in SIM mode just not worrying about it too much. Thus I made 1 bad trade that costs 10 ticks and 1 trade that wasn't a bad idea, but way too big a stop and I didn't exit sooner when price turned against me so it wound up costing 17 ticks instead of like 8.
Below is the chart from my last couple of trades...I've been looking at the 400 tick chart and 5m chart mainly. I like the 400 tick chart b/c it eliminates those long bars you get in the CL with the 1-3 min charts.
The first trade off the double top, this goes back to letting winners run and recognizing when to get out and when not to. I had a hard time with this one because it was somewhat still in the doldrum hours so I wasn't sure if the thing was going to run or not. So when it started going against me I exited for a small profit. I then looked to reenter on the break below the 86.72 level. Again, my target got hit a bunch of times, but I didn't exit hoping for the continuation, it didn't come, so I got out when it started making the push above 86.50 for the 2nd time. Obviously the correct call would've been to stay in the original trade. I feel like I managed the 2nd leg of the trade well. I just always hate seeing my target get hit and then having it retrace. So I got 36 ticks worth of profit where if I had stayed in the original trade it probably would've been more like 55 ticks.
The last trade, i went in long off the resistance in the 86.70-.75 range. MAYBE took profits a bit early, it reversed pretty hard and quick when it hit the 87.10 level. Im fine with how this trade went but again, mentally unsure of when to take the discretionary profits.
Here are the stats: (no more $$$ just ticks)
Total Trades: 7
Winners: 4
Losers: 2
B/E: 1
Total Ticks: 44
Avg. Win (ticks): 17.75
Avg. Loss (ticks): 13.50
Total Win Rate: 57.1%
Even with exiting my 1 runner early, if I eliminated the 1 bad trade and had a smaller stop or exited sooner on the other trade, would've been a really nice day. Still all in all not bad...Really gotta get rid of that 1 bad trade per day.
Oh ya I had 1 trade on the ES:
not sure if this would've worked since it was in SIM
12:32- Short 1221.25 stop 1222.50 target 1118.50
12:54- Buy to cover at 1118.50 (questionable fill)
+2.75 pts not sure I can really count this...maybe would've gotten 1 pt out of it.
Also, still trying to focus on plays off s/r that have further potential for breakouts/continuations using stop orders. Im using stops to identify the s/r early so I have a trade planned out before it hits that area. The main problem again goes back to taking profits vs letting winners run...Im always thinking about do I exit at this support/resistance level or stay in and hope for a breakout??? Im trying to focus on the other parts of the price action to make the decision whether or not to stay in...what hour is it? How much has it moved during the day? Where are the next s/r levels...questions like that. But overall, I think Im doing a better job of finding those s/r into breakout trades.
The other latest thing is that I've motified my goals a bit since I've switched over to the CL. Now, I have to average 50 ticks per day per week for 4 weeks straight in order to go back to live trading.
This morning I was trading really poorly. Just not really caring and not focusing. I think I was in SIM mode just not worrying about it too much. Thus I made 1 bad trade that costs 10 ticks and 1 trade that wasn't a bad idea, but way too big a stop and I didn't exit sooner when price turned against me so it wound up costing 17 ticks instead of like 8.
Below is the chart from my last couple of trades...I've been looking at the 400 tick chart and 5m chart mainly. I like the 400 tick chart b/c it eliminates those long bars you get in the CL with the 1-3 min charts.
The first trade off the double top, this goes back to letting winners run and recognizing when to get out and when not to. I had a hard time with this one because it was somewhat still in the doldrum hours so I wasn't sure if the thing was going to run or not. So when it started going against me I exited for a small profit. I then looked to reenter on the break below the 86.72 level. Again, my target got hit a bunch of times, but I didn't exit hoping for the continuation, it didn't come, so I got out when it started making the push above 86.50 for the 2nd time. Obviously the correct call would've been to stay in the original trade. I feel like I managed the 2nd leg of the trade well. I just always hate seeing my target get hit and then having it retrace. So I got 36 ticks worth of profit where if I had stayed in the original trade it probably would've been more like 55 ticks.
The last trade, i went in long off the resistance in the 86.70-.75 range. MAYBE took profits a bit early, it reversed pretty hard and quick when it hit the 87.10 level. Im fine with how this trade went but again, mentally unsure of when to take the discretionary profits.
