Working on Consistent Profitability

So an interesting day for me. I had a huge day over in the CL. Got 82 ticks and I made 2 HUGE mistakes and 1 medium sized one...all total the mistakes cost me about 50 ticks...so would've been a gigantic (is gigantic bigger than huge?) day had I been more disiplined. My attention wasn't nearly what it should've been for the ES. Also, after the NYMEX closed, I should've just called it quits and forgotten about the ES for the rest of the day. At that point, I was pretty mentally checked out...and I think my last 2 trades really showed that...I should not have been in either one.

Trade 1:
7:08- short 1190.50 Stop 1192.25 Target 1186.00
7:28- buy to cover at 1190.00

+0.50 pts

Think my entry was a little late...I think I was a bit nervous about that support at 1190.75 and that is why I waited to get in where i did...I should've either pulled the trigger earlier or just held off for a better entry signal. Anyway, it turned to chop after a couple minutes and I had no idea what was going on so I just exited. I stepped away from the computer for like 2 minutes and of course it made the move I was looking for. I really needed to have a sell stop in place below that chop channel. Im really mad at myself for not putting the sell stop in place...I've been working with stop/limit orders mainly lately to try and take some of the emotion out and I just totally spaced it. Had I been on top of it, would've hit my original target and had a nice trade...but no.

Trade 2:

7:42- Short 1186.25 Stop 1187.75 Target 1181.25
8:06- Stop to B/E
8:12- Stopped out at B/E

+0.00 pts

So tried to get in the same move as the previous trade on the break below the LOD and targeted the gap fill. Not sure what to say, this one just ran out of steam. At this point Im pretty involved in whats going on with the CL...I shoulda just closed my ES screen and not even look at it.

Trade 3:

12:16- Short 1186.25 stop 1187.50 target 1183.00
12:25- Stopped out at 1187.50

-1.25 pts

Not too sure what I was thinking on this one...maybe just wanted to get in the market...not a very good trade. Im going to leave it at that. I believe it is a product of not being 100% focused and trying to jump into the ES after the NYMEX closed. Im not making excuses, I just need to do a better job of recongnizing when Im mentally not focused anymore and call it a day.

Trade 4:

12:26- Long 1188.25 Stop 1186.50 target 1192.75
12:36- Stopped out at 1186.25

-2.00 pts

Again, not a good trade...once the breakout happened I decided to flip long on the break above the previous resistance...I was a bit late to the party at that point...Another compounded error. I even wrote it was a bad trade after 1 minute of being in it...not sure why I didn't just exit. Got stopped out and called it quits for the day.

Total Trades: 4
Winners: 1
Losers: 2
B/E: 1
Total Points: -2.75
Avg. Win: $25
Avg. Loss: $81.25
Total Win Rate: 25%
Total Profits: -$137.50


I would've had a really uneventful day in the ES had I just called it quits. Anyway, the CL SIM is going really well. Im not sure if its my trading strategies, lack of emotion, the way the instrument trades or what...but so far it seems more suited for my trading. If Im going to trade both, I need to focus on each one and not do too much. I think I ran into that problem today. I don't have near enough time with CL yet, but I have a feeling in the next week or two, my trading is going to be shifted more towards the CL.
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Quote from tlow:

I don't have near enough time with CL yet, but I have a feeling in the next week or two, my trading is going to be shifted more towards the CL.
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If you ever choose to trade CL live, don't cheat. CL is not forgiving like ES.
 
Quote from NoDoji:

If you ever choose to trade CL live, don't cheat. CL is not forgiving like ES.
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What do you mean...cheat? Anything specific within this journal or my trading? I think I like the idea that its not forgiving...
 
