Working on Consistent Profitability

[tlow]

Hmm just rereading what I wrote about the 2nd trade. I think I made the wrong move, probably would've been more appropriate to go long on the second bottom bounce at around 1111.50 and have a tight stop of like 1110.25-.50
...but again, this is why I want to start taking some of these slower moving trades...need to learn

 

[GatlingGun]

Quote from tlow:


Trade 1:
8:43- Short 1115.50 Stop 1118.00 Target 1110.50
9:29- Buy to cover 1111.75 via Iphone :O

+3.75 pts

...

How do you full time guys handle normal life stuff like Dr's appts/family/lunches/etc?

tlow, good snag with the iphone ...

Lunches are a bit challenging in pacific time... most traders are returning from lunch on the East coast by 13:30 and that's like 10:30am your time...

For Dr appointments, auto inspections, etc... basically anything that needs to be scheduled in advance, I use the Friday before options expiration (third Friday)... IMHO, those are often goofy trading days anyway...

 

[Bolimomo]

Quote from tlow:

Hmm just rereading what I wrote about the 2nd trade. I think I made the wrong move, probably would've been more appropriate to go long on the second bottom bounce at around 1111.50 and have a tight stop of like 1110.25-.50

Definitely tlow. I suggest that you do some studying on Market Profile or volume profile or price histogram kind of material.

(See enclosed) The POC is way above... at 1117 or so. My profile chart was as of 13:00 stock market close (PDT) so the histograms are off a little bit. But I will bet that at 11:00 am, the POC was still way above and the price 1112 was below the value area. You thought it was a "break" to the down side. But many traders bet on it that it will return to the mean (POC), or the value area.

The second low is the second mouse. Safer entry.

 

[tlow]

Boli,

Its funny you mention that...I was just going over it. In hindsight, I really don't know what I was thinking now that Im looking at everything, maybe thinking short...not sure. Im no market profile expert, but I definitely take a look...and its funny, I was even looking at it in the 5m chart when I went into the 2nd trade(per my notes), and there was that little void (not sure what you call it) around the 1113.50-1115.00 range, where price...surprise surprise...stalled out.

I see a lot of you guys talking about Market profile and I've noticed Im definitely looking at it more the past week or two. Seems like a good guide and need to learn more about it.

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from tlow:

Hmm just rereading what I wrote about the 2nd trade. I think I made the wrong move, probably would've been more appropriate to go long on the second bottom bounce at around 1111.50 and have a tight stop of like 1110.25-.50
...but again, this is why I want to start taking some of these slower moving trades...need to learn

Hey tlow,

That first trade was a perfect "second mouse gets the cheese" trade. In a trend you always want to think continuation until price says otherwise and you waited for that. Counter-trend trading can work well, but if you slip up just a little you can get bit (as I did this morning), so waiting for a confirmed reversal makes it so much easier.

The place where you had your second trade was definitely a counter-trend long setup (counter to the micro-trend, in line with the macro-trend). The entire morning's run up was reversed and price broke down, but once a higher low off a LOD is put in, it generally means those who really wanted to sell are likely done selling at least for a while, and buyers feel "safe" because they know where the near-term support is, so you want to think long at that point, and if the HL holds, expect at least a break of previous resistance.

 

[Went Fishing]

Tlow

You've been doing well. Nice #1 trade, impressive "wireless" exit. I'm still trying to figure out how to turn off my speaker!! How did you come up with your initial target on that trade? Good job dumping the #2 (no pun intended)(see chart) I've bailed on many trades because I didn't like the way they smelled (still no pun intended) some good ones. Good trades have a habit of being good trades a bar or two later. Maybe "some" of the profit is gone but maybe the direction is more apparent. Keep up the good work and don't forget about the Retail Sales numbers this morning.

 

[tlow]

Hey Guys,

Thanks for the comments...what you are all writing makes perfect sense. Its funny, even though Im keeping a journal, there are still those, "what was I thinking moments"...go thru the journal to try and figure it out but nothing...

So much to think about as a newbie

WentFishing,

My target was right around the afterhours gap up point at 1110ish. I placed it a couple ticks above there.

