Will Russia invade Ukraine

[GotherL]

With futs -400 I'm

a) glad I brought inverses Friday, I'm in 15k mostly UVXY SQQQ

b) slightly annoyed I didn't bet heavier

c) looking forward to pair daytrading UVXY vs SOXL

All aboard........

#gobears

Slightly ignored I sold my XOM calls.

Brent futures up over 3%.

Took some VXX 25c 2/25th ones.

Not making any assumptions yet. Frequently, witnessed the ES turn R/G overnight.

But it currently looks like a texbook bear flag or rising wedge rn. Esp on the slow buildup.

 

[SunTrader]

Nymex crude QM was up as high as $94.05 but now $92.325

Don't forget possible Iran deal soon.

 

[kashirin]

In the case of an invasion, serious sanctions are coming they'll squeeze the Russian economy until Putin yells uncle. We can only hope there isn't a ton a death involved in the mean time. Putin better watch his back a lot of people will want him dead.

there are no sanctions which will harm Russia more than West itself
Russia has full backing of China
Do west really want to mess with China and Russia in the same time?

There are some minor players like Venezuela,Kazakhstan and Iran, if those put simultanious embargo with Russian on oil and NG for west it's going to be stone age in Europe in a week and in USA in a month.

 

[Nine_Ender]

there are no sanctions which will harm Russia more than West itself
Russia has full backing of China
Do west really want to mess with China and Russia in the same time?

There are some minor players like Venezuela,Kazakhstan and Iran, if those put simultanious embargo with Russian on oil and NG for west it's going to be stone age in Europe in a week and in USA in a month.

Sanctions have already started, and more to come as the Security Council meets tonight. They aren't getting together to eat crumpets and discuss the Olympics.

 

[terr]

Sanctions have already started, and more to come as the Security Council meets tonight. They aren't getting together to eat crumpets and discuss the Olympics.

These "sanctions"?

"White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Biden would sign an executive order that will “prohibit new investment, trade, and financing by U.S. persons to, from, or in the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic regions of Ukraine.”

These sanctions affect exactly 0 people. Effectively no sanctions at all.

 

[kashirin]

Sanctions have already started, and more to come as the Security Council meets tonight. They aren't getting together to eat crumpets and discuss the Olympics.

you don't even remotely understand how the world works
2 permanent members of the security council China and Russia can block any stupidity from the USA and UK
So the security council will be nothing but a talk

So sanction will come from USA, EU and UK
If any serious stupidity from that side 2 things will happen - counter sanctions and possible full scale Ukraine invasion with parting country to several parts

Basically what happened today - everybody wanted that as the end result. So sanction will be just a token.
Now to end that story US must announce NATO will never expand and everybody will be happy and can return to BLM and LGBTHQER+ problems

 

[gkishot]

In simple terms the sole existance of current Ukraine is to be "anti Russia'
and it's used by West to create a center of permanent instability and weaken Russian as much as possible

So it's probably reached the point that Russia won't tolerate it no matter of consequences and it's better for the USA to back off and allow Russia friednly Ukraine unless they want to risk nuclear war

anti Russia? In what way does Russia want Ukraine to be pro-Russia? Does czar Putin want to invade any country it feels "anti-Russia"?

 

[kashirin]

anti Russia? In what way does Russia want Ukraine to be pro-Russia? Does czar Putin want to invade any country it feels "anti-Russia"?

Basically yes, like US invades any country around the globe it considers security threat

Imagine Mexico get weapon and money from Russia to get back Texas. Or better make sure US becomes 50 different independent states

 

[Covertibility]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1495909427152846849

 

[mervyn]

Sanctions have already started, and more to come as the Security Council meets tonight. They aren't getting together to eat crumpets and discuss the Olympics.

The sanctions I heard in the car radio is to prohibit any US person and entity to invest in those two regions. I don’t know about you, unless you are a Ukraine/Russian-American, I don’t think I ever go there. Russian has veto in security council, China will back them so it is a meeting about nothing.