I can assure you that macroeconomics (and economics in general) will not add a single penny to your trading account.
Seriously, when was the last time you saw a macroeconomics professor parking his Ferrari in his Beverly Hills mansion?
What statistic could replace earnings in the "Amazon era?"
- Thread starter farmerjohn1324
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I can assure you that macroeconomics (and economics in general) will not add a single penny to your trading account.
Seriously, when was the last time you saw a macroeconomics professor parking his Ferrari in his Beverly Hills mansion?
What rules are you talking about? There are no rules when throwing a pair of dice or spinning a roulette wheel in terms of the outcome.
And what you mean is "i just need to predict it correctly 51% of the time" ....... There is no predicting of the markets and all it takes is 1 person to fuck up your "prediction"
this is why you shouldnt care about what happens on a single trade, win or lose. What you should care about is how well are you sticking to YOUR rules for enter, exiting, trade management etc. A trade audit every 20+ trades to see how your trades played out.
Even something like following a trend isn't always possible to identify until after the fact.
For example, look at the S&P since 9/2/20. Is it in a new downtrend? Or just a slight dip as part of a larger uptrend?
There are ways to quantify a trend: using moving averages for instance, or regression lines.
And then you can backtest such trend-following techniques and see that they are indeed profitable.
George Soros.
And like I said previously, most macroeconomics professors don't even understand the fundamentals.
I never claimed it was easy to get a clear picture of what's going on with the economy. And with such a hazy view, definitely not a good idea to bet large sums of highly leveraged money on it.
For me personally, I had some fairly obvious predictions about how things would change as the lockdowns eased. All of them came true.
What does the context say? there is your answer. And that answer would be based on the probability of being correct 51% of the time.
The way the casino makes its profit is by paying you winnings that are lower than the odds that would make a game break-even. For example, if the casino made you risk $110 to win $100 on a coin toss, in the long run, the casino would make a profit. 50% of the time, they'd lose $100.
How did your moving averages help you when the coronavirus hit?
Hop off George Soros's dick.
Second, there havent been enough lockdowns to say your "predictions" have a high probability win rate in the long run.
Dumb logic.
Easy, you short the market when the price closes below a certain moving average, for instance.
It is a little more complicated than that of course but that's the general idea.
Again, we don't care about the direction of the market, we just follow it, up or down it does not matter.
^^
We found the Internet tough guy of the forum!
Do you still live at your mommies house?