What statistic could replace earnings in the "Amazon era?"

farmerjohn1324 said:
Take Profit and Stop Loss. I was just using this as a general term... But you could also say the Max Profit or Max Loss from options spreads, etc.
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your expected value has to be positive: prob(right)*psyoff(right) > (1-prob(right))*payoff(not right)

In general your opinion of prob(outcome) <> market implied prob(outcome)
 
newwurldmn said:
your expected value has to be positive: prob(right)*psyoff(right) > (1-prob(right))*payoff(not right)

In general your opinion of prob(outcome) <> market implied prob(outcome)
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Did the prop firm you worked for have any guidelines you had to follow? What were you trading? Futures, stock options, currency pairs?
 
newwurldmn said:
My story is actually more complex as my job was eliminated because of the volcker rule. I was offered a position to trade prop within the flow business but I didn’t enjoy it. I figured it was time to execute my 10 year plan: use my net worth to do something entrepreneurial.

Given that you are aiming to be a plumber, I will hazard to say my trading account is up more this year than your entire lifetime earnings will be.

good luck in your search to become profitable without trying to predict the future. Maybe you will be one of those guys “who doesn’t predict, only reacts.” But since words mean things my guess is that you will end up just trading stock with a random number generator.
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Who said i was going to be a plumber? You cant even read a simple sentence on a fuckin forum. The Volcker rule is what they told you at least.

No wonder why you have no idea what prediction means.
 
IamTheCasino said:
Who said i was going to be a plumber? You cant even read a simple sentence on a fuckin forum. The Volcker rule is what they told you at least.

No wonder why you have no idea what prediction means.
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Maybe you are going back to school to be a mime. I don’t really care.

Stick with your semantics. It’ll make you rich.
 
farmerjohn1324 said:
I will predict that the S&P 500 will be higher in 20 years than it is right now. If I'm wrong, I'll give you $1,000.
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%%
LOL + add dividends to that...……………………………………………………………………………………...
OF course earnings matter==== that's why tech sector has been so super strong for decades. SQQQ+ inverse tech etfs do NOT change that; I trade both tech + inverse tech ETFs every now + then.
AMZN is an extreme example+ good thing its tech sector.
Debt +sales can matter also;
ask
Long Term Capital Management, LEH+ Bear Stearns. [Edit, thats NOT a prediction; big difference between a high probability + infallibility]
 
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FarmerJ,to get back to your original question,you really should look at portfolio123 and,run backtests.The problem is,it,will only tell you what worked in the past,and last I looked there was no WFA..Its the best fundamental backtester on the,market,and if,nothing else it will introduce you rebalancing and ranking.You will discover if technical conditions increase returns for fundamental factor models..

As for your direct question,I would probably take R and D over Capex (for technology)to go along with some sort of rev/earnings metric..
 
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taowave said:
FarmerJ,to get back to your original question,you really should look at portfolio123 and,run backtests.The problem is,it,will only tell you what worked in the past,and last I looked there was no WFA..Its the best fundamental backtester on the,market,and if,nothing else it will introduce you rebalancing and ranking.You will discover if technical conditions increase returns for fundamental factor models..

As for your direct question,I would probably take R and D over Capex (for technology)to go along with some sort of rev/earnings metric..
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Do you know any software that will let me backtest technical analysis on Forex pairs?
 
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