what are the signs of reversal vs pullback?

[Good1]

Seems to me you would have to master breakouts and reversals before you could define what is a pullback.

How far can you pull back from a breakout before it becomes a reversal?

The reversal, in turn, becomes the next breakout.

How far can you pull back from a long breakout before it becomes a short reversal, which is, itself, a short breakout?

How far can you pull back from a short breakout before it becomes a long breakout.

So you have to master breakouts.

To do that you just have to come up with a rule that defines what you will call a "breakout".

Then figure out how to sift through mountains of data in order to come up with statistics about the probabilities.

If you are not making a profit, then come up with another rule to define what is a breakout, and run the data all over again.

Once you can make a profit on this, then, and only then, could you then start to define what is a pullback.

Go ahead and define a pullback. Run the data. Look at the statistics which describe the probabilities.

If you don't like the statistics, come up with a new definition of a pullback and run the data again till you find something that beats your original profitability.

There would be no point in getting in "early" if it doesn't add profitability to your original rule about what is a breakout.

 

[anonymousse]

from my experience, if theres a break of a trendline, then retest for a new extreme already, a 'pullback' is more likely to be a reversal especially if in the context of a trading range. usually the last exhaustive push will be strong before price fades out

 

[maxinger]

How can we tell whether the market is going to continue or reverse direction?
In most cases, you can't tell.

 

[wxytrader]

Then figure out how to sift through mountains of data in order to come up with statistics about the probabilities.

The probabilities are already built into the Fibonacci sequence.

 

[Good1]

The probabilities are already built into the Fibonacci sequence.

Well to get a grip on the probabilities you still have to get through a mountain of data.

 

[SunTrader]

First off, don't get discouraged...it's not THIS forum, it's trading in general that attracts an unusually high amount of ego. So just accept it for what it is and Keep asking questions.

Second...you are being extremely Naive as to what it is you are getting yourself into. This isnt hobbyists discussing cars and computers...this is trying to take money from the most intelligent and competitive people in the world. Trading has to be one of, if not the hardest way to make money. People suffered through a tremendous amount to be profitable so don't expect to be spoon fed anything.

Third, Tim Sykes is one of the biggest jokes in the industry...made his money from pump and dump schemes coperring suckers exactly like you. So I would very much suggest you look elsewhere for guidance on how to trade. There are levels to this shit...and trading pennies with Sykes has to be the lowest one possible. So first check your ego and humbly accept any advice people give you here with grace and humility.

Excellent post.

 

[SunTrader]

They do if they're tried and true concepts.

Not worth debating.

 

[tomkat22]

Not worth debating.

Then why did you even bring it up?

 

[Wide Tailz]

"How can I know when to get in just before price breaks out?"
"Can you tell me how I can know when the price reverses at the exact top or the bottom?"
"Can you just give me a cheat sheet to get in just when the trend is starting?"

Ah, memories. The one dimensional trading cheat code. I studied buy signals from a Guru for several years (even backtested a few of them) and realized they were 50-50 unless triangulated with a few more factors.

And the best one was MAXIMUM PAIN!

Get in after the disaster!

 

[zghorner]

@mute9003 the issue i had with pennies is you always feel late to the game and are almost always buying the top and holding the bag...praying for the next pump to get out. stocktwits is swarming with penny stock bagholders pumping their bag day in and day out...one of the saddest things you'll ever see. So logically I thought, "im just going to short when they pump...basically inverse stock twits poor people"...but of course it is almost impossible to short due to hard to borrow shares...and they don't dump hard every time so if are able to borrow, you still get burned from time to time.

pennies are just horrible for most people. The companies are penny stocks FOR A REASON, so long term outlook is a pure gamble and typically a losing bet. for intraday, When they are moving they move FAST and new traders typically have shit execution and shit discipline...and get burned hard.

Take a hard look at your motives. Pennies attract "get rich quick" dreamers like a moth to a flame. I am the most guilty.