Will the Fed pause on Tuesday?

[BrandNewTrader]

Wow. I fall back from posting on ET for a while, come back for a glance and my credibility is under fire? From a well respected ET member no less!

You told me so? You haven't told me shit little buddy. My positions are not devestated and my risk is capped as I am long puts. I am not a fool sir.

No one pounded anyone like a gerbil - this time, i am not a deserved victim of your tough nerd talk. The puts that I bought on the SPY's and homebuilders were for March and June 2007. Unfortunately, being inexperienced I was too early and bought prematurely. My puts are down around -35% at this point. Fortunately, since buying the puts a few months ago I've been making progress trading commodities and equities after a true daytrading breakthrough (it's all about size and money management! msg me for details) and now have the capital TO ADD to my equity put positions, especially since the homebuilder index has continued to rebound in the face of record unsold inventories, slowing sales, and falling prices. prices may fall up to 25% nationwide. (Disagree? Start a thread on this Board.)

Point is, I've been busy learning how to daytrade through hard work and sacrifice instead of continuing to debate market and economic forecasts with "short-life span" traders who would rather assume what they don't know than recognize their weaknesses and attempt to learn more through discussion.

So what makes you think we are still not headed for an economic slowdown and recession? Has all this hard vs soft landing bullshit gotten to you? There is no soft landing. The media has been slowly backpedaling in its stance towards the recession ever since disappointing economic reports began to emerge. There is a bullish bias in the media and financial world (all funds, especially sell side entities. =).

Why are my puts a bad trade? What is wrong with my positions? Do you think the economy and market are going to continue to rise through 2007? Look at all the data, then look at the incredible spin and propaganda job they do on tv. Have you realized the similarities between a) the relationship fox news and the oreilly show share with their audience, and b) the relationship cnbc and other financial shows share with their viewers. All experienced market participants should know what I'm talking about. The markets are not efficient and the markets are not immune to, nor free of, manipulation.

I am ranting. Anyway. Now I see why traders never give away their edge... I'm done being unnecessarily polite on ET. Stop talking shit and start talking sense. The economy is going into recession next year, and all of the economic reports that have been released in the past few months have only confirmed my view. The current dow rally is by all signs a suckers rally and is being spun in order to attract the greater public and fuel irrational exuberance and creat a true bull market by lifting the spy's and qqqq's via retail interest. You don't think it's possible? The Dow is being manipulated as we speak! Look at the components and the weightings, the dow is a joke! it's a purely symbolic index - ask yourself why there is no big index money pegged to it! all the index money is with the true broader indices, not the dow!

Anyway. Checkout the links below. They were an important part of the methods that helped me improve my trading and speculation. Reading analysis and forecasts from a wide variety of sources is only smart investing. I don't know any other way to put it. If you're not making money and you don't at least check out the below links? You're fooling yourself, haha! Get another day job homie.

www.rgemonitor.com
www.financialsense.com
www.calculatedrisk.blogspot.com
www.safehaven.com
www.billcara.com

 

[hans37]

IMHO ,I think you are trying to predict the next asteroid strike without the benefit of a telescope.

 

[riskarb]

Quote from BrandNewTrader:

You told me so? You haven't told me shit little buddy. My positions are not devestated and my risk is capped as I am long puts. I am not a fool sir.

No one pounded anyone like a gerbil - this time, i am not a deserved victim of your tough nerd talk. The puts that I bought on the SPY's and homebuilders were for March and June 2007. Unfortunately, being inexperienced I was too early and bought prematurely. My puts are down around -35% at this point. Fortunately, since buying the puts a few months ago

No friggin' way your puts are down 35% for Mar and Jun of 07 with the spoos up 70 handles since your 8/5 post. You're looking at 50% losses at minimum.

Yeah, you'll need that true daytrading breakthrough to salvage the catastrophic put trade. I pray you didn't get the ticker on those FF binaries. Two rate hikes by year-end? TWO?

Bill Cara?! Completely clueless. His option page is comic relief. Thanks for the other addresses, but they haven't done sh*t for your net-worth, have they?

