Why the S&P 500 will be much higher in 5 years?

[Duarte]

Quote from abattia:

And recognizing a given market behaviour as irrational is not good reason to trade against the market; at best, it's just a good reason to be more cautious and to recognize that the next time might be different ...

I also agree with that.
I did my analysis, and I acted accordingly.

I don´t think that we should put all the money in a buy and hold strategy, but a small percentage of the money, in the current situation, I think it is a good idea.

 

[trickshot]

Quote from Bob111:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1104361-the-market-s-grand-illusion?source=yahoo

Date......................... Event....................................Market Gain

June 6 2012................ECB meeting...................................1.23%

July 25-26..................Draghi's "whatever it takes"...............3.64%

September 6...............Draghi's "unlimited" bond threat..........2.11%

September 13-14.........FOMC meeting and QE-infinity............2.03%

December 31st............Senate passes cliff extension.............1.69%


that's all the gains.

The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Hedge Fund Index was up 1.1% last year.

Ouch. And people wonder why the market is so dead these days...

 

[Duarte]

My guess is that the S&P 500 will rise to its resistance line, close to the level of 1575.

Chart - S & P500 index monthly candlestick chart between May 1999 and March 2013.

 

[Duarte]

Quote from Duarte:

After a long term analysis made, I will adopt a passive strategy of buy and hold.
For this strategy, I will now use 10 000 dollars and, maybe in one or two years' time,
I will use more 10 000 dollars.

I'll do this for each of the following risk profiles /ETFs:

Higher Risk / UPRO
Medium-higher Risk /SSO
Medium Risk / SPY

In the first months of this year, the evolution of “buy and hold” portfolios was positive.

 

[brokerboy]

the S&P can go up 200 points or it can go down 600 points. its when the markets decide to look at the real truth it will drop. i want to know who would take ben's job at the fed. if you bring a drop of reality to the stock markets they will drop 40%.

Quote from abattia:

What if US deficit issue becomes a European debt crisis par excellence during that time frame? Could also happen ...
http://www.economist.com/printedition/covers/2013-01-03/ap-e-eu-la-me-na-uk
US budget deficit continues to grow -> Speculative outflows from US$ debt -> Higher US interest rates -> US Economy weakens -> budget deficit grows worse -> equity markets fall -> bigger speculative outflows from US$ -> interest rates even higher -> US economy weaker still -> consumption collapses and can't be offset by increased exports from weaker US$ -> equity markets will be going down, not up ...

 

[EngineerLarry]

The question of the day is why did you not post this months ago say during the election time? Its curious how everyone comes out to pound the desks to go long after months of bullish action but never before.

 

[oldtime]

Quote from brokerboy:

the S&P can go up 200 points or it can go down 600 points. its when the markets decide to look at the real truth it will drop. i want to know who would take ben's job at the fed. if you bring a drop of reality to the stock markets they will drop 40%.

doesn't he run a company that takes in a billion dollars a day and can borrow a trillion no questions asked? I'd take his job if they paid me a percentage

 

[Fractals 'R Us]

Quote from zdreg:

"the market can act irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent."

I was married to an INFJ for decades... I fully get that quote too

 

[oldtime]

Quote from Fractals 'R Us:

I was married to an INFJ for decades... I fully get that quote too

it was a quote by Keynes after he went broke

funny isn't it how many of us still revere him as a brilliant economist

In his old age he was repulsed by those who took his teachings as economic religious dogma

I think his real thing was, "You gotta change with the times."

One time the conservatives were arguing how in the long run his plan was not sustainable

His reply was, "Well, in the long run we will all be dead."

 

[R. Raskolnikov]

I'm pretty sure you got it wrong. His reply "In the long run we will all be dead" was in response to Hayek's notion that markets eventually work themselves out and there is no need to intervene to take action to stimulate demand, regardless of how long that takes.

Keynes response meant that it's better to do SOMETHING now to get the economy moving (if it's not happening organically) rather than wait for it to occur naturally when, by that time, we may all be dead

Quote from oldtime:



One time the conservatives were arguing how in the long run his plan was not sustainable

His reply was, "Well, in the long run we will all be dead."