Working on Consistent Profitability
- Thread starter tlow
- Start date
I shorted when I saw the reaction to ISM numbers... sold @1098.00 when ESU10 retraced... reloaded @1098.50 at the 10:20 bar, (stop 1099.75) and scooped up a full day's profit between those two trades.
I have only traded for 9 months, but I think it's all about your comfort level... if it scares you to short a daily uptrend, I would just stay out and buy long if it reverses.
I am a countertrend trader so i fade the gap looking to capture the mean reversion.
Again, not a bad trading day gain wise, but I give myself a "D" on the day. I didn't play the morning jobs report and I also wanted to make sure I was out of the market before the ISM numbers came out. Glad I did that. Made a couple mental errors during the day a took a trade at the wrong time at the end of the day that almost wiped out the little profits I did have on the day...that is where the bad grade is coming from. I honestly don't feel good about any of the profits I made today because of bad trading.
Trade 1:
6:34- Long 1101.00 Stop 1099.25 Target 1108.00 or 1104.00 if momentum dies or before ISM report
6:41- Move stop to 1102.50 to lock in some profits
6:45- Stopped out at 1102.50
+1.50 pts
So I violated one of Volente's rules about going long on a gap up. A double bottom had formed in that uptrend with pretty solid support at the 1099.50 level so I decided to take the trade on the positive swing. I had a target of 1108.00, but I knew it would take some momentum to get there, especially with the big gap underneath. I really failed at this trade because I didn't take profits at the 1103.5-1104.00 level when momentum died and price reversed. Not happy about leaving 1-1.5 pts on the table because of a mental/emotional/greed error.
Trade 2:
10:40- Long 1102.00 Stop 1099.75 Target 1108.00
10:56- Sell 1102.50
+0.50 pts
This was a really weak breakout trade...there was no momentum in the market. I should've taken the trade where I marked on the chart. I was really unsure because I had this 1100 marker stuck in my head and it showed by taking a weak breakout. I just exited as soon as the upward momentum died, plus I had to do some personal stuff so it I wasn't about to babysit this crappy trade.
Trade 3:
12:30- Long 1102.00 Stop 1099.25 Target 1108.00 if momentum otherwise 1104.00
12:44- Sell 1102.25
+0.25 pts
Stupid Stupid Entry...I didn't wait for that long red bar to close as I was in during the downward long red bar. So dumb. I got really lucky I didn't wipe all my profits for the day. Poor risk:reward ratio. Not what Im looking for. Not sure if I got impatient as it made the push to 1102.00 or what, but this could've been a costly error. I think the trade could've been ok if I waited and went in after the pullback, but since the market was closing in less than 15mins it probably wasn't going to make a huge run to make the trade worthwhile...Same mistake as before of trying to get that 1 last trade in. Gotta stop doing that.
As I stated before I still want to do some backtesting and sim trading about Bol and volente's rules/guidelines that occured the past couple of days. The fade trade today would have been a really good trade...but was it becaue of the poor ISM#'s? That's what the PA was telling me? Gotta look into both ideas more and when they are happen at the same time. Backtesting sucks and is painfully slow on ToS...might be more worthwhile to do it on the SIM.
Total Trades: 3
Winners: 3
Losers:0
B/E:0
Total Points: +2.25
Avg. Win: 37.50
Avg. Loss: 0
Total Win: 100%
Total Profits: $112.50
For the week:
Total Trades: 11
Winners: 7
Losers:3
B/E:1
Total Points: +5.25
Avg. Win: 42.5
Avg. Loss: 35
Total Win: 45%
Total Profits: $262.50
It feels good to be positive on the week...but still made some BAD mistakes. I give myself a "C" overall for the week. I think Tuesday the 31st could've been a really good day for me had I not been dealing with platform issues. But, regardless of outside forces I dealt with, it is nice to see a profit and creaping up towards the 50% win rate with a bit of positive expected profit. Maybe I am keeping my mistakes smaller or maybe I just got lucky (defintely got lucky on a couple trades with week). Still have lots and lots to learn...still need more screen time. I feel like my emotions were better controlled this week but I think many of my errors and mistakes came from emotional/metal/concentration problems. If I ever do go more "fulltime" I am going to have to address the outside forces issues more...but that is nowhere in sight, so for now, I have to just keep my mistakes and emotions under control and hopefully I can move more towards being consistently profitable.
Trade 1:
6:34- Long 1101.00 Stop 1099.25 Target 1108.00 or 1104.00 if momentum dies or before ISM report
6:41- Move stop to 1102.50 to lock in some profits
6:45- Stopped out at 1102.50
+1.50 pts
So I violated one of Volente's rules about going long on a gap up. A double bottom had formed in that uptrend with pretty solid support at the 1099.50 level so I decided to take the trade on the positive swing. I had a target of 1108.00, but I knew it would take some momentum to get there, especially with the big gap underneath. I really failed at this trade because I didn't take profits at the 1103.5-1104.00 level when momentum died and price reversed. Not happy about leaving 1-1.5 pts on the table because of a mental/emotional/greed error.
