When was the last time 14 people died of the flu in 12hrs...in one hospital?

[El OchoCinco]

I just crunched the UK death rate going into the peak assuming a 60% have no symptoms based on 10% per day growth ( 33% without lock downs ) and a 14day lag, which means the peak is probably already over or next few days just waiting for the 14day incumbation period.

And if they don't exceed the NHS Capacity for Ventilators ( got enough beds and Oxygen atleast ) then, it's a big number and I feel sick, if it goes over which is will, then I feel really sick.

They didn't start the social distancing till 2 weeks to late, they hadn't allowed for the lag, they didn't flatten the curve in time, this last 2 weeks has pretty much just been a show, but still well under initial estimates so they'll still get a pat on the back, bastards.

12-16K if they get the Ventilators, Max about 34K depending on access.

200-300% more hospital uptake next 2 weeks, than from the start 6weeks ago

Deaths lag 4days behind so 3weeks, before deaths start to drop.

Defo, 6week lock down!!

Chrloraquine, reduce deaths by 90% but no mention, so my guess is too late again.

welcome to the panic

 

[Turveyd]

Go ahead Einstein ... tell us why we would never cycle a few periods of social distancing instead of one long one?

Tell how the fuck you would know that for each new serious virus, you would never need to cycle periods of shutdown

You are such a douchebag when you are wrong.

===


Nothing I said was wrong... because I wrote in hypotheticals and I read the information in an article by Ivy league doctors.... who were consulting or connected to the CDC.

They spoke of the risk of a long period of social distancing being that when the shut down terminated, the virus could spike again.

Their concept was that we should consider cycle between shorter social distancing shutdowns and then no shutdown... so you have a chance to build herd immunity..

There is no argument against what they wrote... Its a method that could work depending on transmission rates and other factors of each disease. Obviously the timing of the cycles would be key.

Only you and a bunch of follow the leftist leader fools would even argue against an almost axiomatic idea.. How fricken dense are you on this?

Shut downs not required, from the data in the UK, everyone has it pretty much already, just waiting 14days for the 1's that it'll affect to affect, 200-300% more than what's already gone to date, depending on the % which don't have symptoms.

China daily data update soon, looking for 2nd spike data should come, up a tad 26th so like a lower figure to average out really.

Didn't have to bankrupt country, but still did, hmmmm, earlier social distance about 2 weeks would of saved 1000's.

 

[Turveyd]

welcome to the panic

The deaths was never my point, it's the scare tactics and the 4.6% death rate BS and the 20year olds scared it's going to kill them.

Looking at 0.05% so Flu x's 2 worst case on the figures. ( flu 17K, 0.024% UK )

There treating it like a plague, can't see relatives that have died, pretty damn sick.

Bastards put all measures in too late, they want the deaths, but they also want to beat the estimates hugely, therefore they saved the day and everyone will let them get away with murder

Also, they don't give a fuck about old people getting flu and dying, so why would they care, they don't, just after opinion points and more power

 

[El OchoCinco]

The deaths was never my point, it's the scare tactics and the 4.6% death rate BS and the 20year olds scared it's going to kill them.

Looking at 0.05% so Flu x's 2 worst case on the figures. ( flu 17K, 0.024% UK )

There treating it like a plague, can't see relatives that have died, pretty damn sick.

Bastards put all measures in too late, they want the deaths, but they also want to beat the estimates hugely, therefore they saved the day and everyone will let them get away with murder

Also, they don't give a fuck about old people getting flu and dying, so why would they care, they don't, just after opinion points and more power

Again it was never the mortality rate but people are dying.

it is how fast it spreads and how it can overwhelm the system.

Also flu is easier to control. This is exponential

 

[Turveyd]

Again it was never the mortality rate but people are dying.

it is how fast it spreads and how it can overwhelm the system.

Also flu is easier to control. This is exponential

Flu is not controllable at all and the same pretty much, still kill the same way.

They where scaring everyone with 4.6% which also hinders a lot of other things, BS is hated!!

 

[El OchoCinco]

I just crunched the UK death rate going into the peak assuming a 60% have no symptoms based on 10% per day growth ( 33% without lock downs ) and a 14day lag, which means the peak is probably already over or next few days just waiting for the 14day incumbation period.

And if they don't exceed the NHS Capacity for Ventilators ( got enough beds and Oxygen atleast ) then, it's a big number and I feel sick, if it goes over which is will, then I feel really sick.

They didn't start the social distancing till 2 weeks to late, they hadn't allowed for the lag, they didn't flatten the curve in time, this last 2 weeks has pretty much just been a show, but still well under initial estimates so they'll still get a pat on the back, bastards.

12-16K if they get the Ventilators, Max about 34K depending on access.

200-300% more hospital uptake next 2 weeks, than from the start 6weeks ago

Deaths lag 4days behind so 3weeks, before deaths start to drop.

Defo, 6week lock down!!

Chrloraquine, reduce deaths by 90% but no mention, so my guess is too late again.

Isnt this you saying how serious this is and you also saying how much bullshit it is people are getting scared...

are you feeling okay?

 

[El OchoCinco]

then, it's a big number and I feel sick, if it goes over which is will, then I feel really sick.

T
200-300% more hospital uptake next 2 weeks, than from the start 6weeks ago

Deaths lag 4days behind so 3weeks, before deaths start to drop.

Defo, 6week lock down!!

.

STOP TREATING THIS LIKE A PLAGUE CALM DOWN PEOPLE!!!

 

[jem]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...ng-makes-sense-only-with-huge-fiscal-stimulus

...

• Third, given governments’ adoption of social distancing, the dilemmas we face will continue until an effective anti-viral or therapeutic can be found that allows us to contract the disease without suffering significant harm. In the meantime, even if current efforts are successful at attenuating the spread of the disease over the next several weeks, social distancing will need to be re-imposed in cycles. Given the plausible timetable for developing a vaccine, and unless we get very lucky and the virus itself mutates in a less harmful direction, these cycles could continue for well more than a year.
• Fourth, a proper response to the Covid-19 crisis will stress test the increasingly popular proposition that government deficits don’t matter. This is a fiscal risk worth taking. Indeed, those who argue that the cost is too high or that a stunning increase in the deficit is too risky need to return to the first point above, because the budget impact reflects the economic consequences of social distancing. If you don’t like the fiscal cost but you favor social distancing, what you’re really saying is that you are willing to accept millions of bankruptcies and the ripping apart of corporate and social fabrics across the world.
• Fifth, the economic harm comes mostly from the sudden stop in business activity due to social distancing, not the lost productivity of those suffering or dying from Covid-19. The demographics of those suffering from coronavirus and those suffering from the economic virus are quite different.

 

[Turveyd]

Isnt this you saying how serious this is and you also saying how much bullshit it is people are getting scared...

are you feeling okay?

>0 deaths = Serious, never said it wasn't.

TV saying, Peak expected next Sunday then 14day lag period, might give them more time, I reckon before this so we'll see who's right, hopefully them.

But it's a LONG LONG LONG way of 4.6% there spinning thankfully.

 

[Turveyd]

Plague is 30-60% death rate, damn snow flakes need to grow some balls.