Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Ed48 · Sep 4, 2015

Thanks for dropping in RN. I've found your posts very thought provoking, which is why I highlighted them in the PDF I provided a link to earlier.

Was this the relation you were hinting at in the post below?

90% lose - BLASH/SHABL
10% win - BHASH/SLABL

Redneck said:
...
90% lose, 10% win - consistently

I wonder if these are related in any way - Yes Sir - I just wonder

Redneck

Redneck · Sep 4, 2015

Hey ED48

90% lose - BLASH/SHABL
10% win - BHASH/SLABL

This has to do with the mkt's environment - and trading it accordingly

==========================

90% lose, 10% win - consistently

This has to do with who actually puts in the work to become successful

=====================

Outside looking in - trading comes off as one easy gig - everyone thinks they can

Step in the nut house - only those who come to terms with their self end up making it

Coming to terms takes work

RN

Redneck · Sep 4, 2015

Vindago said:
If only I could get myself to do what needs to be done (on a regular basis) I would be a rich man.

Then figure out why you can't - and change it

Vindago said:
I am just beginning to learn how to walk it...

As one of my esteemed colleges posted not too long ago (paraphrasing)

Life is a series of journey's - sometimes singularly..., sometime in multiples

Enjoy each - for at the end - that is all there is

Vindago said:
Thanks RN, as always I really enjoy your posts!

You're Very Welcome Sir

RN

The Obvious · Sep 5, 2015

Ed48 said:
I bet no two traders trade in the same way but is there something that all the unprofitable ones have in common? Ditto the profitable ones.

Read ScoobyStoo's posts, and the OP's replies, in your PDF.

I will give you another clue. Those in the know gave much more away in their early posts when they weren't so cagey.

J_Smith · Sep 5, 2015

The Obvious said:
Read ScoobyStoo's posts, and the OP's replies, in your PDF.

I will give you another clue. Those in the know gave much more away in their early posts when they weren't so cagey.

You could be right there

The biggest problem for most, I think, is the fear of losing money. There is an enormous difference watching prices live on a screen, and watching your P&L change - there should not be, but there is, for all but a few.

A four year old child can make money trading, as all you have to do is draw some straight lines on a chart and tell him to buy if the price goes above the top line, and sell if the price goes below the bottom line.

But, how do you make sure the child will do what he is told.

Simple, you tell him that if the price comes back over the line, and he doesn't get out fast, then he will have no money for sweets in the shop

Simplified a small bit, but not much, but he will learn quickly that he can get back in even after getting out, so he can still buy some sweets!

J_S

Ed48 · Sep 9, 2015

I don't know where he gets his figures from, but this author claims the 90% majority of (FOREX) traders who lose are doing BLASH/SHABL. The 10% elite do BHASH/SLABL.

http://www.streetdirectory.com/trav..._trading_strategy___the_secret_of_timing.html

Maybe he's just another so-called expert who shouldn't be listened to.

Vindago · Sep 9, 2015

Hi ED, I think the point is in the way price move, if you can intercept a measured move once it has started you are likely to see the price to keep moving that direction for some time. in a way it is safer to BHASH since the move has already started while to BLASH you need to bet that the price will turn around and start moving the opposite way.

The OPs in the Obvious thread often referenced buying a bit when price stops betting that it woud turn around and then once the move was confirmed buy more...

I guess the problem now is how do you figure out if price has started a measured move or instead is a fake move...

traderflowbee5 · Sep 10, 2015

nysestocks are you still around ? pm please

Ed48 · Sep 10, 2015

Vindago said:
I guess the problem now is how do you figure out if price has started a measured move or instead is a fake move...

Hi VO,

There's an old saying "price is never too high to buy and never too low to sell"

Of course, the more extended the move already the more uncomfortable it will feel to open a BHASH or SLABL trade. That's why the majority of traders don't do it.

The price may immediately reverse or the move may continue for a bit longer or even quite a lot longer. There's no way of knowing, and that's the nature of gambling.

Ed

J_Smith · Sep 10, 2015

Ed48 said:
Hi VO,

There's an old saying "price is never too high to buy and never too low to sell"

Of course, the more extended the move already the more uncomfortable it will feel to open a BHASH or SLABL trade. That's why the majority of traders don't do it.

The price may immediately reverse or the move may continue for a bit longer or even quite a lot longer. There's no way of knowing, and that's the nature of gambling.

Ed

E48, I believe that is true to an extent, but what is also true is "some times are better to buy than others, and some times are better to sell than others" - not it is "sometimes" better, as there is a big difference!

So, we now have another question to ponder on besides buying or selling high or low, and that is "when" do I buy, or "when" do I sell?

Time = Money for a valid reason!

Why are Swiss timepieces known for their accuracy?

J_S