Here are the stats: (no more $$$ just ticks)
Total Trades: 7
Winners: 4
Losers: 2
B/E: 1
Total Ticks: 44
Avg. Win (ticks): 17.75
Avg. Loss (ticks): 13.50
Total Win Rate: 57.1%
Even with exiting my 1 runner early, if I eliminated the 1 bad trade and had a smaller stop or exited sooner on the other trade, would've been a really nice day. Still all in all not bad...Really gotta get rid of that 1 bad trade per day.
Oh ya I had 1 trade on the ES:
not sure if this would've worked since it was in SIM
12:32- Short 1221.25 stop 1222.50 target 1118.50
12:54- Buy to cover at 1118.50 (questionable fill)
+2.75 pts not sure I can really count this...maybe would've gotten 1 pt out of it.
It was a tough day early on, lots of chop. I got chopped out twice in the morning...the only thing I did wrong was that on one of the trades I had way to big a stop in place (17 ticks) and of course I got stopped out...Just to big for that little of movement and all that chop.
The interesting stuff happened at the end of the day. I was in early on the big move down, however, I exited a bit premature as I did yesterday. Wasn't terrible b/c I think I did a pretty good job of going in and out, but it would've been nice to eliminate that 2nd trade and just be in the whole time until the 86.55 area. After the retrace happened, I reentered for a 2nd time, but got stopped out at B/E. I wasn't johhny on the spot enough to exit for a small profit but I caught most of that move...had I stayed in the 1st trade, it would've netted me about 65-70 ticks vs. the 53 I got from exiting and reentering.
The next trade I had all set-up to fade. I correctly identified where support needed to lay, had the order all set-up to go long at 86.52 and I just didn't send the order b/c of my lack of confidence. I need to just start pulling the trigger since Im in SIM mode and get my muscle memory working. Total bummer, would've been a really nice trade.
So then, I did a typical thing and took a crappy trade instead and lost 12 ticks...so chalk it up as 1 bad trade per day. Im really frustrated with this. I've got to eliminate this, it will absolute kill me in the long run. Before this this point I was up about 36 ticks and I thought about calling it a day, but I didn't...Again, still need to work on walking away...walking away would've saved me 12 ticks today and given me a little better win rate...Im pretty sure if I can eliminate or minimize that 1 bad trade I can get over the 50% win rate pretty consistently. So 12 ticks for the bad trade and 5-7 ticks for the too big stop...almost 20 ticks lost...ouch.
And I carried my bad trading over to the ES where I took 1 trade and lost 2 points...after that I called it quits...that was like 12:20.
To finish on a positive note, Im glad I got in early on the big move down...Im starting to identify those s/r areas better that have potentials for breakouts earlier allowing me to catch more of a move.
Total Trades: 9
Winners: 4
Losers: 4
B/E: 1
Avg. Win (ticks): 19.25
Avg. Loss (ticks): -13.25
Total Ticks: 24
Total Win Rate: 44.4%
Here is the chart for my trades towards the end of the day.
The interesting stuff happened at the end of the day. I was in early on the big move down, however, I exited a bit premature as I did yesterday. Wasn't terrible b/c I think I did a pretty good job of going in and out, but it would've been nice to eliminate that 2nd trade and just be in the whole time until the 86.55 area. After the retrace happened, I reentered for a 2nd time, but got stopped out at B/E. I wasn't johhny on the spot enough to exit for a small profit but I caught most of that move...had I stayed in the 1st trade, it would've netted me about 65-70 ticks vs. the 53 I got from exiting and reentering.
The next trade I had all set-up to fade. I correctly identified where support needed to lay, had the order all set-up to go long at 86.52 and I just didn't send the order b/c of my lack of confidence. I need to just start pulling the trigger since Im in SIM mode and get my muscle memory working. Total bummer, would've been a really nice trade.
So then, I did a typical thing and took a crappy trade instead and lost 12 ticks...so chalk it up as 1 bad trade per day. Im really frustrated with this. I've got to eliminate this, it will absolute kill me in the long run. Before this this point I was up about 36 ticks and I thought about calling it a day, but I didn't...Again, still need to work on walking away...walking away would've saved me 12 ticks today and given me a little better win rate...Im pretty sure if I can eliminate or minimize that 1 bad trade I can get over the 50% win rate pretty consistently. So 12 ticks for the bad trade and 5-7 ticks for the too big stop...almost 20 ticks lost...ouch.
