I just crunched the UK death rate going into the peak assuming a 60% have no symptoms based on 10% per day growth ( 33% without lock downs ) and a 14day lag, which means the peak is probably already over or next few days just waiting for the 14day incumbation period.
And if they don't exceed the NHS Capacity for Ventilators ( got enough beds and Oxygen atleast ) then, it's a big number and I feel sick, if it goes over which is will, then I feel really sick.
They didn't start the social distancing till 2 weeks to late, they hadn't allowed for the lag, they didn't flatten the curve in time, this last 2 weeks has pretty much just been a show, but still well under initial estimates so they'll still get a pat on the back, bastards.
12-16K if they get the Ventilators, Max about 34K depending on access.
200-300% more hospital uptake next 2 weeks, than from the start 6weeks ago
Deaths lag 4days behind so 3weeks, before deaths start to drop.
Defo, 6week lock down!!
Chrloraquine, reduce deaths by 90% but no mention, so my guess is too late again.