What statistic could replace earnings in the "Amazon era?"

[taowave]

Let me guess,you don't trade derivatives

Wrong. its your job as a trader to take high probability trades. 51+% of the time they work, the other times they dont. There is no way you know you will be right on any individual trade.

You cannot predict human behavior for thousands of people at once, which the market is a reflection of. All it takes is 1 person to shit on your prediction. Therefore prediction, and you thinking you are Ms Cleo, is an unreliable way to look at the markets.

 

[Tradex]

You cannot predict human behavior for thousands of people at once, which the market is a reflection of.

Absolutely, excellent point.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

your original point was foolish as best. It’s your job as a trader to predict. Maybe you predict that the trend will continue. Or that the trend will reverse or that a spread will collapse. But you are always predicting.

If you have sound logic to believe there is a 65% chance something will happen... Then that's a prediction.

I don't know why this guy is hung up thinking anyone is talking about predicting with 100% certainty.

 

[taowave]

What in the world are you talking about??

Any time you place a bet you have an implied prediction...trend following,mean reversion,long gamma short gamma..

By your definition,go sell the tails as big as you can..Odd are you will be a great predictor 95 percent of the time

SYNONYM STUDY FOR PREDICT
Predict, prophesy, foresee, forecast mean to know or tell (usually correctly) beforehand what will happen. To predict is usually to foretell with precision of calculation, knowledge, or shrewd inference from facts or experience.


prob·a·bil·i·ty
/ˌpräbəˈbilədē/
Learn to pronounce

noun

1. the extent to which something is probable; the likelihood of something happening or being the case.
   
   
   51% is hardly precision of calculation or being "usually correct".
   
   Words mean things. And to perpetuate the lie that you can somehow predict the human behavior for thousands of people at once is retarded. No wonder why you were "laid off" in 2011. Not making the bank any money.
   
   Banks dont lay off people who are bringing in cash.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

What in the world are you talking about??

Any time you place a bet you have an implied prediction...trend following,mean reversion,long gamma short gamma..

By your definition,go sell the tails as big as you can..Odd are you will be a great predictor 95 percent of the time

I'm glad other people see this guy's nonsense.

 

[newwurldmn]

SYNONYM STUDY FOR PREDICT
Predict, prophesy, foresee, forecast mean to know or tell (usually correctly) beforehand what will happen. To predict is usually to foretell with precision of calculation, knowledge, or shrewd inference from facts or experience.


prob·a·bil·i·ty
/ˌpräbəˈbilədē/
Learn to pronounce

noun

1. the extent to which something is probable; the likelihood of something happening or being the case.
   
   
   51% is hardly precision of calculation or being "usually correct".
   
   Words mean things. And to perpetuate the lie that you can somehow predict the human behavior for thousands of people at once is retarded. No wonder why you were "laid off" in 2011. Not making the bank any money.
   
   Banks dont lay off people who are bringing in cash.

My story is actually more complex as my job was eliminated because of the volcker rule. I was offered a position to trade prop within the flow business but I didn’t enjoy it. I figured it was time to execute my 10 year plan: use my net worth to do something entrepreneurial.

Given that you are aiming to be a plumber, I will hazard to say my trading account is up more this year than your entire lifetime earnings will be.

good luck in your search to become profitable without trying to predict the future. Maybe you will be one of those guys “who doesn’t predict, only reacts.” But since words mean things my guess is that you will end up just trading stock with a random number generator.

 

[newwurldmn]

If you have sound logic to believe there is a 65% chance something will happen... Then that's a prediction.

I don't know why this guy is hung up thinking anyone is talking about predicting with 100% certainty.

You can earn predicting with an accuracy of 10percent.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

You can earn predicting with an accuracy of 10percent.

That would be if your reward heavily outweighs the risk?

TP > -SL ?

 

[newwurldmn]

That would be if your reward heavily outweighs the risk?

TP > -SL ?

That would be if your reward heavily outweighs the risk?

TP > -SL ?

what is tp and sl?

 

[farmerjohn1324]

what is tp and sl?

Take Profit and Stop Loss. I was just using this as a general term... But you could also say the Max Profit or Max Loss from options spreads, etc.