Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

[Vindago]

VO, there is no suck thing as a fake move, as all moves are valid!

What is a measured move, and maybe a bit more important, why do measured moves appear, as I am certain it is not because children are drawing lines on their parents new Ultra High Definition curved screen

It would appear that yes, some times are better to sell at the top, and buy at the bottom, and other times are better to buy at the top, and sell at the bottom!

What can be this big difference, for we can tell when price is indeed at the top or the bottom by just asking the child, but we are not going to ask the child if we should buy or sell, well, I hope not anyway

J_S

JS for fake move I ment when you have a quick brief move in one direction that reverse for a longer move, this is a trap move.

buy high and sell low is never a good choice IMO...

measured moves serves the porpous of moving between levels...

 

[Ed48]

JS for fake move I ment when you have a quick brief move in one direction that reverse for a longer move, this is a trap move.

BHASH/SLABL is about having the balls to get on a move that is already well established. To the majority of traders it will probably look extended, and in overbought/oversold territory.

 

[J_Smith]

JS for fake move I ment when you have a quick brief move in one direction that reverse for a longer move, this is a trap move.

buy high and sell low is never a good choice IMO...

measured moves serves the porpous of moving between levels...

Well VO, at the moment the buy lowers are correct here, but look at that gaping hole to the left - monday could bring a completely different scenario, and those who got in low might get out as quickly as they got in, and the sell lowers could appear - they might even be one and the same?

Either way, we should be ready with our scope attached, and not have our double barreled shotgun fully loaded to blast everything in sight!

J_S

 

[Vindago]

Well VO, at the moment the buy lowers are correct here, but look at that gaping hole to the left - monday could bring a completely different scenario, and those who got in low might get out as quickly as they got in, and the sell lowers could appear - they might even be one and the same?

Either way, we should be ready with our scope attached, and not have our double barreled shotgun fully loaded to blast everything in sight!

J_S

View attachment 157021

Hmm it looks like AAPL is going down soon...

 

[J_Smith]

Hmm it looks like AAPL is going down soon...

Who cares VO, all we want it to do is move tomorrow

Seriously, in order to risk some money on AAPL for the medium to long term, then a more detailed analysis of the charts to try and identify where the big money is would be required.

There is a good deal of work in this, but the payoff can be well worth it.

Contrary to what most think and say, it is possible to get a fairly good picture of what the big money is thinking about AAPL direction, and you can then place your trades accordingly, but as with any trading, no gain without risk, so in order to make the "larger" profit on such a trade, it will be required to take on the "larger" risk at first and manage trade as required.

To reword your last post.

Scenario 1
If AAPL goes above 117.25 and closes above this value, then the odds of it going up some more are good and a long trade might have sufficient low risk.

Scenario 2
If AAPL goes below 107.15 and closes below this value, then the odds of it going down some more are good and a short trade might have sufficient low risk.

Scenario 3
As long as AAPL stays within this $10 range then I might be best to wait and see happens by month end - I can always daytrade it in the meantime for smaller risk trades.

J_S

 

[J_Smith]

VO, what is your opinion now, just outa curiosity

J_S

 

[FXTraderSK]

buy high and sell low is never a good choice IMO...

You know, it's funny because just today on this forum I read that a lot of traders get killed because they buy when price is falling because "it has to go back," and it never turns back and vice versa for selling (behavioral finance calls this concept anchoring). And then there's the other side of the spectrum where they say always buy low and sell high, never the opposite or you will get killed. Well, which one is it??

It really depends on the context of what is moving the market. If there is a strong reason or theme for the book to be heavily weighted towards one side, why would you go against the flow? Breakout traders can easily make money in this sort of environment and price may not look back at all, leaving the ones looking for a wholesale pullback and confirmation from the level price initially took off from left in the dust. (Think late last year and early this year when the Fed tightening speculation created a nice trend that just didn't look back)

On the other hand, if the market is uncertain about where the next move will be as seen in the current market environment, breakout traders would give it all back while those buying low and selling high could be making a nice cut.

IMO, a great trader should be able to understand and adapt to the current market environment. Understanding of market structure is crucial and can allow one to build edges around any conditions.

 

[yassinos]

VO, what is your opinion now, just outa curiosity

J_S

View attachment 157063

I would say it stayed in range of $1.15 for most of the day

 

[J_Smith]

You know, it's funny because just today on this forum I read that a lot of traders get killed because they buy when price is falling because "it has to go back," and it never turns back and vice versa for selling (behavioral finance calls this concept anchoring). And then there's the other side of the spectrum where they say always buy low and sell high, never the opposite or you will get killed. Well, which one is it??

It really depends on the context of what is moving the market. If there is a strong reason or theme for the book to be heavily weighted towards one side, why would you go against the flow? Breakout traders can easily make money in this sort of environment and price may not look back at all, leaving the ones looking for a wholesale pullback and confirmation from the level price initially took off from left in the dust. (Think late last year and early this year when the Fed tightening speculation created a nice trend that just didn't look back)

On the other hand, if the market is uncertain about where the next move will be as seen in the current market environment, breakout traders would give it all back while those buying low and selling high could be making a nice cut.

IMO, a great trader should be able to understand and adapt to the current market environment. Understanding of market structure is crucial and can allow one to build edges around any conditions.

Understanding structure - yes, very important, but also as important for daytrading are a few other key things that can put the odds in your favor.

J_S

 

[FXTraderSK]

Understanding structure - yes, very important, but also as important for daytrading are a few other key things that can put the odds in your favor.

J_S

Many things. And having to detail all those things would involve writing much more than a book.