Why does TA not work (for you)?

[BSAM]

Quote from marketsurfer:

She/He might survive eking out a living in a third tier economy. An edge is needed to be exceptional

Brother Surf...Since you haven't been a day trader since 2005, how is it you can be telling people how they need to trade?

 

[nigam arora]

You may find your answer here

http://thearorareport.com/ZYX METHOD.htm

Please study the section titled Technical Analysis Screen.

Traditional concepts increasingly do not work, but new concepts work great.

To stay successful at trading, you have to constantly change so that you maintain your edge.

Good Luck,

Nigam

 

[BSAM]

Quote from macattack:

Do you think a trader who did nothing but watch charts all day long could be an exceptional trader if he said the reason for his success was his money management or his decision-making process after entering a trade, instead of saying that charting was the reason?

Brother Mac, with all due respect, if you are watching price action all day on your chart, then that is what you are basing your trades off of, right?
Of course, proper money management is a big part of what you are employing also.
But the conversation has scarcely touched on that part of the equation.
When some hear the words price action and/or technical analysis they automatically want to start screaming about how wrong you are without consideration for your trading plan.
They think we are just jumping in at some arbitrary point with no thought for what might happen next and for the probabilities that occur over and over and over again.
But, hey, if nothing else, it's very good entertainment.

 

[cornix]

Quote from BSAM:

You know brother Black, I like to find things that I can agree on with a person.
So, I agree with this part of your post.
In fact I'd even say it's greater than 90%.

I'd be much happier to believe it's more like 99%. Seriously, 90% would make it way too easy game. Success rate in other good games, such as becoming even local champion (not even speaking of Olympic winner) in any kind of sports is way, WAY lower.

 

[cornix]

Quote from TheBlackHand:

BSAM & Coin -

You're kinda missing my point - probably never explained it that well.

if we say 70% of volume is paper, or your 'big boys' (sorry, but that sounds so gay), then the chart is clearly the aggregate of their activity. So, yes, of course a chart shows what they did.

I'm saying 'so what'. I dont care for what they did. I care for what the probabilities suggest will happen next. I say the chart cant tell you that. It may do sometimes, but a stopped clock is right twice a day too you know.

I know all the books will disagree with me, but I also know the institutional trader will agree with me - because they are not using charts to decide when to buy/sell.

If you think a chart can tell you this, then what you are in fact suggesting is that some of the brightest minds in the industry actually have no self control, as your magic lines, magic patterns and magic charts actually dictate their activity - clearly somehow gaining subconscious control over them?

I also say 90% 0f retail traders lose, and 90% of retail traders use charts exclusively.

In my experience 90% lose not because they use charts, they would lose without charts just as well, and they actually did lose before TA got popular too...

Now, you say taking trades based on what chart shows is BS... What makes you think it's impossible?

As for institutional traders, they probably trade differently not due to absence of self-control etc. But because institutions have very different requirements to their strategies (from risk management point of view etc.) which are not too compatible with relying on some guy or girl who "can read the charts".... By the way, do you consider old style "tape reading" to be a myth too?

 

[cornix]

Quote from oilfxpro:

It makes pips and it is simple.26 pips in the afternoon so far.

You didn't answer my question...

Is it really the most optimal or the only way to trade in your opinion?

 

[cornix]

Quote from marketsurfer:


You are a gifted intuitive with skills that can not be quantified--- they are very rare, but do exist..

Aha, so you agree such skills DO exist in the traders population, just can't be quantified?

 

[RCG Trader]

Quote from TheBlackHand:

LOL. You are a giggle!

My my. You are truly THE exceptional trader of all time. I admit this. You cant be equalled.

I'm sorry if I seem to have hit a nerve re your tax bill earlier. I was only teasing. I was hoping you'd be a bigger person than this - given youre the best trader the world has ever seen and all.

Now, back to the business at hand.....

So with your fancy database that tells you NOTHING but what has happened IN THE PAST, how on earth is this going to tell you that GSAM are about to dump 10,000 lots on the market RIGHT NOW?

Im sure you have some genius explanation that tells you when and where they will behave before they even know - but thats why you're such value. Even if you are part of the furniture round here.

Be lucky

Because Goldman cannot drop 10K all at once into the market, it will come in stages. The way these stages are read is called a gaussian. You will see a change in the gaussian in enuf time to capitalize on this.

 

[RCG Trader]

Quote from cornixforex:

Aha, so you agree such skills DO exist in the traders population, just can't be quantified?

Surf is right on this one. I won't say TA does not work, but I will say that indicators are suboptimal. They are derivatives of price or volume, every last one of em. So it would do one well to learn price and volume directly.

 

[oilfxpro]

Quote from cornixforex:

You didn't answer my question...

Is it really the most optimal or the only way to trade in your opinion?

Here is another profitable entry .

It is not the optimal way to trade , but it is simple and easy.

Use a unique betting sequence starting with a smaller than normal position size and traders will always end up profitable on a monthly basis.

Trading is very simple.