 

[JimmyJam]

Quote from riskarb:

No friggin' way your puts are down 35% for Mar and Jun of 07 with the spoos up 70 handles since your 8/5 post. You're looking at 50% losses at minimum.

Yeah, you'll need that true daytrading breakthrough to salvage the catastrophic put trade. I pray you didn't get the ticker on those FF binaries. Two rate hikes by year-end? TWO?

...

I always like to run the numbers and look at the charts, because they tell the true story ... and unfortunately your trade is shaping up as one of the worse publicly decleared trades for the year hear at ET.

I honestly hope you've been able to offset the goring you're taking from the bulls with developing your daytrading skills as you've mentioned BNT.

According to your previous posts you went virtually all-in on your SHORT PLAY in early August, right before the market ripped to the upside, and hasn't looked back yet.

The thing is, your over-confidence in the face of price action which is completely and totally the opposite of what you're doing tells me that somebody's been telling you a lot of the wrong things ... and you've been listening.

EGO never wins in trading.

Regards,

JJ

 

[drmarkan]

Quote from BrandNewTrader:

So far so good. I've made my first entry, plan on adding twice more. Once right before the Fed decision, hopefully they pause, the market ralies and I can make my final and largest entry when all of the puts are cheapest.

At that point it will be a waiting game. I'm long SPY puts expiring in 12/06, 03/07, 06/07, and 12/07. Strikes range from 105 down to 85...

Not interested in put spreads since I think SPY may fall as low as 65. Nothing to do after this but sit back and wait...

You remind me of another guy who was on here a while back. His name was studyandtrade. He made wild predictions as well based strictly on what he must have considered absolutes in the market. Read the link for his astute observations on the crumbling market due to the rise in gold prices:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=59444&perpage=6&pagenumber=3

We saw gold hit $750.00 during the year with a less than 10% pullback in the S&P at the same time. Then a subsequent rally to new highs in the S&P with a pullback in the price of gold. He would have you believe that the smart money was getting into gold for the long term because of an economic downfall to be experienced in the U.S. over 2006. Never happened. The smart money was in gold 2 years prior and took profits this year. The dumb money came in at the beginning of this year, had big profits, held while the smart money sold, and will be sitting unched possibly by the end of this year.

I'm not saying we will not see a move down in the markets, but I think you need to be a little more realistic about the move. Unless you're Barry Bonds, swinging for the fence everytime is going to result in more strike outs than homeruns.

 

[BrandNewTrader]

Quote from hans37:

IMHO ,I think you are trying to predict the next asteroid strike without the benefit of a telescope.

asteroids hit the earth once every 5 million years on average? Not sure, But I DO know that bull and bear markets run in cycles, and what goes up always comes down, and vice versa. So no, I am not trying to predict an asteroid impact without a telescope.

 

[BrandNewTrader]

Quote from riskarb:

No friggin' way your puts are down 35% for Mar and Jun of 07 with the spoos up 70 handles since your 8/5 post. You're looking at 50% losses at minimum.

Yeah, you'll need that true daytrading breakthrough to salvage the catastrophic put trade. I pray you didn't get the ticker on those FF binaries. Two rate hikes by year-end? TWO?

Bill Cara?! Completely clueless. His option page is comic relief. Thanks for the other addresses, but they haven't done sh*t for your net-worth, have they?

I didn't tell you what the strike and maturity combinations were on my puts. I also didn't tell you what days I made purchases, so you don't know what vol was priced into the premiums. Yes, on some of my positions i am down 50%, on others i am down btwn 10 and 15%. Overall, my put plays are down ~35%.

I will be the first to admit that I got into this trade way too early - i was a little too enthusiastic and yea, i saw dollar signs and didn't want to miss a move. Of course, I didn't completely fck up and did NOT commit a significant portion of my capital. I plan on holding the positions and may well add to them during this quarter if the current fake rally is joined by the rest of the big boys and we have a market breakout.

