Will the Fed pause on Tuesday?

[Rearden Metal]

<b>THEN:</b>

Quote from BrandNewTrader:


Anyway, I'm milking the fvcking screws out of this one. Money time.

Quote from BrandNewTrader:

I've definitely invested a signficant portion of my net worth - I'd say 50%, and I plan on possibly investing more.

I would put down up to a 100k on this trade if I could. Unfortunately I'm young and haven't had the chance to amass savings... but I have good credit though ; )

Quote from BrandNewTrader:

The fact is, any money I DON'T put into this trade is potential profitability that I'm leaving on the table.

I'm willing to bet the farm on this.

<b>NOW:</b>

Quote from BrandNewTrader:

. Of course, I didn't completely fck up and did NOT commit a significant portion of my capital.

 

[Bitstream]

u dont think u are wrong? what u need as a wake up call, go completely broke?

i havent done my research? what are u kiddin' me; i've been tellin' u for ages your trade was aweful and mkt was very likely to rise this comin' summer/autumn even tho auguts usually is a terrible month for stocks. dont talk about research when u fucked up like few did in this board. LMAOPIMP.

Quote from BrandNewTrader:



I don't think my views are wrong, it's just that my trading tactics were off. Your view of the market doesn't sound like you've done alot of research/reading regarding the intermediate-term outlook for the broader markets. You should look into it, you might be surprised.

Otherwise, stick to daytrading.

 

[frugi]

:eek:

 

[Bitstream]

Quote from Rearden Metal:

<b>THEN:</b>










<b>NOW:</b>

i can't see a very bright future for this kid if he doesn't change his attitude and above all...if he doesnt learn how to trade!

 

[Rearden Metal]

Quote from frugi:

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1226993>

OMG! :eek:

BNT, even if we do go into recession, the mkt won't necessarily drop all the way down to your strikes.

There are many character flaws a trader can get away with, and still become successful.
However, <b>stubbornness</b> isn't one of them.

 

[Rearden Metal]

Quote from riskarb:

Whoa, cool! Guess which episode is being shown on Comedy Central RIGHT NOW!

Seriously, turn it on...

 

[BCE]

Quote from BrandNewTrader:

I don't think my views are wrong, it's just that my trading tactics were off.

When you started your thread and put those views out I admit that it all sounded right to me. And the views of the guy you linked to. I had a very bearish view of the market too. HOWEVER the market doesn't pay you for being right. As you're saying, to make money in the market you have to trade the market effectively. I just wouldn't commit a large portion of my captial to any trade or trades without some sort of risk management. Never. To insist you're right and stick to this even when the market's telling you differently, is the way to get creamed and have your account wiped out. Period. To insist you're right is a type of arrrogance and the market is very happy to teach you a lesson. You have to wait to see how things play out. You have some idea of how things will unfold and some idea of what's up, but there are a lot of factors affecting the markets. All the reports lately have been very bullish and have driven this market higher. Who cares about "being right"? Just observe what is actually happening, not what you think should be happening because of blah, blah, blah. Just trade. If you cling to some version of things you or someone else has created even when the market is telling you differently will cause you to lose money. The market doesn't care what we think. I wait by the phone each morning for the market to call and ask me for my views, but it never does.

BTW I lost money last Tuesday for having a short bias even though crude was off $2 for the day which I forgot about as I had just gotten up here on the West Coast and wasn't fully focused yet. I hate getting up so early. I tried twice to short support for YM and ER2 in the first hour and it bounced against me both times. Then I snapped out of this and got at least some of my money back. Lately this market has turned from a sell the rally market to a buy the dip market. A lot of traders are late in seeing when this change happens and thus keep trying the former strategy and lose money.

 

[riskarb]

Quote from BrandNewTrader:

I didn't tell you what the strike and maturity combinations were on my puts. I also didn't tell you what days I made purchases, so you don't know what vol was priced into the premiums. Yes, on some of my positions i am down 50%, on others i am down btwn 10 and 15%. Overall, my put plays are down ~35%.

I will be the first to admit that I got into this trade way too early - i was a little too enthusiastic and yea, i saw dollar signs and didn't want to miss a move. Of course, I didn't completely fck up and did NOT commit a significant portion of my capital. I plan on holding the positions and may well add to them during this quarter if the current fake rally is joined by the rest of the big boys and we have a market breakout.

You're laughing at bill cara? That's very funny... So his options info is very basic - he's not an options guru. I looked at the options section for about 2 mins and never read it again - you're right it's useless. His site is valuable b/c it contains a breadth of info relevent to traders and investors, AND he shares the knowledge he's accumulated over his career and sheds light on institutional mindset and historical trends/practices, etc. I don't think you looked at the site very carefully. You might find the info useless for your purposes,

You're in SPX equivalent of 1050 strikes, down to 850? You're done. I know enough about option theory and curvature to know that the ONLY positive is the fact that your vols have increased from skew. Not terribly comforting when your options are trading at an 1/8. I know where those puts were trading when you made your 8/5 post. Any revisionist BS is simply that... bullshit after the death trade.

How do I measure an abysmal failure? COGNITIVE DISSONANCE. You're doomed to repeat this event. You actually added to this train wreck of a trade?

Bill Cara... Canada's capital markets? Oxymoronic? Here's some new math:

Sell stock short, buy call with strike price above market price (partial put)

My 17yo niece has a better grasp of synthetic positions. It's a synthetic put. Nothing partial about it. Word.

 

[riskarb]

Quote from Rearden Metal:

Whoa, cool! Guess which episode is being shown on Comedy Central RIGHT NOW!

Seriously, turn it on...

Damn, I wanted to tivo it. Was at the lake all day. JESUS CHRIST!

<a href="http://www.putfile.com/pic.php?img=3637363"><img src="http://img1.putfile.com/thumb/10/28200053199.jpg" alt="Click to enlarge"></a>

 

[piezoe]

This has been a very amusing interchange.