 

[tlow]

Pretty much a soonzer for me today. Only 1 trade. I had something pop up at 7:45 this morning and I was gone till a little after 10:00 so missed the long slow move up to the HOD. Then had some other stuff to deal with around 12:35...so not involved in that other swing down. In hindsight, Im not sure I would have been in the market in the morning anyway. It was a pretty slow move up and I think the only move I "may" have taken is when it broke out above the 1118.00 range. Probably good for 2-3 points but oh well. Similar deal at the end of the day, probably would've gone short around the break below 1118.00...hmmm, i guess that is 3-6 points total i missed out on because I was doing other stuff. I wasn't really thinking about it much during the day, but now that Im writing this...kinda a bummer, probably would've hit my 3 point average for the day goal. I guess hindsight is always nice

Trade 1:
10:28- Short 1117.50 Stop 1120.00 Target 1114.00
10:47- Move stop to 1119.00
11:38- Stopped out Buy to cover at 1119.00

-1.5 pts

So Im definitely getting a better feel/understanding for the midday doldrums. Im realizing that I can't have quite as lofty goals/targets unless I want to widen my stops and hold it for a longer time. I was in this trade for over an hour and man was it painful to watch. I had to do other stuff for a couple minutes at a time b/c the market action was so slow. Wanted to bang my head against the desk a couple times I don't think the trade was that terrible, however, I think if Im taking these trades in the middle of the day I need to shoot for smaller targets and make it more a scalp type trade when there is zero momentum. In my journal, I wrote a bunch of "zzzzzzz's" after I had held it for like 45mins, even wrote down I should probably exit since market is moving so slow...would've been for a break even or maybe a small profit.

I think after the initial break below 1118.00 it still had good downward push but then once it hit the 1115.00 area it just stopped and volume and momentum died. Again, if doing these midday trades and volume/momentum dies I should probably just get out.

Tomorrow's another day...but of course I will be gone in the morning with a follow up appt, then i have to get on a plane...so maybe just a 1/4 day. Errr, Im getting annoyed with missing trading time, feel like Im lengthing my learning process. Guess thats life.

Now that Im done writing this, Im a little more frustrated that I only had 1 trade as well as missed out on a couple winners...Booooo. Its hard to grade myself on days like today where I was gone/distracted/other priorities.

I will give myself a "C-" for the 1 trade since I didn't exit when i should've and even wrote down to exit.

Total Trades: 1
Winners: 0
Losers: 1
B/E:0
Total Points: -1.5
Avg. Win: $0
Avg. Loss: $75.00
Total Win: 0%
Total Profits: -$75.00

Lastly, what did u guys think about the double top formation and shorting before it hit say 1119.00ish? Looking at it EOD, it seems like it would be hard to short it at/around the top...meaning I would need some more confirmation that it was going to continue to go down.

 

[Matcha]

Quote from tlow:



Total Trades: 1
Winners: 0
Losers: 1
B/E:0
Total Points: -1.5
Avg. Win: $0
Avg. Loss: $75.00
Total Win: 0%
Total Profits: -$75.00

Hi, Tlow.

First of all. Congrats on great results! For a new trader, you did amazing so far and I love how you set up your chart!

By looking at your past few trades, just a few thoughts from another newbie, a struggling newbie. Feel free to ignore them if you think those don't apply to you!

1. are you a counter-trend trader? or trend trader? I assume you want to ride the intra-day swing? Sometimes I see you counter-trend trade.... Just be on one side to start. trying to do both are going to kill you! Unless you are very mature trader like Nodoji and Boli, you have done all your analysis on different setups for different type of players in the market
2. what's your entry strategy? are you working on bar by bar analysis on 5 min? or you are look for d/b pattern on tick chart to entry? from the entry bar you highlighted, looks like you sometimes enter a little too early, sometimes you entered a little too late. I know it's hard to get a precise entry. But always, you entry/exit got to "look like" a strategic play! Take today's trade as an example. looks like you are entering on a red candle which makes lower low? you should have waited for a retrace and trend bar(downside) as a reversal bar then place a sell stop one tick below the reversal bar. Also look for a bit more confirmation-topping tails on reversale bar. In this case, the reversal bar with topping tail would be the red candle with large body and toping tail 3 bars later as your entry bar.
3. count the legs/pushes/waves/. Boli trained me on this. take today's trade as example again. Your entry is the 3rd leg of the move. it's getting old...(quote from Boli) even though its a great short signal, you probably couldn't expected too much move on it. I see your target, your target on 1114.50 is reasonable. It's the Pivot point of the day. But when you see it's develop the D/B and bottoming tails on 1116 level. you can see that demand is picking up. so you either bail the trade or you tighten up your stop. Plus we are still in a bull market. so be extra cautious on the 3rd wave bearish move. If it's the on the first wave or even the 2nd, you could risk on not moving stops since the momentum might still be there. ALso the 1116 leve is the 50% of FIB retrace. For YM price tended to retrace at 50% level.