You're laughing at bill cara? That's very funny... So his options info is very basic - he's not an options guru. I looked at the options section for about 2 mins and never read it again - you're right it's useless. His site is valuable b/c it contains a breadth of info relevent to traders and investors, AND he shares the knowledge he's accumulated over his career and sheds light on institutional mindset and historical trends/practices, etc. I don't think you looked at the site very carefully. You might find the info useless for your purposes,

 

[Bitstream]

Quote from BrandNewTrader:

asteroids hit the earth once every 5 million years on average? Not sure, But I DO know that bull and bear markets run in cycles, and what goes up always comes down, and vice versa. So no, I am not trying to predict an asteroid impact without a telescope.

breakin' bad news for ya: we are not goin' into a recession. and we prolly dont even soft land...eco will keep growin' altough slowly and max we'll have a couple of qts of stale growth that will happen on second half 2007, when your martingaled puts purchase will be settlin' at 0.

there ain't no spin about what's happenin': fed stopped rasin' rates and will cut soon, and cuz of it smart power money has been pilin' in on every small retracement...mkt was in cold turkey since late '04 waitin' for the fed to stop, and now the massive relief is showin' in the new highs reached and taken out every day. dow is rallyin' cuz many of the componenets are solid and safe stocks that tend to outperform in a interest rates free environment, perfect target for hedge funds and the like..nothin' else to it.

enjoy

 

[BrandNewTrader]

Quote from drmarkan:

You remind me of another guy who was on here a while back. His name was studyandtrade. He made wild predictions as well based strictly on what he must have considered absolutes in the market. Read the link for his astute observations on the crumbling market due to the rise in gold prices:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=59444&perpage=6&pagenumber=3

We saw gold hit $750.00 during the year with a less than 10% pullback in the S&P at the same time. Then a subsequent rally to new highs in the S&P with a pullback in the price of gold. He would have you believe that the smart money was getting into gold for the long term because of an economic downfall to be experienced in the U.S. over 2006. Never happened. The smart money was in gold 2 years prior and took profits this year. The dumb money came in at the beginning of this year, had big profits, held while the smart money sold, and will be sitting unched possibly by the end of this year.

I'm not saying we will not see a move down in the markets, but I think you need to be a little more realistic about the move. Unless you're Barry Bonds, swinging for the fence everytime is going to result in more strike outs than homeruns.

point taken. luckily i am still solvent, still in this trade, and have learned the lesson and have moved on.

 

[BrandNewTrader]

Quote from Bitstream:

breakin' bad news for ya: we are not goin' into a recession. and we prolly dont even soft land...eco will keep growin' altough slowly and max we'll have a couple of qts of stale growth that will happen on second half 2007, when your martingaled puts purchase will be settlin' at 0.

there ain't no spin about what's happenin': fed stopped rasin' rates and will cut soon, and cuz of it smart power money has been pilin' in on every small retracement...mkt was in cold turkey since late '04 waitin' for the fed to stop, and now the massive relief is showin' in the new highs reached and taken out every day. dow is rallyin' cuz many of the componenets are solid and safe stocks that tend to outperform in a interest rates free environment, perfect target for hedge funds and the like..nothin' else to it.

enjoy

breakin bad news for ya: we are going into a recession. economic growth is going to slow to BELOW 2% annualized, housing alone will erase 1 to 1.5% GDP by itself due to the effects on consumer spending, residential investment, and housing-related jobs that have already begun to come off and will continue to come off over the next 12 months (straight from bernanke's mouth).

The Fed feels like it can cut rates b/c the slowing economy is supposed to bring down inflation. Thus, cutting rates will save the slowing economy and cushion the soft/feather landing. Part of the reason markets are rising is because they've PRICED IN these future rate cuts. Unfortunately for the market, it's not easy to erase systematic and persistent inflation, ESPECIALLY when the central bank is pumping M3 to record levels. They've been raising rates, but their open market operations have been pumping liquidity into the system.

I don't think my views are wrong, it's just that my trading tactics were off. Your view of the market doesn't sound like you've done alot of research/reading regarding the intermediate-term outlook for the broader markets. You should look into it, you might be surprised.

Otherwise, stick to daytrading.