Working on Consistent Profitability

Quote from Blotto:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2833684&highlight=gap+up#post2833684



I did this on 1 September, Long 1062 at the open with a 2 point stop, closed 1082.
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The link says nothing about your entry or stop. Just some vague bullshit guess about the market will gap up.



Show me your real time post for this sept 1 trade.


This is all I could find which was posted after the close.

Once again another hindsight trade.


Quote from Blotto:

Ignore what you can draw on in hindsight. Open yourself to the possibility that the best trade was to go long at 09.30 today and hold until the close.
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So far all you have proven is you made a RISKY hindsight trade with a 2 point stop in front of a economic number which was gambling and not trading and posted it after the close of trading.




You did this same crap on the es journal. My favorite was when you would post actual trades and then delete them when they turned into losers.


Keep digging yourself deeper mister 20 point a day after the fact gap master.
 
Guys! For like the 10th time...i don't care who is right and who is wrong...i dont care how much money someone made in the P/L thread. Please take this somewhere else if you want to prove each other right or wrong.
 
Quote from jinxu:

I've found some of Blotto's old blotters from the beginning of the year in the P/L Thread:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=187235

He's legit. He's making good money.
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No wonder he dislikes percentages. If you look at every blotter he posted, at least 70% of the ones where he traded ES were losing days in it. If you add up every ES total in the posted blotters he is not even positive trading ES period. I came up with -200 for ES trading. But yea I really do believe he makes 20 points in a day chasing ES in the direction of the gap. Thankfully he was profitable in his other contracts to offset this.


Are you still a losing ES trader Blotto ?


Is that why you stopped posting in the pnl thread after march ?
 
Quote from tlow:

Guys! For like the 10th time...i don't care who is right and who is wrong...i dont care how much money someone made in the P/L thread. Please take this somewhere else if you want to prove each other right or wrong.
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It's like trying to make water flow uphill. You could learn a lot from me but I won't teach you anything.
 
Guys, let's not forget this is tlow's journal and he has made simple requests numerous times. Whether or not you agree, if you can't abide then please take your comments elsewhere. I know some of you mean well but I will not let this journal turn into another ET pissing match. Thanks.
 
tlow:

I want to make 2 points on yesterday's gap open. (9/1/10)


1. Started out... Asia bullish. Europe bullish. European indices were mostly up 2%+.

Note that the S&P cash was gapping up only about 10 points from overnight. 10/1060... only about 1%. If the US market gets in par with Europe, it would need to go up by 20 to 30 points. So the 10 point opening... still have room to go up.

2. The index opened almost above the peak from Fri/Mon. And quickly went up.

In this kind of opening, it would not be wise to fade the gap (Asia bullish, Europe bullish).

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RE: "trading knowledge is extremely difficult to transfer"

It is true. Even with willing teachers and willing students, the knowledge transfer may not be easy. One has to seek his/her own path in learning.

You can only take what others would give. No more. Some would give more, some would give none. That's okay. That's the real world.

I, time permiting, share some of my thoughts and my analysis. Take it or not take it, I don't mind either way. I certainly would not think that the more people trade the way I think the market will gang up on me. :) (What a dream...) LOL
 
Quote from volente_00:

You are trading a vehicle that exhibits quite a bit of mean reversion.
By chasing price and shorting breakdowns and longing breakouts you will get stopped out the majority of the time.
I will give you a simple rule that will help you over the long run.
In ES, never short it if the market has gapped down from the previous S&P close. If the gap fills that day then you can take a short.
If cash is gapped up then never enter a long with the gap underneath. If the gap fills that day then you can take a long.
You may miss some opportunities for using this rule but over time it will outweigh them by saving your butt.
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Hey Vol,

How do you handle gap up days like today...and the 1st for that matter? Obviously, gapped on the open with news...are news days excluded?
 
Volente, Bol, or anyone else who wants to chime in...a little mid day question for you guys...

Bol, per your suggestions, don't short at market with the TRIN around 0.5 (very bullish)...
On a day like today where you have both "good" news and bad...the PA is very clearly formed a double top with 1 swing lower. It seemed like a very obvious short entry point around 1099.00 either A. where it broke below the midpoint of the double top or B. after the retrace.
Thoughts?

Also, I am in the process of backtesting/looking into volentes gap rule on news vs. staying long/short with the TRIN at either end of the spectrum. Obviously, this morning both rules are applying with the gap up (so no longs via Volente until gap closes) and the TRIN around 0.5 (no shorts via Bol). More thoughts?
 
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