Why does TA not work (for you)?

[marketsurfer]

Quote from macattack:

I kind of lean towards agreeing with what you've said.
The traders I've seen that are successful by watching charts
seem to be very skilled at what you stated above. I think most
of the patterns & other stuff result in a 50/50 chance overall.
I'm not even sure how you would say if a pattern worked or not?
How far does price have to run & for how long to say it worked?

I do think the charts & TA or price action can help a trader though
with entries, & get their P/L in the green at least for a very short time.

It's not too hard to find points on a chart with a high probability of
at least a tiny bounce in price.

But after the entry is when the skilled trader will smoke a non-skilled
trader. I remember seeing some of NoDoji's trades & we would have
the exact same entries on trades that didn't work out.

The difference was she would somehow know to get out breakeven
or even up a couple ticks whereas I would take multiple losses. When
she finally caught a nice move she'd be up for the day, and I'd be lucky
to get back to even.

So anyway if charts are the wrong path what is the correct path?
What should I be watching & concentrating on?

No doubt--- money management is everything without having a quantifiable edge. If you don't understand how to get a real edge, money management is all you have.

Edge is understanding what drives the price prior to it moving, not following the movement ( self defeatist) but it may result in profits if you are highly skilled at money management as will any entry.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from traderchi128:

So I guess guys like Tudor Jones, Schwartz, Kovner, Marcus, etc don't count?
Makes sense....why would anyone listen to some of the best traders in the history of trading. The same guys who influenced some of the traders in the next 3 market wizards books.

You are on quite a roll Surf.

That book was written in 1987---- How many in the latest marketwizard SAY they use TA?

BY the way, those guys mostly make money on FEES, they don't count as "rich traders". You really shouldn't talk about things and people you only read about.

Remember, deception is a KEY part of the market..... but today, even saying you use charts ( for trade decisions in real time ) is worn out... no longer has the impact it once did, pre PC

Im interested in how these guys trade NOW, not in 1987-- here's a clue, its not with TA.

 

[logic_man]

Quote from TheBlackHand:



Now, back to the business at hand.....

So with your fancy database that tells you NOTHING but what has happened IN THE PAST, how on earth is this going to tell you that GSAM are about to dump 10,000 lots on the market RIGHT NOW?

Can someone please explain, for the love of clucking Christ, what there is that isn't "in the past" the instant an instant passes? Throwing the phrase "in the past" around like it is some kind of relevant critique in and of itself is nonsense. It's a given.

Some people know how to use the past better than others. Why humans would be differentiated on every skill except for that one would be interesting to hear about. One guy can use the past to make some sense of the future and another guy can't or can't as well or as consistently. Just like every other skill. The way in which each person is constrained by having to exist partially in the past and partially in the present differs from person to person.

Even in your example of GSAM dumping 10,000 lots, why would they be doing that? Obviously because of something they've just seen, i.e. something "in the past". Or are you saying that not only do they have a "crystal ball", that "crystal ball" uses information from the future to point GSAM in the right direction? That's one hell of a crystal ball. Think about what you are implying with your example, not just what you are saying.

 

[IanMacQuaide]

Quote from FreakofNature:

Those defined trends you need for that to work, they rarely form, and when you think they do, they fail to become defined by the time you enter. The ones that do last long enough for you to make money out of the pullbacks are even more rare.

This is not an edge this is an illusion of an edge.

Maybe it depends on how one defines a "trend".

If PA shoots past the last HI or LO pivot, it's trend enough for me.
Pull up a 5 Min chart and see for yourself.
Amazing to watch it real time.

The FIRST pullback is the most Valid one. I'd be happy to show you what I"m "seeing", if you wish.
Ian

 

[traderchi128]

Quote from marketsurfer:

No doubt--- money management is everything without having a quantifiable edge. If you don't understand how to get a real edge, money management is all you have.

Edge is understanding what drives the price prior to it moving, not following the movement ( self defeatist) but it may result in profits if you are highly skilled at money management as will any entry.

Surf....you still have to have money management with a "quantifiable edge" . Come on man. I don't care if a guy trades your way or is 100% TA. Without risk management he will fail.

Risk management and Money management are #1 and #2 on the list to being a great trader. #3 on the list....which can be a whole variety of things...is far below the top two.

Having what you call a "quantifiable edge" is 1000 miles down the list at #3. Just look at the guys who traded from 1996-2000 who had no risk management...they are all gone. Back then with the markets swinging wildly they would routinely get bailed out.

I traded with some real bright guys who had "quantifiable edges". Started a hedge fund with one guy who was a genius and had these quantifiable edges. But he lacked proper risk mgmt and took monster losses at times.

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from TheBlackHand:

So, if key levels are a myth, then surely that kind of suggests TA is a myth given support/resistance are considered key levels, and of course form the capstone of trend lines, channels and other such rubbish.

Please get acquainted with the DOM. Then learn the games played on the DOM. As this happens you will discover that trades are NOT the most active component of markets.

No idea about your code re 'bar 78' etc. I guess this is because you dont want the SEC to know what your up to.

At some point you will discover the margin requirement changes for all traders. Each day it changes on bar 78. The change is significant. The margin requirement changes by doubling. For me this is an event in the order of events. The rule I use is to "advance one peak in the pattern". You will find I am the inventor.

Clearly you are the best trader that ever walked the planet. Strange how such a high performer spends all his time on an internet forum trying to convince the anonymous. I'm starting to question why I bother coming here - and clearly I am not as skilled as you pretend to be.

Good luck with the SEC.

May I respectfully suggest you wear a foil hat? That way they will not know what your thinking - given you're clearly a genius and all.

 

[macattack]

Quote from TheBlackHand:

I still waiting for the Elite Traders of this site to name me one exceptional trader who has stated the reason for his success is charting. LOL.

Do you think a trader who did nothing but watch charts all day long could be an exceptional trader if he said the reason for his success was his money management or his decision-making process after entering a trade, instead of saying that charting was the reason?

 

[SamGold]

I've just had an epiphany: I'm the only drunk with a full bottle of whisky. The other drunks are all discussing how much whisky is left in the empty plastic bottle of 7-up.

I better GTFO of here... back to chitchat!. At least there are hot pics of singles, twins and triplets there!.

Short more ES!. Si!. Target 1318.

 

[ocean5]

Quote from SamGold:

I've just had an epiphany: I'm the only drunk with a full bottle of whisky. The other drunks are all discussing how much whisky is left in the empty plastic bottle of 7-up.

I better GTFO of here...

Short more ES!. Si!. Target 1318.

Quit drinking completely,ASAP!Don`t be a pig.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from macattack:

Do you think a trader who did nothing but watch charts all day long could be an exceptional trader if he said the reason for his success was his money management or his decision-making process after entering a trade, instead of saying that charting was the reason?

She/He might survive eking out a living in a third tier economy. An edge is needed to be exceptional