Trade 2:
10:40- Long 1102.00 Stop 1099.75 Target 1108.00
10:56- Sell 1102.50
+0.50 pts
This was a really weak breakout trade...there was no momentum in the market. I should've taken the trade where I marked on the chart. I was really unsure because I had this 1100 marker stuck in my head and it showed by taking a weak breakout. I just exited as soon as the upward momentum died, plus I had to do some personal stuff so it I wasn't about to babysit this crappy trade.
Trade 3:
12:30- Long 1102.00 Stop 1099.25 Target 1108.00 if momentum otherwise 1104.00
12:44- Sell 1102.25
+0.25 pts
Stupid Stupid Entry...I didn't wait for that long red bar to close as I was in during the downward long red bar. So dumb. I got really lucky I didn't wipe all my profits for the day. Poor risk:reward ratio. Not what Im looking for. Not sure if I got impatient as it made the push to 1102.00 or what, but this could've been a costly error. I think the trade could've been ok if I waited and went in after the pullback, but since the market was closing in less than 15mins it probably wasn't going to make a huge run to make the trade worthwhile...Same mistake as before of trying to get that 1 last trade in. Gotta stop doing that.
As I stated before I still want to do some backtesting and sim trading about Bol and volente's rules/guidelines that occured the past couple of days. The fade trade today would have been a really good trade...but was it becaue of the poor ISM#'s? That's what the PA was telling me? Gotta look into both ideas more and when they are happen at the same time. Backtesting sucks and is painfully slow on ToS...might be more worthwhile to do it on the SIM.
Total Trades: 3
Winners: 3
Losers:0
B/E:0
Total Points: +2.25
Avg. Win: 37.50
Avg. Loss: 0
Total Win: 100%
Total Profits: $112.50
For the week:
Total Trades: 11
Winners: 7
Losers:3
B/E:1
Total Points: +5.25
Avg. Win: 42.5
Avg. Loss: 35
Total Win: 45%
Total Profits: $262.50
It feels good to be positive on the week...but still made some BAD mistakes. I give myself a "C" overall for the week. I think Tuesday the 31st could've been a really good day for me had I not been dealing with platform issues. But, regardless of outside forces I dealt with, it is nice to see a profit and creaping up towards the 50% win rate with a bit of positive expected profit. Maybe I am keeping my mistakes smaller or maybe I just got lucky (defintely got lucky on a couple trades with week). Still have lots and lots to learn...still need more screen time. I feel like my emotions were better controlled this week but I think many of my errors and mistakes came from emotional/metal/concentration problems. If I ever do go more "fulltime" I am going to have to address the outside forces issues more...but that is nowhere in sight, so for now, I have to just keep my mistakes and emotions under control and hopefully I can move more towards being consistently profitable.
Great job on the TRADE 1. I was on the other side of your trade. So clearly you took my money! It's a beautiful pattern although a bit risky. 3rd wave of the up move with the resistance overhead and reports come out at 7:00
A very risky trade. the trend has been extended so much with oversupply on top. Could only be a quick scalp since overall the trend is strong.
Great job for the porfitable week!
Thank you for giving me credit!
Hey tlow,
I'm looking at your numbers for today, and even though you don't like your trade executions, you made over 40% of the week's profit today...
Trade 1: I think you spotted the loss of momentum well and you scored a profit, even if you didn't like the entry... in terms of entry, I'm personally very hesitant to do anything before 10am ET unless there is a lot of momentum behind the underlying move... we didn't have much of that this am... actually I was hoping for a gap fade as well when the market opened, but it just kindof played around until the ISM numbers at 10...
I think ES is very finicky between 9:30-10am ET and 15:00-16:00 ET... I don't like those times unless a trade is screaming at me.
Trade 2: You had the 20-bar EMA on the first 9/3 chart, but I don't see it on the last one... one of the things that NoDoji taught me (and made a big difference so far) is that crosses with a close above or below the 20-bar EMA are significant... if it sustains for a few more bars, take it as confirmation of direction... my chart shows it closed over the 20-bar at 12:00, so you could have gotten in at say 12:35-ish ET (1098.75) and rode it all the way up.
Trade 3: I get nervous about entering or holding in the 15:30 - 16:00 ET timeframe... ES seems to turn on a dime in this area...
Just some thoughts from another newb... have a great weekend!
\gg
tlow: (call me Boli
)RE: TRIN 0.5 - no short?
This is what I posted to Matcha:
We need to look at the context in price action... not just look at the TRIN value itself. Yes it was bullish, but a bulk of the run was done on Wed, and yesterday. The bulls cannot run forever. I would expect today being a bit of a range after the 5:30 am shoot-up. So shorting while there is a sign of reversal can be a viable trade today.
