lol a bot posted literally after you.
Why do traders find it difficult to make money?
- Thread starter Waylen
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lol a bot posted literally after you.
View attachment 346621 View attachment 346622
Thank you very much for posting on this forum. I think too few here appreciate what you do for the community.
I have a couple questions about how you define a range and have noticed it's occasionally a little different than a Brooks definition (a 20+ bar pb)
In this specific example you posted, why do you consider this a range, and how/why did you ID it as a range so early? On the 7th PB bar inside the range you drew you (20th bar in the range) you declared it and the PB itself is only about 11 bars.
Another huge mahalo for you you do! I really appreciate your posts.
Aloha volpri,
Thank you very much for posting on this forum. I think too few here appreciate what you do for the community.
I have a couple questions about how you define a range and have noticed it's occasionally a little different than a Brooks definition (a 20+ bar pb)
In this specific example you posted, why do you consider this a range, and how/why did you ID it as a range so early? On the 7th PB bar inside the range you drew you (20th bar in the range) you declared it and the PB itself is only about 11 bars.
Another huge mahalo for you you do! I really appreciate your posts.
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Aloha SimpleMeLike,
Would it be possible for us to get a glimpse into your trading technique by telling us abobut your typical profit target(s)?
Good Evening HawaiianIceberg,
My profit target varies a lot. It is not only 1 profit target. I change it, some times I have no profit target and no stop loss.
I do not have a trading technique. what does trading technique means? My trading technique is make money and get rich.
I simply stare at the chart for 1-8 hours a day and guess all day and hope I am right. If I am wrong, I just take my loss and keep on going.
My trading technique is Do the Best I can to Be Rich, and be Rich Quickly.
Actually it was not declared a range nor drawn as a range until much later than 7 bars. Around the 19th or 20th I then ID’d it to be a TR and so annotated it in the chart.
Those trades previous to the 19 bar were NOT TR trades using TR techniques. I was using other techniques for those trades that had nothing to do with TRs. It is just that when I finally drew the TR box those first trades happened to fall within the box and formed part if the TR.
Hope that explains things. Once a TR is ID’s as such (in this case around 19 or 20 bars) then I use TR techniques. The very next trade (trade #4) was a TR technique. Going long in the bottom 1/3 of the now declared TR and exiting on the same bar for a 3pt scalp.
The fifth and last trade was close to market day session close. It was a bar that traded outside of bottom of the range. I was just simply betting I could get a quick 2 point short scalp before the close based on the concepts of inertia. I was betting we would get 2 more points down b4 any reversal up into the range. So I got it and grabbed it. Most BOs of bottom of an established TR fail with 3 to 5 bars and price heads back up towards the bottom of the TR. So, normally I would have done the reverse and faded this BO by going long. And scaling in on any adverse movement after my initial entry.
But the session was soon to be over (i don’t like building a position so close to market close, so, I just bet we would see inertia move it down at least 2 more points for a quick and last scalp of the day.
Please understand those first three trades were not TR trades. At that point there was no established TR in which to use TR techniques.I may sometimes begin drawing a rectangle a little before 20 bars and project it out into the future but I try to refrain using TR techniques prior to the 20th bar.
I admit there are times I may fudge a bit and start trading as if in a TR maybe on 17 or 19 bar but normally I prefer to wait for 20 bars.
Do you know why?
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Correct but the answer behind that is one of “odds.” Until 20 bars are made in a pause/pb a trader doesn’t know if there is a TR or not. Therefore any pause could simply be a PB and they are traded differently than TRs.
Once PA has “shown” that a range (price is the best indicator of price itself…Rascke) is now a range then odds go to about 50/50 that a successful BO out of top or bottom has about an equal probability. So it is no longer a PB from previous trend followed with continuation. It shows bulls and bears are both active and about equal in pressures they apply. Up until a TR is established then odds favor a continuation of the previous major trend.
Plus the odds of 80% of BOs out of an established TR will fail, so using fading strategies becomes viable. Eventually, a successful BO will happen. Then trading strategies will change. Remember the market cycle: TR to BO. BO to channel. These two the trend phase of the movement. Different techniques are used in each. Next channel to TR and using TR techniques. Then it all repeats. BO of TR…BO to Channel….Channel to TR. ….etc
Aloha volpri,
Thank you very much for your response!
I do not think I was clear with my question. I understand where you declared it a TR (bar 20 on attached chart), and I understand the trading techniques you used before and within the TR. I also understand where you start counting your 20 bars.
What is unclear to me is why you declared it a TR at all.
Likely I'm misunderstanding Brooks' definition of a TR being a 20+ bar PB. To me, it looks like there is only an 11 bar PB (starting on bar 13).
I know there will be a lot for me to learn from your response on this one. Thank you