what are the signs of reversal vs pullback?

[mute9003]

Is that really different from 5-15 dollar range?
Those are traded by so many scalpers that cause even faster selloffs than penny stocks
I trade penny stocks but at the same time i closely watch the "meat of the move" stocks
The ones that ross cameron and literally every youtube scalper trades.
And every day i see much faster and much more "surprise buttseks" downward spirals on those.
i rarely see pennystocks move that fast downward.

they all follow same strategy. They all sell at exactly same time with market orders
I watch warrior trading and few other recaps every day.
And tried trading those 5-15 dollar stocks.
And got fucked by scalpers quicker than penny stocks.


I expect a penny stock to pump and dump.
Im also aware what they are.
I have no delusions about penny stocks

The reason i keep asking same questions is because some people's big ego here blocks them from reading the actual question and they keep posting the answer i to questions i didnt even ask.
Andnthen get butthurt because they feel like im not reading what they posted.
you can be a good trader and know your shit, that doesnt mean you are a good teacher and understand how to pass on your knowlege to others

 

[PPC]

When i was on car forums or computer forums i would answer people's questions repeatedly
Because to me something might be easy to understand while to someone else it might not make sense because he doesnt have all the parts to understand the concept.
But this forum seems to be mostly to boost your own egos by pointing out how you know so much about trading and noobs like me asking stupid questions all the time.

But that was during times when people on forums actually helped others about 20 years ago or more.
Im sure this forum was luke that in the past (most forums were, before helpful members left and forums died eventually or became useless)

The problem with you on this forum is akin to you asking “what should I do when the oil warning light comes on in my car ???”

We tell you to remove the engine-oil cap on the top of the engine, then to insert a funnel and pour in the oil in small amounts, periodically checking the level using the dipstick.

But what do you do ??? You to remove the engine-oil cap and then you ignore everyone and you start pouring frigging sand into the engine instead of oil, and then you have the audacity to come back accusing us!

Over the last few months, you have been given solid advice in some of the replies. Unfortunately, you seem to have some serious issues, and it’s a waste of our time replying to you.

I’m sorry for being so blunt. You need to start taking responsibility for your behavior because behaviors have consequences and produce results. It is impossible to become a trader until you start taking full responsibility for your results.

 

[zghorner]

Is that really different from 5-15 dollar range?
Those are traded by so many scalpers that cause even faster selloffs than penny stocks
I trade penny stocks but at the same time i closely watch the "meat of the move" stocks
The ones that ross cameron and literally every youtube scalper trades.
And every day i see much faster and much more "surprise buttseks" downward spirals on those.
i rarely see pennystocks move that fast downward.

they all follow same strategy. They all sell at exactly same time with market orders
I watch warrior trading and few other recaps every day.
And tried trading those 5-15 dollar stocks.
And got fucked by scalpers quicker than penny stocks.


I expect a penny stock to pump and dump.
Im also aware what they are.
I have no delusions about penny stocks

The reason i keep asking same questions is because some people's big ego here blocks them from reading the actual question and they keep posting the answer i to questions i didnt even ask.
Andnthen get butthurt because they feel like im not reading what they posted.
you can be a good trader and know your shit, that doesnt mean you are a good teacher and understand how to pass on your knowlege to others

alright, fair enough. I'll do my best to answer.

IMO, based on my experience, the only one who can answer your question is you. And the only way for you to find it is with work. Learning basic price action and becoming familiar with the instruments you are trading.

@wxytrader gave you a good tip and place to start. Look into fibs for clues on retracement vs reversal. A good back test would be: Identify previous moves that would trigger your entry -> apply fib sequence -> what is average retracement level it hits before resuming direction? if it his "X" level it is far more likely to be a reversal than a simple retracement...are you better off entering on initial momentum or waiting for first pullback? etc... Basic analysis to give you familiarity and confidence in your execution. Then the most simple price action on top of that...are you seeing higher lows/highs? did price break support/resistance? how far does price typically move beyond S/R before reversing and trapping traders in a false breakout? etc...

after that, trade it in sim and track your performance with MAE, MFE & ETD. This will help you identify and fine tune your strategy. If you have a high MAE (maximum adverse excursion), then your entry is poor...and you can look for better signals to enter either sooner or later to lower that metric. If your average MFE (maximum favorable excursion...opposite of MAE) is high then we can at least say your entries are good because the trade potential was high...if it is low, then obviously your entries are trash. If your ETD (end trade drawdown...how far price moves away from MFE/how much you give back to the market before exiting), is really high...perhaps you are too greedy and need to lower profit target, etc...then you can adjust your profit target and analyze what takes place at the MFE to help identify exit signals.

I usually refrain from giving advice because i am a net losing trader. but in your case maybe it will help, idk. good luck.

 

[schizo]

The reason i keep asking same questions is because some people's big ego here blocks them from reading the actual question and they keep posting the answer i to questions i didnt even ask.
Andnthen get butthurt because they feel like im not reading what they posted.

Good grief, I'm gonna flip this and shoot right back at ya, word for word:

The reason they keep replying the same answer is because your big ego blocks you from seeing (understanding) the answer and you keep posting the same question that they've already answered.

And then YOU get butthurt because you feel like they're not reading your post.

(The problem ain't with the response. It's your attitude. Like I previously stated, you come here with preconceived notions. So you only want to see and read contents that agree to your presuppositions.)

 

[schizo]

Since I've been pretty negative in my earlier responses, allow me to make it up by throwing you something you can chew on.

Reversal and pullbacks have a lot in common but their behavior has more to do with the trend strength. Think about this for a moment. There are many types of trend, mostly in terms of strength. A big secular trend, for example, is like a huge shipping cargo. A cargo can carry a lot of weight but it's not very agile, so it's not easy to maneuver and it takes a long time to turn it around. Now compare this to a small speed boat. This light vessel can criss-cross the current at will with ease and it can turn around and around without any problem.

