Why the S&P 500 will be much higher in 5 years?

[oldtime]

Quote from tradingjournals:

Should you not replace IS by WAS?

good point

most of what they call an "Edge" is just historians betting that what worked will continue to work

Scientists don't like visionary predictors

because they don't know how to measure it

but like I say, it is just in my conservative account, and we are very old fashioned over there

 

[1a2b3cppp]

Are you talking about this stuff?

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/03/sp-cycles-1928/

Here's an image from that post:

 

[oldtime]

yep, that's the one

 

[1a2b3cppp]

I hadn't heard of it so I Googled "gold adjusted s&p" and found that.

I didn't really read the whole article. Is it legit or is it just crazy stuff?

 

[oldtime]

Quote from 1a2b3cppp:

I hadn't heard of it so I Googled "gold adjusted s&p" and found that.

I didn't really read the whole article. Is it legit or is it just crazy stuff?

no, Rickards is a very smart man

The CIA hired him to play a currency war against Harvard

He messed the whole deal up by introducing gold

But I wouldn't go so far as to classify him as a goldbug

And you know, there is no sense trying to reason with them

Just something to think about

 

[Duarte]

Quote from querry:

What is significant about this "pattern of 1994"?

What does it mean to you?

About the pattern in the Price ROC indicator what I am saying is that:
After the triple bottom pattern in 1994, the S&P 500 rose during 5 years.
In 2011/2012 the indicator did the same pattern that was done in 1994.
So, this suggests that the S&P 500 may rise in the long term.

 

[J.Joseph]

Quote from querry:

What is significant about this "pattern of 1994"?

What does it mean to you?

I don't know what it means to OP, but to me it means a throw under after diminishing swings. Means more bull movement.
As of now, however, (since 2009) the price is still in the diminishing swings as he has marked. So the bull movement will be contingent upon a break-out on the bear's side.

 

[abattia]

Quote from Duarte:
... I'll try to explain why the markets will be much higher in 5 years...

What if US deficit issue becomes a European debt crisis par excellence during that time frame? Could also happen ...
http://www.economist.com/printedition/covers/2013-01-03/ap-e-eu-la-me-na-uk
US budget deficit continues to grow -> Speculative outflows from US$ debt -> Higher US interest rates -> US Economy weakens -> budget deficit grows worse -> equity markets fall -> bigger speculative outflows from US$ -> interest rates even higher -> US economy weaker still -> consumption collapses and can't be offset by increased exports from weaker US$ -> equity markets will be going down, not up ...

 

[Duarte]

After a long term analysis made, I will adopt a passive strategy of buy and hold.
For this strategy, I will now use 10 000 dollars and, maybe in one or two years' time,
I will use more 10 000 dollars.

I'll do this for each of the following risk profiles /ETFs:

Higher Risk / UPRO
Medium-higher Risk /SSO
Medium Risk / SPY

 

[Duarte]