And I carried my bad trading over to the ES where I took 1 trade and lost 2 points...after that I called it quits...that was like 12:20.
To finish on a positive note, Im glad I got in early on the big move down...Im starting to identify those s/r areas better that have potentials for breakouts earlier allowing me to catch more of a move.
Total Trades: 9
Winners: 4
Losers: 4
B/E: 1
Avg. Win (ticks): 19.25
Avg. Loss (ticks): -13.25
Total Ticks: 24
Total Win Rate: 44.4%
Here is the chart for my trades towards the end of the day.
Today was a total joke for me. It should've been an absolute great day but I wasn't taking trading seriously and totally unfocused. I got a new phone yesterday and I was playing a stupid video game on it this morning. Had a couple great breakout trades all set-up, got distracted and realized I wasn't watching my screen for 20 mins at a time and some huge moves happened without me where i was set-up all ready to go in.
I took some trades there is no way I would've taken if I was trading with real money. I stopped trading around 10:30 b/c I realized I wasn't paying attention and trading like total dog crap.
Im not going to count today in my stats. That may not be the right thing to do...but I need to take this more seriously if Im going to go back to live trading and eventually trading to make serious money. I really doubt any pros were playing on their phones while big moves were happening or at all for that matter.
Im just really disappointed and frustrated with myself today b/c it would've been a good day...would've kept my positive stats rolling but I chose instead to mess around. I treated today like I didn't care whether or not I made money or even lost money for that matter and this is 100% the wrong attitude.
Moving on, tomorrow is another day to look forward and start the positive ball rolling again.
I took some trades there is no way I would've taken if I was trading with real money. I stopped trading around 10:30 b/c I realized I wasn't paying attention and trading like total dog crap.
Im not going to count today in my stats. That may not be the right thing to do...but I need to take this more seriously if Im going to go back to live trading and eventually trading to make serious money. I really doubt any pros were playing on their phones while big moves were happening or at all for that matter.
Im just really disappointed and frustrated with myself today b/c it would've been a good day...would've kept my positive stats rolling but I chose instead to mess around. I treated today like I didn't care whether or not I made money or even lost money for that matter and this is 100% the wrong attitude.
Moving on, tomorrow is another day to look forward and start the positive ball rolling again.
Kinda a Ho-Hum day...I was busy off and on and in/out of the house all morning doing other stuff so my attention wasn't completely focused on my computer.
Oh, I guess I should sum up yesterday since I forgot to do that...Yesterday, was fairly uneventful. I was actually pretty happy with the way I traded since it was such a slow moving day. I was up about 20 ticks towards the end of the day and I took one more trading hoping for a breakout and it never came. I probably should've called it quits and been happy with my 20 ticks since everything was moving so slow. Here are the stats:
Total Trades: 6
Winners: 2
Losers: 2
B/E: 2
Avg. Win (ticks): 16.5
Avg. Loss (ticks): -11.5
Total Ticks: 10
Total Win Rate: 33.3%
On to today...so I missed a lot of the good breakouts today since I was gone...no biggy. It is still way more interesting watching the CL do its thing that the ES, just my opinion Anyway, my best trade of the day was here:
8:44- Short 85.64 Stop 85.74 Target 85.37 then 85.20
8:45- stop to B/E
8:55- Covered at 85.34
+30 ticks...
I cut this one short, I got nervous about it continuing back up and wiping all my profits so I exited when priced bounced off the 85.25 level and starting coming back up, i thought price wasn't going to make the push for 85.20 so I got out. Obviously it would've been better to let it run. NoDoji, gave me a tip about trailing stops so I may start trying that. Im not terribly mad about exiting for taking profits but I failed to reenter on the break below 85.20...I was messing around trying stuff...I think b/c I was unsure if I did the right thing from exiting. So I totally missed that great break down set-up and of course price fell off a cliff. I am pretty sure everyone and their mom saw that one coming...
Other than that it was pretty uninteresting day...too bad, could've been good. At the end of the day, I really had no idea what was going on. I don't have enough time in front of the CL yet, I saw the reversal setting up around 11:05-11:10 but didn't know or really want to handle it since it was such a big down day. In the morning I had 1 trade which just didnt work out and made a small mistake by not exiting sooner when i saw price not going my way which costs me a full stop out..still need work on that...and then 1 short trade where I misidentified a resistance area.