Sorry, my writing skill isn't very good.

You are doing a very impressive job not to overtrade. I have been trading for more than 6 month in SIM, I still overtrade sometimes. When I overtrade, I act crazy and I trade my brain out!!!


Good luck tomorrow!

 

[tlow]

Quote from Matcha:

1. are you a counter-trend trader? or trend trader? I assume you want to ride the intra-day swing? Sometimes I see you counter-trend trade....

I really don't want to define myself as a this or a that...which may be a mistake given that I am just learning, but I'd rather take set-ups as they come and not focus on only one set-up at a time then moving on once that set-up is mastered...again, I know I "should" just stick to trend following to start, but I like to learn on a broader scale as I go. We shall see how this works out in the long run. I may have to move to only trend-following, countering, whatever, if I make bad mistakes or stop progressing

2. what's your entry strategy? are you working on bar by bar analysis on 5 min? or you are look for d/b pattern on tick chart to entry? from the entry bar you highlighted, looks like you sometimes enter a little too early, sometimes you entered a little too late. I know it's hard to get a precise entry. But always, you entry/exit got to "look like" a strategic play! Take today's trade as an example. looks like you are entering on a red candle which makes lower low? you should have waited for a retrace and trend bar(downside) as a reversal bar then place a sell stop one tick below the reversal bar. Also look for a bit more confirmation-topping tails on reversale bar. In this case, the reversal bar with topping tail would be the red candle with large body and toping tail 3 bars later as your entry bar.

I mainly work on the tick chart but if things aren't moving very fast or I need better/more confirmation I will look at the 5 min chart. In general, yes, I enter too early or too late. I have that written down in my personal journal like crazy. I realize every time I do that I am leaving 0.25-.50 pts on the table. I am hoping this will develop better over time, but I really really need to work on this. Lastly, take my tick charts with a grain on salt, a lot of times at the end of the day, the times and ticks don't line up with each other....obviously a platform issue that will be addressed in the future. However, with that said, I like to take breakouts/down above/below resistance and sometimes I don't wait for the bar to close, I may be watching T&S to see momentum or whatever, this is where a lot of discretion comes in. This also may be my problem for being early/late to the party with entry.

3. count the legs/pushes/waves/. Boli trained me on this. take today's trade as example again. Your entry is the 3rd leg of the move. it's getting old...(quote from Boli) even though its a great short signal, you probably couldn't expected too much move on it. I see your target, your target on 1114.50 is reasonable. It's the Pivot point of the day. But when you see it's develop the D/B and bottoming tails on 1116 level. you can see that demand is picking up. so you either bail the trade or you tighten up your stop. Plus we are still in a bull market. so be extra cautious on the 3rd wave bearish move. If it's the on the first wave or even the 2nd, you could risk on not moving stops since the momentum might still be there. ALso the 1116 leve is the 50% of FIB retrace. For YM price tended to retrace at 50% level.

Thanks for the tips...I had a lot of what you wrote, written down when I entered the trade, especially the part about the fib retracement. Then went on further to write down it was "weak trade to begin with" once I entered the trade so I agree that I definitely should've exited when the selling pressure stopped. Also, you bring up another good point that I still need lots of work on, which is moving stops. I thought about moving the stop to B/E instead of the 1119.00 level but didn't. Need more practice/screentime with this. The more I read/learn, the more I realize, this is probably one of the hardest things to master as a newbie or understand how ones specific trading is effected by moving stops, if at all.