Working on Consistent Profitability

Man, so close to having a huge day...but still wound up being a pretty good day. I didn't post yesterday, wasn't very exciting. For yesterday, I have a hard time trading slow moving slightly trending markets. I think the ability to see the PA better will come with time but Im being pretty conservative on days like yesterday. Here are the stats from yesterday:

Total Trades: 2
Winners: 1
Losers: 1
B/E: 0
Avg. Win (ticks): 30
Avg. Loss (ticks): -11
Total Ticks: 19
Total Win Rate: 50%

On to today. Im loving the CL...its right up my alley. Tons of movement, lots of break outs, not a lot of waiting around. My trading today was pretty good. But I got super frustrated towards 9:30. I had some really good trades that I just got jumpy and exited for B/E's and two others that were up 20+ ticks and turned into B/Es. I know thats the way it goes sometimes, but 4 trades in a row, I started to get really frustrated. On top of that, I missed a fill by 1 tick that would've been a 40 or so tick winner.

Here were some of my trades during that time:

7:18- Short 83.29 Stop 83.43 Target 83.05 then 82.89 then 82.71
7:25- Stop to B/E
7:25- Stopped out at B/E +0 ticks

7:38- Short 83.04 Stop 83.15 Target 83.71
7:41- Stop to 83.06
7:42- Stopped out at 83.06 -2 ticks....wish I was in the previous trade.

8:10- just didn't get filled had 83.18 limit order in...missed by 1 tick

9:04- Short 82.68 Stop 82.83 Target 82.31
9:11- Stop to B/E
9:18- Stopped out at B/E +0 ticks

So I took a break and IM glad i did b/c it helped me chill out a bunch. I know there is a lot of could woulda shoulda...but it just sucks having a streak of winners/nonwinners, if you will, pretty tough on the psyche.

But I did have a 55 tick winner...love hitting those runners :) Anyway, I definitely feel Im moving in the right direction...I don't think I had any terrible mistakes today, just a couple of medium sized ones that cost me some profits as well as my winrate. The way I've been going, its really only going to take making 1 trade or so better and I should be closure to the 50% range. That seems very doable and hopefully the 50+ticks/day will follow. I also think everyday Im seeing S/R levels better and better...I just need to keep that up and then learn to deal with the follow thru of the trade better.

Stats on the day:

Total Trades: 8
Winners: 3
Losers: 2
B/E: 3
Avg. Win (ticks): 27.67
Avg. Loss (ticks): -7
Total Ticks: 69
Total Win Rate: 37.5%
 
Today was a huge confidence crusher...I had most of my trades go for real small gains or breakevens. It was one of those 2 mouse gets the cheese days for me. All of these little double tops that formed on the way down, wound up stopping me out of all the good trades that eventuallly really broke down hard. Most of the time, I feel Im always doing the right thing by switching my stop to B/E once price moves 15-20 ticks in my direction. Today I would've been better off leaving my original stop in place.

After the 3rd B/E, my confidence was hugely shaken and I took a break from trading. I came back around 10:45, but I was still really not confident. I missed the good break out trade at 11:07 to go short at 81.12 but just didn't pull the trigger b/c of lack of confidence and afraid of getting stopped out.

I think I need to remember, that getting stopped out at B/E isn't a bad thing. So far my stats have shown that moving my stop is the right thing to do. Today it just didnt work out. Also, Getting a B/E is much better that getting a loser. Im not sure how I would've felt with 3 losers in a row vs 3 b/e's...not good Im sure.

But 2 days in a row, where I had a bit of my confidence shaken. Here are the stats:

Total Trades: 6
Winners: 2
Losers: 1
B/E: 3
Avg. Win (ticks): 8.5
Avg. Loss (ticks): 15
Total Ticks: 2
Total Win Rate: 33.3%


Again, 1 more positive trade and Im hovering around that 50% range. Today, the 2 profitable trades I did have were both small but my 1 trade i exited early b/c I got jumpy...would've been a 50 pt or so winner.

Im not sure how I should've handled this. It hit my first target but then came back up for a retest of resistance. Im thinking I shoud've either covered sooner for more profit, like say 20 ticks, or just held on for the ride since my stop was already at B/E.

In the end, Im not sure I would've even been in this trade in real life...not totally sure I would've gotten filled on this one, but still good practice.

8:11- Short 82.40 stop 82.55 Target 82.10 then 81.93 then 81.68
8:15- Stop to B/E
8:25- Cover at 82.30 +10 ticks
 
Well Im midday...and Im dealing a huge jolt of negativity in my confidence that really goes back to Tuesday. Just feeling really dejected like I can't do anything right at the moment. My trading isn't terrible and the results are terrible either but...

