Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Vindago said:
Hi ED, I think the point is in the way price move, if you can intercept a measured move once it has started you are likely to see the price to keep moving that direction for some time. in a way it is safer to BHASH since the move has already started while to BLASH you need to bet that the price will turn around and start moving the opposite way.

The OPs in the Obvious thread often referenced buying a bit when price stops betting that it woud turn around and then once the move was confirmed buy more...

I guess the problem now is how do you figure out if price has started a measured move or instead is a fake move...
More...

VO, there is no suck thing as a fake move, as all moves are valid!

What is a measured move, and maybe a bit more important, why do measured moves appear, as I am certain it is not because children are drawing lines on their parents new Ultra High Definition curved screen :)

It would appear that yes, some times are better to sell at the top, and buy at the bottom, and other times are better to buy at the top, and sell at the bottom!

What can be this big difference, for we can tell when price is indeed at the top or the bottom by just asking the child, but we are not going to ask the child if we should buy or sell, well, I hope not anyway :)

J_S
 
VO, is this an unusual measured move! - have you seen this one in any of the textbooks or any mentor's detailed plan?

What does it tell us about measured moves?

J_S

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Hi ED, JS,

we know of some times of the day that are particularely important, the Open and what happen in the first few mins and the "Lunch brake" where often price don't move much.

then, often there is a move between 10 and 11 and another between 1 and 3 pm. With screen time and observation we can learn to recocgnize when the move is on its way and use this knowledge to set our bets.

so the Time = Money equation tells me that as we have important price levels we have important times. Learn to exploit these (in combination with each other) and money will come...
 
VO, I agree with you about important times of day, but what about these measured moves, some traders swear by them and say they are the holy grail.

I remember a few years ago, on some site, someone PM'd me and told me to stay quiet about measured moves as they are too valuable - was he right?

Are they keeping secrets from others so that they have "the edge"?

What is the real truth?

J_S

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BTW, it is not the numbers that are important, it is what happened at the numbers, and the relationship of the numbers to what happened!

J_S
 
For me, BHASH/SLABL feels like the right way to go. Follow the big money. I won't be day trading but trading on a bit longer time frame.

I think part of the secret is to choose a method and stick with it. Rinse and repeat. Practice makes perfect.

It's just gambling after all. You win some, you lose some.

To counter-act my psychological weaknesses, I will be betting very, very, very small. This way I'm less likely to go astray and, even if I do screw up from time to time, it won't break the bank and I can stay in the game for long enough to give myself a fighting chance of succeeding.
 
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