I would not be surprised if a retreat/selloff develops soon.
Are there major issues that would serve to explain/trigger it?
Are there major issues that would serve to explain/trigger it?
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Why the S&P 500 will be much higher in 5 years?
- Thread starter Duarte
- Start date
without reading this whole thing i can explain why SP will be higher regardless..cause everything is tied up to it. specially pension plans and whole entire "finance and investing" industry is based on assumption of 7%-8% avg. return. and they ALL(WS,DC) will do everything to keep the numbers up.cause if you f** with general public-they will f** up you up..and since we have baby boomers on their way out and they are the majority in investing-you certainly don't want mess them up. and this is why it will be much higher in next 5 years..unless there is some sort of epic s** happens..like super volcano or something that big..KISS.
Can the Fed continue indefinitely to pursue a given course of action regardless of other global factors that might work against it?Quote from Duarte:
The fundamental issue that has led the global markets up is the activity of the Fed.
Will the market always view the Fed's action as more important/significant than other globals factors/market forces that might work in an opposite direction?
Will the future always be like the past?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1104361-the-market-s-grand-illusion?source=yahoo
Date......................... Event....................................Market Gain
June 6 2012................ECB meeting...................................1.23%
July 25-26..................Draghi's "whatever it takes"...............3.64%
September 6...............Draghi's "unlimited" bond threat..........2.11%
September 13-14.........FOMC meeting and QE-infinity............2.03%
December 31st............Senate passes cliff extension.............1.69%
that's all the gains.
Date......................... Event....................................Market Gain
June 6 2012................ECB meeting...................................1.23%
July 25-26..................Draghi's "whatever it takes"...............3.64%
September 6...............Draghi's "unlimited" bond threat..........2.11%
September 13-14.........FOMC meeting and QE-infinity............2.03%
December 31st............Senate passes cliff extension.............1.69%
that's all the gains.
Quote from abattia:
Can the Fed continue indefinitely to pursue a given course of action regardless of other global factors that might work against it?
Will the market always view the Fed's action as more important/significant than other globals factors/market forces that might work in an opposite direction?
Will the future always be like the past?
"the market can act irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent."
Quote from Duarte:
After a long term analysis made, I will adopt a passive strategy of buy and hold.
For this strategy, I will now use 10 000 dollars and, maybe in one or two years' time,
I will use more 10 000 dollars.
I'll do this for each of the following risk profiles /ETFs:
Higher Risk / UPRO
Medium-higher Risk /SSO
Medium Risk / SPY
About the risk:
The risk varies according to the leverage of the ETF used.
SPY is not leveraged. Is designed to have the gain or loss as the S&P 500.
SSO is 2x leveraged. Is designed to have twice the gain or loss as the S&P 500 index.
UPRO is 3x leveraged. Is designed to have thrice the gain or loss as the S&P 500 index
And recognizing a given market behaviour as irrational is not good reason to trade against the market; at best, it's just a good reason to be more cautious and to recognize that the next time might be different ...Quote from Duarte:
I also agree. This helps explain why it is so difficult to explain market movements.