The ES made a M top formation with 1100 being a longer time-frame big resistance. (But it did go to around 1104). The third day of a bullish run since Wednesday, it's likely to sell off a bit at the high.
Looking at your trades today... I have a suggestion. The environment has gotten into a fair volatility. You may want to try to capture the intraday swings. For ES that would be 4 to 5 points minimum. Instead of having the tendency to shoot for 2 points. For example, if you plan to play a reversal, and you play it right, you should try to target it for 5 points. Because doing a 2 point trade on ES would be scalping, pretty much. Eat like a bird. You need to eat a lot to survive.
But the bulls have not retired though. So good opps to long existed aroung 8:00 am or so.
Quote from Bolimomo:
tlow: (call me Boli
RE: TRIN 0.5 - no short?
This is what I posted to Matcha:
We need to look at the context in price action... not just look at the TRIN value itself. Yes it was bullish, but a bulk of the run was done on Wed, and yesterday. The bulls cannot run forever. I would expect today being a bit of a range after the 5:30 am shoot-up. So shorting while there is a sign of reversal can be a viable trade today.
The ES made a M top formation with 1100 being a longer time-frame big resistance. (But it did go to around 1104). The third day of a bullish run since Wednesday, it's likely to sell off a bit at the high.
Looking at your trades today... I have a suggestion. The environment has gotten into a fair volatility. You may want to try to capture the intraday swings. For ES that would be 4 to 5 points minimum. Instead of having the tendency to shoot for 2 points. For example, if you plan to play a reversal, and you play it right, you should try to target it for 5 points. Because doing a 2 point trade on ES would be scalping, pretty much. Eat like a bird. You need to eat a lot to survive.
But the bulls have not retired though. So good opps to long existed aroung 8:00 am or so.
Ok Boli
Ya...your insight/tips are very true. I think that is why I was so torn the other day with going short when the TRIN was at around .2-.3. That is where my inexperience/lack of trading/education/whatever is coming to the forefront. As you say, the bulls can't run forever, and the fade trade was definitely there...wish I had taken it...but live and learn.
Yes I am getting stuck in this 2 point trading range...it totally sucks and I know it. I need to working on picking better trades that have more potential for the 4-5 point moves. I keep getting stuck on some of these trades where I have a fairly tight stop and may get 1-3 points so the R:R looks ok so I go for it...but in the end, as you say, its mainly a scalp trade. I also still need to work on stops and letting winners run, its so hard to resist taking profit when I know I have 2-3 points in the bag vs. letting it ride out. Not sure how to fix other than experience and keep watching the charts/tape at this point.
I am also realizing the more I learn and watch the more I have running through my head. Still need to try and keep it simple and not over analyze things...I think that could be a problem for me in the future, if not already.
EDIT: Sorry Matcha and GG...I missed your guys' posts. Thanks for the encouragement. Today felt like a loss since I traded so poorly...which I guess is a good thing...don't have false hope that things are A-Okay
GG, I was watching the 5m chart w/ the 20ema most of the day, I just didn't post it on the tick chart...another reason why I got so mad at myself for that last trade...totally the wrong time to enter.Tlow,
As we have briefly discussed, here is a chart showing some great areas of support turned resistance and resistance turned support for today. There are a few places where there was no fill, but for me this has been the easiest concept to embrace during the learning process. The breakout of the 1099 area was a good entry, but the retest of support turned resistance allowed for an extremely tight stop, no retest of the entry, and a chance to trail your stop to lock in profits on the way down. Just a little food for thought, take care
As we have briefly discussed, here is a chart showing some great areas of support turned resistance and resistance turned support for today. There are a few places where there was no fill, but for me this has been the easiest concept to embrace during the learning process. The breakout of the 1099 area was a good entry, but the retest of support turned resistance allowed for an extremely tight stop, no retest of the entry, and a chance to trail your stop to lock in profits on the way down. Just a little food for thought, take care
BigSnack,
Ya thats why I wish I had taken the trade...you really had two shots to get in this trade and I didn't take either one of them...that's why Im kicking myself. In my mind, the first go around would've been good for 2 pts or so and the 2nd go around good for 2-4 points.
Hindsight, if I had been in before the retest, I think I would have exited when it turned back up and thats what I need to work on...just leave the stop and let the trade run its course.
I have a hard time still deciding between what is going to be a strong breakout/down with no retest vs. something that may try and come back to retest the support/resistance.
Ya thats why I wish I had taken the trade...you really had two shots to get in this trade and I didn't take either one of them...that's why Im kicking myself. In my mind, the first go around would've been good for 2 pts or so and the 2nd go around good for 2-4 points.
Hindsight, if I had been in before the retest, I think I would have exited when it turned back up and thats what I need to work on...just leave the stop and let the trade run its course.
I have a hard time still deciding between what is going to be a strong breakout/down with no retest vs. something that may try and come back to retest the support/resistance.