Full trend reversals are like a cargo ship while pullbacks are like a speed boat. When you look at a chart, you will see that there are many pullbacks but there aren't that many major reversals. You will often see smaller trend reversals within a larger reversal. They all interact with one another. Your job as a trader will then be to analyze where in the major trend you are and forecast the next smaller trend.

 

[panzerman]

One article I've found very helpful is "Whiter is Brighter", by John Ehlers. Essentially modeling price as pink noise, and then whitening the price data to make all "frequencies" (i.e. trend periods) have the same spectral energy density, just choose your favorite time period! Longer trending data doesn't distort shorter trends.

 

[SunTrader]

I'll stick with price ... itself.

 

[Sekiyo]

Price is King

In the market’s sway, where traders vie,
One truth reigns under every sky:
It’s not the charts, nor news you bring,
But price alone that wears the king's ring.

Indicators flash, with signals bold,
They tempt the mind, they lure the bold,
Yet all their worth can quickly fade,
For price dictates the moves they’ve made.

News breaks fast, the headlines churn,
But it’s in price where traders learn,
The whispers of the crowd’s desire,
A silent flame, a trading fire.

For price reflects the fears and dreams,
Of countless souls and market schemes,
It’s there the bulls and bears unite,
To wage their war in daily fight.

No fibs or lines, nor bands so tight,
Can rival price’s guiding light,
For in its flow, truth lies clear,
The path ahead, both far and near.

So heed the charts, and study well,
The tools and trends that traders tell,
But never stray, nor doubt this thing:
When trading wise, price is king.

The Ladder's Tale

On the ladder’s rungs, the numbers climb,
A story told in ticks of time.
Each bid and ask, a voice, a sway,
Reveals the dance of price at play.

Watch the buyers as they rise,
Their bids like steps that seek the skies.
If they’re strong and hold their ground,
The price may surge without a sound.

But if the sellers start to fall,
Their asks descending, one and all,
The pressure mounts, the tide may turn,
And price will drop as sellers yearn.

In every move, a subtle cue,
A shift in power, old and new.
For on this ladder, truth is shown:
The balance tips, the market's tone.

So study well each step and trace,
The hidden battle, pace by pace.
For in the ladder’s steady climb,
Price action speaks, clear and prime.

The Chart's Illusion

The chart may glow with lines so neat,
A tale of highs and lows complete.
Yet in its curves and colors bright,
Lies a falsehood, veiled from sight.

It shows the past, a story told,
But future paths it can't unfold.
We trace the trends, we plot the way,
Yet miss the moves that change today.

Indicators stacked, a crowded screen,
But truth in price remains unseen.
For charts can lie, with lags and gloss,
A polished tale, but at a loss.

So trust not charts with blind belief,
Their beauty hides the market's grief.
Price is the pulse, the beating heart,
While charts, they fade, a lesser art.

- ChatGPT

 

[schizo]

Price is King

In the market’s sway, where traders vie,
One truth reigns under every sky:
It’s not the charts, nor news you bring,
But price alone that wears the king's ring.

Indicators flash, with signals bold,
They tempt the mind, they lure the bold,
Yet all their worth can quickly fade,
For price dictates the moves they’ve made.

News breaks fast, the headlines churn,
But it’s in price where traders learn,
The whispers of the crowd’s desire,
A silent flame, a trading fire.

For price reflects the fears and dreams,
Of countless souls and market schemes,
It’s there the bulls and bears unite,
To wage their war in daily fight.

No fibs or lines, nor bands so tight,
Can rival price’s guiding light,
For in its flow, truth lies clear,
The path ahead, both far and near.

So heed the charts, and study well,
The tools and trends that traders tell,
But never stray, nor doubt this thing:
When trading wise, price is king.

The Ladder's Tale

On the ladder’s rungs, the numbers climb,
A story told in ticks of time.
Each bid and ask, a voice, a sway,
Reveals the dance of price at play.

Watch the buyers as they rise,
Their bids like steps that seek the skies.
If they’re strong and hold their ground,
The price may surge without a sound.

But if the sellers start to fall,
Their asks descending, one and all,
The pressure mounts, the tide may turn,
And price will drop as sellers yearn.

In every move, a subtle cue,
A shift in power, old and new.
For on this ladder, truth is shown:
The balance tips, the market's tone.

So study well each step and trace,
The hidden battle, pace by pace.
For in the ladder’s steady climb,
Price action speaks, clear and prime.

The Chart's Illusion

The chart may glow with lines so neat,
A tale of highs and lows complete.
Yet in its curves and colors bright,
Lies a falsehood, veiled from sight.

It shows the past, a story told,
But future paths it can't unfold.
We trace the trends, we plot the way,
Yet miss the moves that change today.

Indicators stacked, a crowded screen,
But truth in price remains unseen.
For charts can lie, with lags and gloss,
A polished tale, but at a loss.

So trust not charts with blind belief,
Their beauty hides the market's grief.
Price is the pulse, the beating heart,
While charts, they fade, a lesser art.

- ChatGPT

That ChatGPT is one chatterbox

 

[Good1]

How can we tell whether the market is going to continue or reverse direction?
In most cases, you can't tell.

View attachment 347709

You can't tell, but you can have a rule that keeps you in the market, long or short, no matter what happens. In the upper example, you could be long from the line where price "breaks out" of the prior high. In the lower example you could be short where price continues to make lower lows. Then you can run this on a mountain of data and see if it profits on probabilities. If it does, then you can make up more rules to see if you can improve on the efficiency of performance.