Its funny how fast your confidence levels can shift. I think the problem stems from watching winners turn into B/E's or losers that I get stopped out on. That was a huge problem yesterday as I kept watching winnners turn into losers and B/Es. It also stems back to when i was still trading live as well. I still get that deer in headlights feeling when Im trying to let a trade run and turns back the other way quickly...like uhh uhhh uhhh what do I do???? I feel like that is the major emotional/analytical issue to fix. As much as having 1 or 2 bad trades per day can hurt the stats and the profits, it doesn't shatter my confidence. Its more of a learning experience...but watching good trades turn into bad ones that is a different story.

Im also getting really sick of trading in the SIM. I felt that way for the last week or so, but I chalk it up to something I have to do to get ahead in the long run. I feel like Im stuck in SIM limbo right now..and I all Im thinking about is how do I get my 50 ticks/day so I can move on to live trading. I don't take losing well, and right now I feel like Im losing. Im actually still well into positive territory on the week but I don't really care about that...All I care is about the 50 ticks per day and fixing the issues to get there. A very lonely feeling when your confidence is shaken.

I am glad that Im getting some emotion out of the SIM. I didn't really think that would happen, but then again, I haven't taken the SIM as serious as I have until the past couple weeks. Im not really sure where to go from here. I want to keep trying to grind it out, but I don't want to keep up the same analytical mistakes that lead to emotional mistakes.
 
Tlow,

If you are disappointed in a b/e, maybe you are thinking too much about the money / ticks that you can make over the money / ticks that you can lose? I learned to love b/e stops because it meant I didn't lose any money to be wrong. Another step in the process for me was constantly analyzing what could have been the "best" entry, even after I am in the trade. If my entry price isn't at or near the best entry, I immediately prepare myself that I most likely WILL get stopped out for break even, unless a new level of support resistance fails that allows me to trail safely.

At least the results seem to be different now than before!
 
FWIW,

1. You sound a bit burned out. It's normal. Enjoy the weekend , get some excercise

2. Don't have daily profit targets. It's out of your control. Focus on trading well.

3. Sometimes i exit just to book profits. I consider it replenshing my psychological capital.

4. You do any scaling out ? try it in sim.

5. Moving a stop to b/e is arbitrary. Consider keeping the exit based on price action or whatever indicators you're using.

I'm still learning too so consider the source. Good trading !
 
Quote from bigsnack:

Tlow,

If you are disappointed in a b/e, maybe you are thinking too much about the money / ticks that you can make over the money / ticks that you can lose? I learned to love b/e stops because it meant I didn't lose any money to be wrong. Another step in the process for me was constantly analyzing what could have been the "best" entry, even after I am in the trade. If my entry price isn't at or near the best entry, I immediately prepare myself that I most likely WILL get stopped out for break even, unless a new level of support resistance fails that allows me to trail safely.

At least the results seem to be different now than before!
More...

Ya I hear what ur saying...Im not that torn up about it if I don't have a great entry or I get in towards a middle leg or something. Thats kinda how it was on Wednesday...but between that and watching winners that I feel are really good trades go to B/E, its a little much.

Im totally prepared for a b/e if im near a s/r area and my entry isn't great, that isn't so much the problem...its if it breaks that s/r area with some momentum and then comes back for a retest...do i get out? do i stay in and hope it bounces back off? Ahhh ahhh ahh...what do i do...thats the feeling.


Also, for whatever reason, I have this 20 tick thing in my head...when i see go 20+ ticks in my direction and then retrace back to a B/E, Im way more bent out of shape about it than say a 17 tick move. Not sure why that is.

Jas,

Im definitely feeling a bit burnt out. Im trying really really hard to focus on the process and analyzing my trades/emotions/etc. Im of the mindset of focusing on practice and then you are prepared for the big game and results will take care of themselves. But right now, I have this hurdle in my head of why can't I average 50ticks/day.

Also, at this point Im not interested in scaling in...I only plan to trade 1 contract for the foreseeable future. Maybe once I get a nice bankroll going but Im still way to early in the learning phase to think about multiple contracts.

I agree moving the stop to B/E is somewhat arbitrary. I do work on moving stops to local s/r areas at times..still working on reading that PA correctly :)

Focusing on trading well is hard for me being a perfectionist/not wanting to lose. I can't really say I've had a day where I walk away saying...I traded really really well today...don't think I would've done much different.
 
Where did the 50 ticks come from?

Trying to get more than the market has to give is a sure fire way to trade poorly. By default, you will overtrade and be focused on your P&L, not the market.

Have you considered reducing your frequency to one trade per day for a while? Maybe even going live and allowing yourself one trade per day with minimum risk (1 contract)?

Spend hours just watching the market, stalking and waiting for that great single trade to materialize. Execute, take profits, smile and then relax for the rest of the day (while still watching and learning).

