What statistic could replace earnings in the "Amazon era?"

[Tradex]

My brokerage (Schwab) has $1200 maintenance margin for Micro ES.

I guess I missed out.

I currently have 3 RBM21 (gasoline futures). They briefly went down to the worst case scenario on my prediction and I almost was forced to sell at 100% loss (-$17,100), but they went way up towards the end of last week. I'm still slightly in the negative, but I think it will look better once the major economies open up more, and especially once vaccines start coming out. That's why I bought well into next year.

Oh boy, you are really trying to predict the market using "logic" and "common sense".
This approach never works in the long run, trust me on this one.
Anyway, good luck.

 

[ElectricSavant]

I predict the market will move. I have a reasonable expectation of this because it has happened before. If direction exists then that is proof that the market is not random.

Es

P.s. There is a hole in the fence and all the cattle are escaping.

 

[newwurldmn]

I can predict i will die when im older. Your point is foolish at best.

your original point was foolish as best. It’s your job as a trader to predict. Maybe you predict that the trend will continue. Or that the trend will reverse or that a spread will collapse. But you are always predicting.

 

[newwurldmn]

By "Amazon era," I mean that companies can now have zero or little earnings and still be desirable companies. This is only if they are spending their potential earnings on reinvestment in the company to increase future earnings.

What statistic should I be looking for on the financial statements? Earnings plus CAPEX? Am I on the right track?

earnings + capex for growth?
Revenue growth rates and operating leverage?
Underlying Market growth.
Sustainability of revenues and revenue growth.

 

[taowave]

Sanity restored....

your original point was foolish as best. It’s your job as a trader to predict. Maybe you predict that the trend will continue. Or that the trend will reverse or that a spread will collapse. But you are always predicting.

 

[IamTheCasino]

your original point was foolish as best. It’s your job as a trader to predict. Maybe you predict that the trend will continue. Or that the trend will reverse or that a spread will collapse. But you are always predicting.

Wrong. its your job as a trader to take high probability trades. 51+% of the time they work, the other times they dont. There is no way you know you will be right on any individual trade.

You cannot predict human behavior for thousands of people at once, which the market is a reflection of. All it takes is 1 person to shit on your prediction. Therefore prediction, and you thinking you are Ms Cleo, is an unreliable way to look at the markets.

 

[newwurldmn]

Wrong. its your job as a trader to take high probability trades. 51+% of the time they work, the other times they dont. There is no way you know you will be right on any individual trade.

You cannot predict human behavior for thousands of people at once, which the market is a reflection of. All it takes is 1 person to shit on your prediction. Therefore prediction, and you thinking you are Ms Cleo, is an unreliable way to look at the markets.

you are still predicting even if you are only right 51percent of the time.

You might realize this as you enter your second month of your trading career.

 

[newwurldmn]

earnings + capex for growth?
Revenue growth rates and operating leverage?
Underlying Market growth.
Sustainability of revenues and revenue growth.

earnings + capex for growth?
Revenue growth rates and operating leverage?
Underlying Market growth.
Sustainability of revenues and revenue growth.

Free cashflow is prob the most relevant.

 

[IamTheCasino]

you are still predicting even if you are only right 51percent of the time.

You might realize this as you enter your second month of your trading career.

SYNONYM STUDY FOR PREDICT
Predict, prophesy, foresee, forecast mean to know or tell (usually correctly) beforehand what will happen. To predict is usually to foretell with precision of calculation, knowledge, or shrewd inference from facts or experience.


prob·a·bil·i·ty
/ˌpräbəˈbilədē/
Learn to pronounce

noun

1. the extent to which something is probable; the likelihood of something happening or being the case.
   
   
   51% is hardly precision of calculation or being "usually correct".
   
   Words mean things. And to perpetuate the lie that you can somehow predict the human behavior for thousands of people at once is retarded. No wonder why you were "laid off" in 2011. Not making the bank any money.
   
   Banks dont lay off people who are bringing in cash.
   

 

[taowave]

Free cash flow was one of my go to metrics,but if I'm curve fitting in the crazy market,I would opt for some form of revenue growth..

Piotriski F score was another oldie but goodie...

metrics,b

earnings + capex for growth?
Revenue growth rates and operating leverage?
Underlying Market growth.
Sustainability of revenues and revenue growth.

Free cashflow is prob the most relevant.