Quote from tlow:

What do you mean...cheat? Anything specific within this journal or my trading? I think I like the idea that its not forgiving...
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1 contract CL is like trading 1000 shares of stock or a couple contracts ES, so I recommend avoiding averaging down, placing ridiculous stops, chasing entries if you miss a move, revenge trading, etc.
 
wow, today was a really tough day in terms of chop. The morning bounce I had huge trouble reading...and the same for the bounce up in the afternoon. Tried looking at 5m bars and longer time frames and really couldnt get a feel. In the afternoon, I quit trading around after the NYMEX closed b/c I really had no idea what was going on in the ES. Looking at the end of the day at 5m chart, practically every following bar is the opposite color. I know Im inexperienced and don't have a ton of screen time, but I would like to think it was tough for everyone. There is a double edge sword for me on these types of days...Im really glad Im on SIM, b/c no doubt I would've lost money today, but on the flip side, I would be interested to see how I managed the emotions of today trading live. But once again, I need to create that muscle memory of just walking away when I have no idea what to do.

Quick note on my CL trading, I got caught up in some similar chop and wound up with a fairly heavy losing day ...but it was more like death by 1000 cuts. I had a bunch of winners turn into losers and a couple others turn into B/E's. I definitely still need to work on my stops and entries with the CL and need WAY more time to get a better feel for it. The thing reverses really hard and I still don't have a great idea of when to exit and just take profits off the table if price isn't going to make it to my target. (well I guess I have that problem in general :))Really the best I could've done, if I was really on top of it would be about a b/e.

Trade 1 (only trade today on the ES)

8:11-Short 1178.25 Stop 1180.25 Target 1174.25
8:15- Stopped out at 1180.25

-2.00 pts

So looking back on this trade, Im not sure how I feel about it. It made a nice M formation but it was in the middle of somewhat of an uptrend, but the M also lined up with the chop from the early morning hours, which was in a slight downtrend. The other thing, I really did not do a good job of analyzing this trade before hand. I had a CL trade going on at the same time and I didn't give the ES trade my full attention. I need to be focused on one or the other when Im in the middle of a trade. I don't have the experience yet to be flipping back and forth monitoring mulitple trades.

Lastly, I had a really hard time looking for an entry on the upswing from the bottom at 6:45ish...to me it looked like a bunch of upward chop (if that makes sense). I knew it was going higher and most likely going to continue upwards, but I had no idea how to handle it. I think BigSnack's strategies of looking at micro S/R during the trend would've helped but I still can't totally see the small s/r lines yet.
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No worries man, I didn't take a single trade today at all anyway. I had resistance on the 4H at 82.25's, but price didn't set up well (for me) and created that huge channel. I was looking for a long into the fill this morning as well, but again not everything lined up to give me the confidence to get in. Oh well!

So it looks like 86's are getting SLAMMED overnight!
 
Again, another hard day in terms of the action...the past couple days and even week or so the breakout trades haven't been going so well...either the risk:reward isn't there, they reverse hard, whatever...Im not sure if its a product of the current market or what Im seeing or what. Im having a tough time reading the action right now. Im not really having the problem when Im watching the CL so I don't know if its b/c my attention is somewhere else or its just the ES doing its thing.

Another epiphany I had today, with what is going on, and how I haven't been doing that well, I decided I need to change my line of thinking a bit. My breakout trades usually work well but not so in the past couple weeks. The biggest thing Im seeing is the Risk:reward is weak or Im catching the end of the move. I think I need to go into trades looking to play off s/r more...meaning take a trade that finds s/r then also has a further opportunity for a breakout on top of that play off s/r. I think that will improve my r:r as well as keep me in better trades. Im still looking to take a pure breakout, but the past couple days they wouldn't worked out well. Last note on this, the r:r issue is another reason why I think I have trouble letting winners run. Correct me if Im wrong, but say I have a 3:1 ratio and price hits my target..if I stay in the trade and retraces even 1 pt I've just lost 33% of my profit (assuming its a straight 3:1). I believe this is the fundamental reason why Im struggling to hold onto winners.

