What is your analysis of PTJ's prediction of the 1987 crash?

[Error Correction Funder]

I don't know. I have only been following him this year. I did use the prediction to buy puts which I sold before the really big crash, for a measly 100%. (I wish I had known about how XIV worked...my heart is still in pain for the missed opportunity) It is possible to see through old posts on his blog. Some say he did, some say he didn't. But from what I have seen, the Socrates computer is generally accurate, most of the time. For example, the short term trading timing model called for a turn on 3/1 on the Dow Jones from the 4 day downtrend. It happened on 3/2. However, its support not hit on 3/1, so there was a small disparity. The next day was the actual low, and it was less than 100 points off its predicted support, on an intraday basis. It also called the 'Panic Cycle' reversal on 2/27 which was the beginning of that downtrend. It was all predicted on the beginning on 2/19.

This guy has recognized the crash shape, but I don't think he can predict them in advance:

If they would at least show their final data vs history, I could determine if they know what they're doing or not.

 

[Jackpot]

This guy has recognized the crash shape, but I don't think he can predict them in advance:

If they would at least show their final data vs history, I could determine if they know what they're doing or not.

Possible. The whole thing seems to me, very informal and such. But it is now calling for Dow 22.4k either next week or into the last week, of April. I also have a picture of the generated weekly inflection points for the NASDAQ Composite that the computer creates a week in advance which I'll post when I get home. It does quite well.

 

[Error Correction Funder]

Possible. The whole thing seems to me, very informal and such. But it is now calling for Dow 22.4k either next week or into the last week, of April. I also have a picture of the generated weekly inflection points for the NASDAQ Composite that the computer creates a week in advance which I'll post when I get home. It does quite well.

That seems likely.

Considering the pace so far, it will probably be another 4 weeks or so until this crash trajectory has ended.

 

[Jackpot]

That seems likely.

Considering the pace so far, it will probably be another 4 weeks or so until this crash trajectory has ended.

Inflections for the Nasdaq. As you can see, it does fairly well in picking support and resistance points.

I have also been using its system to play earnings reports. However, the opportunity to do so is rare now, as it does not often give a 'likely' reading these days, because everything is bearish. And yes, it does technically recognizes patterns and trends, and where their breaking points are. The cyclical timing model is very interesting, however. The top row, Composite, is a summation of all cyclical 'hits' and the highest bars implies a change in trend at that point. It even has the chart of the Roman monetary collapse charted out and it correlates chart patterns throughout history as well as commodities, interest rates, inflation, etc. So it recognizes that when gold does not go up when the market crashes when interest rate is X, it is a this kind of crash instead of that kind. It does take many different things, including global monetary flow, to model, and continually learns, as it is an artificial intelligence.

If you want a crazy prediction it's making, here it is:

Combined with the Reversal system, it is saying that "The technical resistance stands at the Downtrend Line at the 3% level. Rates will double to reach that area faster than people suspect. We have a Directional Change due in May and look at the August/September period where we also have a Panic Cycle. Things are not going to be as smooth-sailing as many believe. We have a very RARE Double Monthly Bullish Reversal at 2.25%. A monthly closing above that level and 5% will be seen in a matter of months."

Keep in mind (of course, we all know this) that these are just CLAIMS of how it works and what it does, not necessarily that it actually does so in that manner. It is just that, in my experience, it has done relatively well. The sharp rise in volatility of February which was claimed at the beginning of January was easily the most impressive one thus far, from my experience.

 

[Pekelo]

I just took a look at 2008 again from a technician's POV. Interestingly, the biggest 48 hours move was a rally, from 850 to 1050. That is a 23% rally in 2 days...

%-wise the 2 longest daily bars were also rallies. (90 and 95 points)

 

[mbondy]

MA, Martin Armstrong. Some say he is a fraud, and who knows, maybe he is. But I was following him since the beginning of the year and he was calling for a highly volatile February based on his computer's artificial intelligence which uses a database of cyclical information dating back thousands of years. I have been using it in trading as well.

The picture is an 'array', you can see how it works here:

https://imgur.com/a/XjmXL

(keep in mind, that array is an older one, I have the updated one if anyone needs)

Where can I find this information for myself?

I'm not a technician or forecaster by any means but most of what you've copied/pasted here is economically sound information that concurs with my own market view. I'd like to see more, this seems useful.

 

[Jackpot]

Where can I find this information for myself?

I'm not a technician or forecaster by any means but most of what you've copied/pasted here is economically sound information that concurs with my own market view. I'd like to see more, this seems useful.

Martin Armstrong's website is Armstrongeconomics.com and the usage of the Socrates AI system is ask-socrates.com. Keep in mind that Armstrong does have strong political views. ask-socrates has a free 1 month trial and $15 a month after, but having more email accounts would allow multiple trials. Not endorsing either. I have been through his articles through the archives so one could see how his predictions panned out. Most fascinating is the unconventional economic theory backed by historical examples. There are excellent articles on it.

 

[mbondy]

Martin Armstrong's website is Armstrongeconomics.com and the usage of the Socrates AI system is ask-socrates.com. Keep in mind that Armstrong does have strong political views. ask-socrates has a free 1 month trial and $15 a month after, but having more email accounts would allow multiple trials. Not endorsing either. I have been through his articles through the archives so one could see how his predictions panned out. Most fascinating is the unconventional economic theory backed by historical examples. There are excellent articles on it.

Awesome. Thanks very much.

 

[Patryk Jalmuzna]

You think he is still using elliott wave theory?

 

[Money Trust]

This is all hindsight by now, but any chartist would have saw that the markets were about to decline around that time in 1987.

I've posted a chart explaining why. The mood had turned bearish way before Black Monday. The market double topped in August, broke down in early September and came back to test the break down in early October. If I were around back then (I was a year old at the time), my system would have had me short in early October. I wouldn't have expected for the bottom to fall out like that, though. In fact, I probably would've expected some short-covering in the blue shaded area but had it not bounced, I would've stayed short....or I would have used any rally to sell more.