Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

Quote from profturf:

i believe i have an idea why the good member has trouble trading with the trend. the reason is that in most markets, the trends are illusory. wills of the wisps that existed in the past, designed to lure you into losing big by following it with the big money after making with the small. However, in other markets the reason that the good member has trouble making money with the trend is that there are no trends in it.. the difference between the two markets can be ascertained by use of such things as the serial correaltion coefficient. which for example for the equity index markets for almost all relevant periods and differencing intervals shows such correrelations in the range of -0.03 to -0.12....
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Welcome to the threads.

A low serial correlation only means future price is poorly predicted by past price, not that future price is random.
 
Quote from Walther:

I can care less about cause, all I care about where will be the next reversal.
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Without a model of cause, or its equivalent, there's no way to predict effect.

Whatever other indicators you're using are carrying a heavy load.
 
Quote from easyrider:

Thanks. That was one of them. What about the other one. What was your reason for exiting at 1204.50? That was only a .75 pullback from the low. How did you know that was the bottom? You can get your exact time off your account. Fraction of a minute can make a lot of difference.
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01:36:24 for the exit. Price Failure from failed Prime Support. The exit was arbitrary because I had a phone call. I should have exited a couple minutes later based on the oscillations which would have put me out around1205.25. I added to the short position for the second trade @ 01:21:48 @ 1205.75.
 
Quote from profturf:

i believe i have an idea why the good member has trouble trading with the trend. the reason is that in most markets, the trends are illusory. wills of the wisps that existed in the past, designed to lure you into losing big by following it with the big money after making with the small. However, in other markets the reason that the good member has trouble making money with the trend is that there are no trends in it.. the difference between the two markets can be ascertained by use of such things as the serial correaltion coefficient. which for example for the equity index markets for almost all relevant periods and differencing intervals shows such correrelations in the range of -0.03 to -0.12 . as this is my first post, let me say i am most impressed with some of the insites on this list which i saw in the course of trying to find out an exact definition for the roll date. i am a humble speculator who likes to count to gain a rudder for my trades. and my handle is in honor of the great professional turf man, robert bacon, who found like one or your insiteful members that just because you make money in baktesting some system, you can't do it in practice... the tie in between turf handicapping and markets.... profturf.
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welcome to elite trader, my dear friend. very well said. we are endeavoring to steer our poor, lost proflogic onto testable waters, but he refuses to see the light. despite his intellect, he is trapped in the grand delusion.

perhaps i'll see you wednesday......

:) :):cool:
 
Quote from spike500:

Posting entry or exit is useless unless you post at 12.29: sold at 1208.5
and at 01.36 bought at 1204.50.

1204.50 was the lowest point at the 1 minute charts of the whole day.
Suspicious or at least a "lucky shot".
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You need to fix your data. 1203.75 was the low of the day. An that oscillation bottom was confirming a Failure of Prime Support from 1202.50 which confirmed Prime consolidation.
 
Quote from hank rollins:

all my calls are before the fact. although, calling the market is not my business. i post my trades, since it helps me focus and stick to my system.
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Wanna spend a day in here posting trades in realtime harry?

I have Wednesday free.
 
Quote from ProfLogic:

May I ask?

IT DB?
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Sorry it was a quicky from your chart.

Intermediate Term Double Bottom.

For those who are able to run through several fractals and always keep the various trend channel boundaries on them for short term , intermediate term and long term; it is not too difficult to follow what is going on in each successively tighter channel bounds. Especially if these channels are drawn ASAP and are extended through their expected life expectancy based upon what they depict (ST, IT or LT).

For me it makes it possible to understand that price never "falls off of the edge of the earth". It also gives a flavor of price continuing to try to reach an equilibrium at all times in the context of the (ST, IT and LT) and, as it does, new insults appear and nudge away to the extent of their source's influence. Greenspans are a good examples; superbowls are not.

Whatever your indicator is; it is showing the same pattern as what a double bottom would look like. The slight odd harmonic there is interesting since DB's are nortorious as being biased to even harmonics. Looks like the indicator is going to just touch the upper yellow line for a few of the upcoming days.
 
Quote from Grob109:

Sorry it was a quicky from your chart.

Intermediate Term Double Bottom.

For those who are able to run through several fractals and always keep the various trend channel boundaries on them for short term , intermediate term and long term; it is not too difficult to follow what is going on in each successively tighter channel bounds. Especially if these channels are drawn ASAP and are extended through their expected life expectancy based upon what they depict (ST, IT or LT).

For me it makes it possible to understand that price never "falls off of the edge of the earth". It also gives a flavor of price continuing to try to reach an equilibrium at all times in the context of the (ST, IT and LT) and, as it does, new insults appear and nudge away to the extent of their source's influence. Greenspans are a good examples; superbowls are not.

Whatever your indicator is; it is showing the same pattern as what a double bottom would look like. The slight odd harmonic there is interesting since DB's are nortorious as being biased to even harmonics. Looks like the indicator is going to just touch the upper yellow line for a few of the upcoming days.
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Thanks Jack

The Double Yellow lines a Prime Resistance & Prime Support levels. Those are the extremes. I use the Ergodic indicator to confirm price tops & bottoms because it doesn't deadhead like the STO or MACD. All oscilllations either between primes or failing primes are conservative trade set-ups based on the trend.
 
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