Here are the stats:
Total Trades: 8
Winners: 2
Losers:3
B/E: 3
Avg. Win (ticks): 23.5
Avg. Loss (ticks): -12.33
Total Ticks: 10
Total Win Rate: 25%
Here are the stats on the week (only a 4 day week, not counting my crappy/not paying attention wednesday):
Total Trades: 30
Winners: 12
Losers: 11
B/E: 7
Avg. Win (ticks): 19.25
Avg. Loss (ticks): 10.11
Total Ticks: 88
Ticks/Day:22
Total Win Rate: 39.98%
The winrate isn't bad, if it stays around 40% that gives me a bit of positive expactancy. But it needs to be more towards the 50% range to give me the profitablity Im shooting for. I still havent had a losing week since I started so thats good...averaging about 50 pts per week. I still really need to improve on eliminating the 1 bad trade per day. I had it again today, just I didnt take the trade b/c I was messing around. So I count that as a bad trade since I missed a good set-up.
50 ticks per day seems like a long ways away at this point. Just need to keep grinding away and getting better and hopefully I can get there.
Oh, I guess I should sum up yesterday since I forgot to do that...Yesterday, was fairly uneventful. I was actually pretty happy with the way I traded since it was such a slow moving day. I was up about 20 ticks towards the end of the day and I took one more trading hoping for a breakout and it never came. I probably should've called it quits and been happy with my 20 ticks since everything was moving so slow. Here are the stats:
Total Trades: 6
Winners: 2
Losers: 2
B/E: 2
Avg. Win (ticks): 16.5
Avg. Loss (ticks): -11.5
Total Ticks: 10
Total Win Rate: 33.3%
On to today...so I missed a lot of the good breakouts today since I was gone...no biggy. It is still way more interesting watching the CL do its thing that the ES, just my opinion
Anyway, my best trade of the day was here:8:44- Short 85.64 Stop 85.74 Target 85.37 then 85.20
8:45- stop to B/E
8:55- Covered at 85.34
+30 ticks...
I cut this one short, I got nervous about it continuing back up and wiping all my profits so I exited when priced bounced off the 85.25 level and starting coming back up, i thought price wasn't going to make the push for 85.20 so I got out. Obviously it would've been better to let it run. NoDoji, gave me a tip about trailing stops so I may start trying that. Im not terribly mad about exiting for taking profits but I failed to reenter on the break below 85.20...I was messing around trying stuff...I think b/c I was unsure if I did the right thing from exiting. So I totally missed that great break down set-up and of course price fell off a cliff. I am pretty sure everyone and their mom saw that one coming...
Other than that it was pretty uninteresting day...too bad, could've been good. At the end of the day, I really had no idea what was going on. I don't have enough time in front of the CL yet, I saw the reversal setting up around 11:05-11:10 but didn't know or really want to handle it since it was such a big down day. In the morning I had 1 trade which just didnt work out and made a small mistake by not exiting sooner when i saw price not going my way which costs me a full stop out..still need work on that...and then 1 short trade where I misidentified a resistance area.
Here are the stats:
Total Trades: 8
Winners: 2
Losers:3
B/E: 3
Avg. Win (ticks): 23.5
Avg. Loss (ticks): -12.33
Total Ticks: 10
Total Win Rate: 25%
Here are the stats on the week (only a 4 day week, not counting my crappy/not paying attention wednesday):
Total Trades: 30
Winners: 12
Losers: 11
B/E: 7
Avg. Win (ticks): 19.25
Avg. Loss (ticks): 10.11
Total Ticks: 88
Ticks/Day:22
Total Win Rate: 39.98%
The winrate isn't bad, if it stays around 40% that gives me a bit of positive expactancy. But it needs to be more towards the 50% range to give me the profitablity Im shooting for. I still havent had a losing week since I started so thats good...averaging about 50 pts per week. I still really need to improve on eliminating the 1 bad trade per day. I had it again today, just I didnt take the trade b/c I was messing around. So I count that as a bad trade since I missed a good set-up.
50 ticks per day seems like a long ways away at this point. Just need to keep grinding away and getting better and hopefully I can get there.
