Why I remain BEARish despite fed pump April 9th

KCalhoun

KCalhoun

Short term this past couple of weeks I've been on the wrong side of things trying to short-term bottomfish inverses like SQQQ SDOW TVIX etc, and have given back some of the profits I made earlier this year.

Markets may well trade higher for up to a week or two because of the surprise fed pump yesterday. But it's a house of cards printing money.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/09/jpm...cent-and-unemployment-reaching-20percent.html

I'm a price action trader, so I trade both pivots off lows like I did in casino and oil/gold stocks, as well as breakouts. Pivots haven't worked in inverses recently, but they will in time. Question is not if, but when.

I am still bearish big-picture, but I daytrade both long and short bias.

The fed propping up markets can only last for a limited time. Yesterday's unemployment numbers and all the other bad news would've tanked the markets if not for the fed pump.

Yesterday I was down net just $188, I sold most of my small inverse positions SDOW SQQQ etc premkt near breakeven and oils APA OXY for a profit.

I've been wrong recently re bearish swing trading bias. Fortunately it hasn't cost me much (2-3k?), because I do small size 10-30 share initial trades and only scale in size once they're in the money.

The only thing propping up the market is artificial fed intervention, which won't last. Things like bad earnings, global pandemic, and record unemployment will rightfully crush the market, it's just a matter of time..

But if the market keeps going up I'll buy SPXL TQQQ SVXY, if it goes down I'll buy SPXS SQQQ TVIX.... though I fully expect an epic crash soon I'm not a stubborn bear.

The market's price action is all that matters, not opinions. Although I fckd up a bit lately I'm still profitable on the year, gotta love these markets
 
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greeneveryday said:
Market doesn't care or know who you are... Price action is all that matters. For now... Very bullish. Sorry but you lost and and will lose again. Every dumb analysts, chartists keep saying we are not bottomed and will test low... And market f them right in the ass.
More...

Overall I'm still winning this year (^_^)

Recent wins long APA OXY MGM etc
Recent stops SQQQ TVIX SOXS etc

Congrats bulls on recent wins; I'm still long a few small size positions, trailing tight stops here.

Price action is all that matters, that's why I trade small size initially esp countertrend, then scale. Paid off for my casino and oil/gold trades, not for inverses.

Of course when market selloff occurs again, very likely soon, the bulls disappear til the next bounce
 
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KCalhoun said:
Short term this past couple of weeks I've been on the wrong side of things trying to short-term bottomfish inverses like SQQQ SDOW TVIX etc, and have given back some of the profits I made earlier this year.

Markets may well trade higher for up to a week or two because of the surprise fed pump yesterday. But it's a house of cards printing money.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/09/jpm...cent-and-unemployment-reaching-20percent.html

I'm a price action trader, so I trade both pivots off lows like I did in casino and oil/gold stocks, as well as breakouts. Pivots haven't worked in inverses recently, but they will in time. Question is not if, but when.

I am still bearish big-picture, but I daytrade both long and short bias.

The fed propping up markets can only last for a limited time. Yesterday's unemployment numbers and all the other bad news would've tanked the markets if not for the fed pump.

Yesterday I was down net just $188, I sold most of my small inverse positions SDOW SQQQ etc premkt near breakeven and oils APA OXY for a profit.

I've been wrong recently re bearish swing trading bias. Fortunately it hasn't cost me much (2-3k?), because I do small size 10-30 share initial trades and only scale in size once they're in the money.

The only thing propping up the market is artificial fed intervention, which won't last. Things like bad earnings, global pandemic, and record unemployment will rightfully crush the market, it's just a matter of time..

But if the market keeps going up I'll buy SPXL TQQQ SVXY, if it goes down I'll buy SPXS SQQQ TVIX.... though I fully expect an epic crash soon I'm not a stubborn bear.

The market's price action is all that matters, not opinions. Although I fckd up a bit lately I'm still profitable on the year, gotta love these markets
More...

I also expected and still expect more downside and was sitting on the sidelines in cash.

But I can’t ignore the current trend. I’m now in long until trend tells me different.
 
With this market volatility and uncertainty it's important to trade shorter round trips.

Getting lulled into complacency is risky, remember how January felt right before the crash....

I'll hedge and trade both sides initially, then scale into whichever wins, I'm not committed either way, I just trade with price action, small size, tight stops
 
greeneveryday said:
Market doesn't care or know who you are... Price action is all that matters. For now... Very bullish. Sorry but you lost and and will lose again. Every dumb analysts, chartists keep saying we are not bottomed and will test low... And market f them right in the ass.
More...

Very bullish (not even) 100 pts away from the top ?
 
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KCalhoun said:
Overall I'm still winning this year (^_^)

Recent wins long APA OXY MGM etc
Recent stops SQQQ TVIX SOXS etc

Congrats bulls on recent wins; I'm still long a few small size positions, trailing tight stops here.

Price action is all that matters, that's why I trade small size initially esp countertrend, then scale. Paid off for my casino and oil/gold trades, not for inverses.

Of course when market selloff occurs again, very likely soon, the bulls disappear til the next bounce
More...

My calls recently have been spot on it's been a great few weeks. I'm not overly bullish just an opportunist. My calls right now are US equities look topped out, gold miners are tremendous, depressed Canadian energy are decent gambles, and I foresee some dangerous downside potential for broader markets in May during earnings season if not earlier.

I think both the TSX and SPX have already put in a floor for the year. Like any forecasts, they can be wrong, I simply use my ideas to set a framework on whatever decisions I make. I held on far too long in the correction but eventually got out and everything's been extremely well timed since. I don't think the levels of panic and grandstanding some bears get into on this site helps them make rational decisions and maximize their profit potential even during large corrections.
 
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KCalhoun said:
Overall I'm still winning this year (^_^)
More...

What's your long-term track record (say 20 years)? Is it documented anywhere? I ask because you make your living as a trading educator...so that's a completely reasonable expectation. How did you do in 2019? The bears on here were all about shorting after the 20% drop in late 2018 and went into 2019 expecting a bigger crash. Almost all the disappeared by January 2019. It was VERY similar to the way this place sounded in late March of this year.
 
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