What is your analysis of PTJ's prediction of the 1987 crash?
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PJ is a legend in the trading world from working his way up from a floor runner in the cotton pits to becoming a billionaire. He is a real philanthropist, giving away $ away to helping poor children. All you haters of classic TA, here is some humble pie for you.
What we can all learn from PJ:
#1 He has a strong work ethic based on passion for the business.
“The secret to being successful from a trading perspective is to have an indefatigable and an undying and unquenchable thirst for information and knowledge.”
#2 He followed price action not fundamental valuations.
“At the end of the day, your job is to buy what goes up and to sell what goes down.”
#3 He was able to stay humble and stay flexible. He was always ready to admit he was wrong and exit any trade.
“Every day I assume every position I have is wrong.”
#4 He did not believe in adding to a losing trade.
“Losers average losers.”
#5 Mr. Jones adapted, evolved, and was a competitor in his trading.
“You adapt, evolve, compete or die.”
#6 He learned the lessons of early failure instead of quitting or repeating the failures.
“Failure was a key element to my life’s journey.”
#7 Paul Tudor Jones was a risk manager first and a trader second.
“At the end of the day, the most important thing is how good are you at risk control.”
#8 He cut losses quickly instead of holding them and wishing they would come back. He saved a lot of mental pain and stress that way.
“If I have positions going against me, I get right out; if they are going for me, I keep them… Risk control is the most important thing in trading. If you have a losing position that is making you uncomfortable, the solution is very simple: Get out, because you can always get back in.”
#9 Paul Tudor Jones traded smaller during losing streaks.
“When I am trading poorly, I keep reducing my position size. That way, I will be trading my smallest position size when my trading is worst.“
#10 He looked for only the very best risk/reward trading opportunities.
“I look for opportunities with tremendously skewed reward-risk opportunities. Don’t ever let them get into your pocket – that means there’s no reason to leverage substantially. There’s no reason to take substantial amounts of financial risk ever, because you should always be able to find something where you can skew the reward risk relationship so greatly in your favor that you can take a variety of small investments with great reward risk opportunities that should give you minimum draw down pain and maximum upside opportunities”
What we can all learn from PJ:
#1 He has a strong work ethic based on passion for the business.
“The secret to being successful from a trading perspective is to have an indefatigable and an undying and unquenchable thirst for information and knowledge.”
#2 He followed price action not fundamental valuations.
“At the end of the day, your job is to buy what goes up and to sell what goes down.”
#3 He was able to stay humble and stay flexible. He was always ready to admit he was wrong and exit any trade.
“Every day I assume every position I have is wrong.”
#4 He did not believe in adding to a losing trade.
“Losers average losers.”
#5 Mr. Jones adapted, evolved, and was a competitor in his trading.
“You adapt, evolve, compete or die.”
#6 He learned the lessons of early failure instead of quitting or repeating the failures.
“Failure was a key element to my life’s journey.”
#7 Paul Tudor Jones was a risk manager first and a trader second.
“At the end of the day, the most important thing is how good are you at risk control.”
#8 He cut losses quickly instead of holding them and wishing they would come back. He saved a lot of mental pain and stress that way.
“If I have positions going against me, I get right out; if they are going for me, I keep them… Risk control is the most important thing in trading. If you have a losing position that is making you uncomfortable, the solution is very simple: Get out, because you can always get back in.”
#9 Paul Tudor Jones traded smaller during losing streaks.
“When I am trading poorly, I keep reducing my position size. That way, I will be trading my smallest position size when my trading is worst.“
#10 He looked for only the very best risk/reward trading opportunities.
“I look for opportunities with tremendously skewed reward-risk opportunities. Don’t ever let them get into your pocket – that means there’s no reason to leverage substantially. There’s no reason to take substantial amounts of financial risk ever, because you should always be able to find something where you can skew the reward risk relationship so greatly in your favor that you can take a variety of small investments with great reward risk opportunities that should give you minimum draw down pain and maximum upside opportunities”
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Like every so-called Superhero trader, or futureist, or whatever else...You just have to nail one big thing...and then you're a Legend.
You have established your Claim to Fame to run and brag off of.
I'm not saying this to discount him, but just saying. -- I'm sure he has, of course, had his run of losses or just bad luck in the market.
All the Greats in trading/investing (and maybe in the Guru education market as well)...have a certain Claim to fame they are known for.
My claim to fame, for example, is being able to turn a $500 paper trading account into $900 in one day, or one week.
But more importantly, it's 2018...Make Trading and Your Life Great Again...High-Five`
You have established your Claim to Fame to run and brag off of.
I'm not saying this to discount him, but just saying. -- I'm sure he has, of course, had his run of losses or just bad luck in the market.
All the Greats in trading/investing (and maybe in the Guru education market as well)...have a certain Claim to fame they are known for.
My claim to fame, for example, is being able to turn a $500 paper trading account into $900 in one day, or one week.
But more importantly, it's 2018...Make Trading and Your Life Great Again...High-Five`
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To call the increase in volatility of February at the beginning of January is pretty impressive, no? Not me, but MA. Apparently, the prediction now is a low in the mid 22k area for the Dow Jones in April.
To call the increase in volatility of February at the beginning of January is pretty impressive, no? Not me, but MA. Apparently, the prediction now is a low in the mid 22k area for the Dow Jones in April.
What is MA, and what is that a picture of?
For a "market crash" to occur, there needs to be a HUGE "changing of the mind". How do you predict when anyone/traders are going to "change their mind"?
IOW... anyone who caught the '87, crash was as much lucky as anything else. (That said, one of the desk brokers in our office had bought a large number of OTM puts... "got away with it"... banked >$1MM in profits.. and quit the business. Good for him!)
Still... a "market crash"... within a timeframe to be useful... is NOT predicable... any more than the "stopped clock, being right twice a day".
IOW... anyone who caught the '87, crash was as much lucky as anything else. (That said, one of the desk brokers in our office had bought a large number of OTM puts... "got away with it"... banked >$1MM in profits.. and quit the business. Good for him!)
Still... a "market crash"... within a timeframe to be useful... is NOT predicable... any more than the "stopped clock, being right twice a day".
MA, Martin Armstrong. Some say he is a fraud, and who knows, maybe he is. But I was following him since the beginning of the year and he was calling for a highly volatile February based on his computer's artificial intelligence which uses a database of cyclical information dating back thousands of years. I have been using it in trading as well.
The picture is an 'array', you can see how it works here: (keep in mind, that array is an older one, I have the updated one if anyone needs)
I don't know. I have only been following him this year. I did use the prediction to buy puts which I sold before the really big crash, for a measly 100%. (I wish I had known about how XIV worked...my heart is still in pain for the missed opportunity) It is possible to see through old posts on his blog. Some say he did, some say he didn't. But from what I have seen, the Socrates computer is generally accurate, most of the time. For example, the short term trading timing model called for a turn on 3/1 on the Dow Jones from the 4 day downtrend. It happened on 3/2. However, its support not hit on 3/1, so there was a small disparity. The next day was the actual low, and it was less than 100 points off its predicted support, on an intraday basis. It also called the 'Panic Cycle' reversal on 2/27 which was the beginning of that downtrend. It was all predicted on the beginning on 2/19.
