Why I remain BEARish despite fed pump April 9th

MKTrader said:
What's your long-term track record (say 20 years)? Is it documented anywhere? I ask because you make your living as a trading educator...so that's a completely reasonable expectation. How did you do in 2019? The bears on here were all about shorting after the 20% drop in late 2018 and went into 2019 expecting a bigger crash. Almost all the disappeared by January 2019. It was VERY similar to the way this place sounded in late March of this year.
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Dude you keep trolling me, please stfu. I'm a UCLA grad, award-winning TASC #1 Readers choice rated author and Moneyshow speaker.

For the umpteenth time I make no performance nor profitability claims of any kind.

Ive got thousands of followers and customers over the years because I'm great at teaching my lessons learned.
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KCalhoun said:
Short term this past couple of weeks I've been on the wrong side of things trying to short-term bottomfish inverses like SQQQ SDOW TVIX etc, and have given back some of the profits I made earlier this year.

Markets may well trade higher for up to a week or two because of the surprise fed pump yesterday. But it's a house of cards printing money.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/09/jpm...cent-and-unemployment-reaching-20percent.html

I'm a price action trader, so I trade both pivots off lows like I did in casino and oil/gold stocks, as well as breakouts. Pivots haven't worked in inverses recently, but they will in time. Question is not if, but when.

I am still bearish big-picture, but I daytrade both long and short bias.

The fed propping up markets can only last for a limited time. Yesterday's unemployment numbers and all the other bad news would've tanked the markets if not for the fed pump.

Yesterday I was down net just $188, I sold most of my small inverse positions SDOW SQQQ etc premkt near breakeven and oils APA OXY for a profit.

I've been wrong recently re bearish swing trading bias. Fortunately it hasn't cost me much (2-3k?), because I do small size 10-30 share initial trades and only scale in size once they're in the money.

The only thing propping up the market is artificial fed intervention, which won't last. Things like bad earnings, global pandemic, and record unemployment will rightfully crush the market, it's just a matter of time..

But if the market keeps going up I'll buy SPXL TQQQ SVXY, if it goes down I'll buy SPXS SQQQ TVIX.... though I fully expect an epic crash soon I'm not a stubborn bear.

The market's price action is all that matters, not opinions. Although I fckd up a bit lately I'm still profitable on the year, gotta love these markets
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You doing good to me KCalhoun,

You mangaing your risk and money management and you still in the game.

I think last week a few friends ask me the classical question "is now a good time to buy stocks with market crash"

I cleared my mind of all the news bullshit, went to the daily chart of SP500 and sent them this below.

Seems simple enough of to me.

It is best to do what the chart says do , and trust the probabilities.

This is why we use stop loss to protect our risk.



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Uptrend just based on D1 12sma the last 11 days, thinking YM 27,000 by thursday next week, then down again, when everyone switches sides LOL

How long before margin call murders you out ??

Why did you think, 30K nearly to 18K in 21days, wouldn't reverse and would keep going ??

Market is never that easy, it'll always do the opposite of what most retail think, just to kill them and take there money, learn this.
 
MKTrader said:
What's your long-term track record (say 20 years)? Is it documented anywhere? I ask because you make your living as a trading educator...so that's a completely reasonable expectation. How did you do in 2019? The bears on here were all about shorting after the 20% drop in late 2018 and went into 2019 expecting a bigger crash. Almost all the disappeared by January 2019. It was VERY similar to the way this place sounded in late March of this year.
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MKTrader,

Leave that man alone. His post was not to sale anyone anything.

If you interested in what he selling, be professional and private message him your questions.

His post was his opinion on the current state of the market, not about selling anything.

Stop playing around.
 
Turveyd said:
Uptrend just based on D1 12sma the last 11 days, thinking YM 27,000 by thursday next week, then down again, when everyone switches sides LOL

How long before margin call murders you out ??

Why did you think, 30K nearly to 18K in 21days, wouldn't reverse and would keep going ??

Market is never that easy, it'll always do the opposite of what most retail think, just to kill them and take there money, learn this.
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Good point, that's why I both day and swing trade very small, use position sizing etc.

I often do from 15-40 trades a day, it's not like I ever trade large size and ride it down, learned that lesson the hard way years ago :p
 
KCalhoun said:
Good point, that's why I both day and swing trade very small, use position sizing etc.

I often do from 15-40 trades a day, it's not like I ever trade large size and ride it down, learned that lesson the hard way years ago :p
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Bet some bet the farm, via Puts held to huge profits got greedy and down massively here!!

Good your not 1 of them.
 
KCalhoun said:
For the umpteenth time I make no performance nor profitability claims of any kind.
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That's all I needed to know. There are Nobel Prize winners who have blown up their funds so you can spare the academic credentials. And since practically everything I've seen in TASC is either subjective (especially now) or stuff that never worked in real time after it was published, I'm not interested in that either. If you have long-term testimonials of people you've taught (e.g., they took what they learned and are now verified full-time traders or successful fund managers), that would be worth noting.
 
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