Do not underestimate the ability of being able to stay out of markets when opportunity is simply not present :)

You should also consider locking in small profits since you`re just starting out. It can be good for your confidence to at least see some profits materialize.

Best regards,

Laissez Faire
 
Quote from Laissez Faire:

Where did the 50 ticks come from?

Trying to get more than the market has to give is a sure fire way to trade poorly. By default, you will overtrade and be focused on your P&L, not the market.

Have you considered reducing your frequency to one trade per day for a while? Maybe even going live and allowing yourself one trade per day with minimum risk (1 contract)?

Spend hours just watching the market, stalking and waiting for that great single trade to materialize. Execute, take profits, smile and then relax for the rest of the day (while still watching and learning).

Do not underestimate the ability of being able to stay out of markets when opportunity is simply not present :)

You should also consider locking in small profits since you`re just starting out. It can be good for your confidence to at least see some profits materialize.

Best regards,

Laissez Faire
More...

LF,

Im going to assume you haven't read thru the majority of my journal...There is absolutely no way I could sit in front of the computer and limit myself to 1 trade. I pretty much had only a couple trades on the ES when I was still live and I was going crazy waiting for set-ups to develop and that caused some bad trading.

I understand what you are saying about locking in profits to help the confidence, but I also want to get in the habit of letting winners run, exiting when price stalls ,etc. Im not sure I can do that if I just exit early and be happy with 20 ticks or something...perfect example is the move this morning...the thing moved almost 100 ticks straight down with no retrace...I dont' want to get out early just to satisfy my weak confidence level.

Lastly, the 50 ticks/day is totally arbitrary. Its just a goal I have set for myself to try and reach in the near term. I may have to modify it I may not. Also, I understand how stats work...maybe I was a little unclear on that...its not like Im waiting to get 50 ticks everyday and then calling it quits. I may have 100 tick day maybe a 10 tick day...whatever it may be they need to average out to 50 ticks over the long run. I feel like I don't over trade b/c of this. If anything I may undertrade because I don't want to lose money :)

Thanks for the input.
 
You`re assuming correctly :)

I`m also interested in big winners myself, but for me I have decided that it is better to be consistent taking small profits while learning to trade. One can still observe and see where price goes after exiting a trade.

I`m not sad if I exit with a 1 point profit and see the market go much further. It`s a very positive learning experience that also netted me a few dollars :) But hey, that`s me, not you ;)

Good luck!
 
Quote from tlow:

I think the problem stems from watching winners turn into B/E's or losers that I get stopped out on. That was a huge problem yesterday as I kept watching winnners turn into losers and B/Es. It also stems back to when i was still trading live as well. I still get that deer in headlights feeling when Im trying to let a trade run and turns back the other way quickly...like uhh uhhh uhhh what do I do???? I feel like that is the major emotional/analytical issue to fix. As much as having 1 or 2 bad trades per day can hurt the stats and the profits, it doesn't shatter my confidence. Its more of a learning experience...but watching good trades turn into bad ones that is a different story.
More...

One thing I did at length (and still do, so I'll have a log of info over time through varying market conditions) is to analyze each of my setups at the end of the day. I don't trade all my daily setups at this point in time, but my goal is to eventually do so. So I keep a spreadsheet of each setup with entry price trigger, stop, initial profit target, amount of profit in my favor at the first pivot, amount of profit/loss at the first pullback against me, and the end result of the trade.

This is helping me develop concrete rules for managing trades. As a result of doing this diligently each day, today I finally was able to sit through some price action in trades that before I would've exited b/e too soon and missed my profit target.

I was in a trade today that moved in my favor right out of the gate, then stalled and came back into the red. My friend made a comment to the effect of "If you think the reason for the trade is no longer good, just get out." And my response was, "The way I'll know it's no longer good is if my stop is hit." This was a big step forward for me because I tend to micromanage my trades.

I was going to let price, not what I think, tell me if the setup was no longer valid. I left my initial stop in place and was stopped out for the full loss. I didn't stop-and-reverse because the stop placement on a reverse trade was larger than my max allowable stop. I kept watching for the next signal I could take and I had no bias either direction.

Price set up a nice trap and I realized my initial trade was very much back in play. I got right back in at about the same price as before and the resulting profit was two and a half times the earlier loss.

It's because of the tedious bar-by-bar post market analysis I do every day that I'm gradually learning to trust the market and keep my emotions out of it.

What if you follow your rules and take 3 or 4 losses in a row, but then you let your frustration prevent you from trading the next valid setup? That could turn out to be the single trade that erases all the losses and puts you in the green.

I think you are still trying to find your way in terms of strategies. Learning to manage trades comes AFTER you find strategies that give you a positive edge over time. First develop an edge, then put in the time and do your homework, make notes, and hone it all down to a set of rules you can easily write out and follow without emotion.

It's a lot of work, but well worth it in the end.
 
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