lol
Where are all the Trading and/or Investing topics showing Funnymentals work ....
- Thread starter SunTrader
- Start date
You're probably much more intelligent than I am -- though I may understand the game a little bit better due to my experience working on the street (analyst/trading/pm).Your level of sophistication far exceeds my simple “model,” I will grant you that. It is nothing short of impressive. But I have neither the acumen nor the resources to compete at that level. I completed my MBA in 1984, with most of the electives in finance. When I took investment finance courses at that time, they largely focused on CAPM (texts by Sharpe). I barely got through them with Bs, and determined then and there that a career in investments was not in the cards for me if that was how it got done. Your description brings those same feelings back home to me.
What are your thoughts on Soros’ theory of reflexivity, and how does it factor into your trading, if at all?
CAPM is a single factor model -- most on the street are using multi-factor models to describe risk in an equity portfolio. You might recall having to read Barra reports? These are useful to understand risk... most long-term investors understand that risk and return go hand in hand, which is generally true (market is "normally" efficient, though sometimes is not). Risk, also known as betas, are not the same as alphas. Taking "active" risk in a portfolio means diverging from a neutral "starting point" (usually market cap weighted). More useful for investors and wealth managers with longer time horizon. For alpha seekers, being risk aware is key because betas tend to drive a stock price and can break your trade. Hence why most hedge funders prefer long/short or spread approaches, where they can isolate a trade.
Soros was far ahead of his time -- he was able to exploit behavioural biases that analysts had which linear extrapolation based upon historical results. This created "feedback loops" which reenforced a narrative until it came crashing down, which is reflexivity in a nutshell. Soros wasn't using fibonacci or 5min charts to find trading opportunities, and neither should you. IMO individual traders can be a lot more profitable if they spent a little bit of time upfront to learn about markets, trading, and the types of opportunities available.
Practice doesn't make perfect. Perfect practice makes perfect.
LOL
"The DeMark indicators are sophisticated standalone market-timing tools, but they can also be used with more traditional technical studies such as: Moving averages, Momentum oscillators, Trendlines, Fibonacci retracements, and Elliott wave." "Differentiating between trading ranges and trend exhaustion is a problem that has long plagued traders in every market sector. In a sea of predominantly trend-following technical studies, one set of contrarian market-timing indicators stands out from the rest, precisely because it is predictive: DeMark indicators were designed specifically to anticipate trend reversals. Their creator, Tom DeMark, has served as consultant to such revered money managers as George Soros, Paul Tudor Jones, and Steven A. Cohen."
"The DeMark indicators are sophisticated standalone market-timing tools, but they can also be used with more traditional technical studies such as: Moving averages, Momentum oscillators, Trendlines, Fibonacci retracements, and Elliott wave." "Differentiating between trading ranges and trend exhaustion is a problem that has long plagued traders in every market sector. In a sea of predominantly trend-following technical studies, one set of contrarian market-timing indicators stands out from the rest, precisely because it is predictive: DeMark indicators were designed specifically to anticipate trend reversals. Their creator, Tom DeMark, has served as consultant to such revered money managers as George Soros, Paul Tudor Jones, and Steven A. Cohen."
Yes for $500/mo you too can get premium demark indicators lol
I don't need to. I got DeMark authorized studies through TradeStation 20+ years ago and they still work thank you very much.
Isn't TA great. lol
Shows how much you pay attention. I've mentioned it numerous times and post charts image out the ying, yang yet you still spot ignorance nonsense, like you are some great authority - on something you don't even use.
And about "ALL" of Wall Street doesn't use it. All of Wall Street doesn't use one thing and one thing only - assume much. You need to get out more often.
Of course TA can be chit -some works, some doesn't.
Same goes for the folks saying it doesn't work at all.
You missed the satire. $500/mo. is less than the cocaine daily dealers tip at P72.
HFs are spending millions of dollars in payroll, data, and research tools... and your takeaway is that a $500/mo. line item provides the validity of your entire process.
Assume again ... and again and ...You missed the satire. $500/mo. is less than the cocaine daily dealers tip at P72.
HFs are spending millions of dollars in payroll, data, and research tools... and your takeaway is that a $500/mo. line item provides the validity of your entire process.
(SIVB)Oh, that's gonna leave a bruise. Better rub some dirt on it.(SIVB) yuuuge drop today - nothing funnymental about that, for shareholders. -$663.22 a share on touching today's low of $100 even. Oh wait that is since hitting all time a few months ago. That's right it was down overall -$663.22 from its high of $763.22 back in November. Today's drop was "only" $166 of the total $663. drop.
But hey it closed up $6 from the LOD. Likely only because some weak shorts got squeezed. Prolly more pain as soon as hmmm tomorrow. Scan those spreadchits some more, crank up those algos, disseminate that info - got weiners like this one to find.
View attachment 308419
How did you happen across this today?
What exactly am I assuming lol?