Trade 1:

12:04- Long 1174.50 Stop 1173.00 Target 1179.00
12:26- Stop to B/E
12:54- Sell at 1179.00

+4.5 pts

So I took my own advice and tried a trade off s/r. We have a nice bull flag form up and price found support at the 1174.25 level so I decided to take it. Im not sure if I was late and should've gotten in before the run up to the top of the channel or if I did it right by waiting to see if the 1174.25 level would hold. Anyway, the 1174 level wound up not holding but the next support at 1173.50 did.Then it did like its being doing the past couple days, a somewhat choppy trend up. I may have been a bit conservative on the target, maybe could've gone for 1179.25 or 1179.50 but no biggy.

Total Trades: 1
Winners: 1
Losers: 0
B/E: 0
Total Points: 4.5
Avg. Win: $225
Avg. Loss: $0
Total Win Rate: 100%
Total Profits: $225
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Quote from tlow:

Again, another hard day in terms of the action...the past couple days and even week or so the breakout trades haven't been going so well...either the risk:reward isn't there, they reverse hard, whatever...Im not sure if its a product of the current market or what Im seeing or what. Im having a tough time reading the action right now. Im not really having the problem when Im watching the CL so I don't know if its b/c my attention is somewhere else or its just the ES doing its thing.
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Congrats, Tlow.

One important concept these days I learned from Brook's Price Action trading is to trade differently in trading range day and trending day, trading ranging and trending. You as a trader, have to always know and ID where you might be at.

These days are in trading range day. Bulls and bears are equally balanced. look at 15 min and 60 min chart. Market is stalling at the top of the channel. So if the intra-day is in a trading range, you don;t trade breakout, you fade the failed breakout. And in Trading range days, there are often 1 tick, 2 tick or even 3 tick stop runners. draw horizontal line on key S/R level, test of Hod or LOD, you can see them.

If you are in a TR, dont expect a huge profit run. once you get in in the middle of the range where looks like a pullback trade. Most likely you might only get a 1:1 ratio scalper's profit.

But when the day unfolds like a trend day, you should take all the BO set up!

I felt like this little tip can save me lots of money as a newbie! I now realized why so many of my past BO trades are failed, why so many of my profits turned to 0 in the past...

I don't want to be nosy. but please stick with one instrument when you figure out which one fits you the best... CL to me is too whippy and funky! :p
 
No trades today...I was totally engulfed with the CL and then took the rest of the day off to do personal stuff.

I think what's probably going to start happening is Im just going to focus on the CL and then trade the ES after the NYMEX closes...if at all. My concentration is much better when just looking at one instrument.

But pretty good day on the CL, +65 ticks with 1 major mistake that cost 14 ticks. All other mistakes were very very minor, so Im happy about that. After reading about how NoDoji is trading on the CL thread, it looks like she has a goal of 100 ticks/day, that seems really lofty for me at this point, but I think if I can consistently be in the 50-60 tick range for a bit and then long term hope for the 80-100 tick range.

Obviously, that is a long ways away and I need to first on focus on getting consistent in whatever Im trading. I really need to eliminate the major mistakes...that is the ongoing dilemma.

Im liking the CL much better. More opportunities for me to trade. I think that helps for a couple reasons

1.) I trade more so Im more focused on whats going on
2.) I see more mistakes and more things I do right
3.) I like the volatility and movement of it better

Right now, Im averaging 5-10 trades on the CL. I also don't feel like Im constantly waiting either so I don't get as anxious if I miss a move or if I make a mistake and Im totally on the wrong side of the trade b/c there will most likely be an opportunity to get back in or another set-up will come along shortly. I also think this helps with compounding my mistakes...there's not that feeling of trying to get it back or knowing Im wrong then trying to correct it right away. I think my 14 tick mistake was an example of that today. The following trades I had a couple 20+ tick winners and 1 B/E...just realized my mistake, accepted it, and moved on.

However, I still need a lot more time and stats with the CL.

So we will see how my winrate and points/day go with giving this a try.
 
Quote from tlow:


I think what's probably going to start happening is Im just going to focus on the CL and then trade the ES after the NYMEX closes...if at all. My concentration is much better when just looking at one instrument.
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I agree, I think ES was a poor match for your breakout strategy, its just to choppy and full of retraces. CL should work better, but I think /GC (gold) would work best for breakout trades.
 
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