What are the chances and possible timing of a China crackdown in HK and how can we trade it?

Sig said:
I think the only person who hasn't actually tried to address the original subject on this thread is @nooby_mcnoob, actually. He/she/it projects a lot.

I'm curious if there are any second order impacts beyond the obvious of shorting the index, i.e. industries or sectors that are to some extent dependent on a mostly autonomous Hong Kong?
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The obvious are the equity index and the HKD. There are also HK bonds but I have no idea what impact a crackdown would have on them. The Chinese yuan and equity indexes should also be effected. I think there would be a chilling effect on Taiwan markets as well.

As for specific sectors, that's a great question. I don't know.
 
lentus said:
The obvious are the equity index and the HKD. There are also HK bonds but I have no idea what impact a crackdown would have on them. The Chinese yuan and equity indexes should also be effected. I think there would be a chilling effect on Taiwan markets as well.

As for specific sectors, that's a great question. I don't know.
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The Taiwan angle is interesting. I know that there's been some noise there lately over F-16 sales, so maybe that ends up where the line in the sand is drawn.
 
Sig said:
The Taiwan angle is interesting. I know that there's been some noise there lately over F-16 sales, so maybe that ends up where the line in the sand is drawn.
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Well, whether it has any real effect is almost irrelevant. What matters is I know for a fact that the Taiwanese are peeing their pants right now. And upon a crackdown... showtime in their markets!
 
No crack down going to happen, the movement will die slowly and steadily. Sad but it will be the fate when no one want to show their face.
 
yc47ib said:
No crack down going to happen, the movement will die slowly and steadily. Sad but it will be the fate when no one want to show their face.
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Interesting view but I see no signs of dying, only accelerating now.
 
Sig said:
The Taiwan angle is interesting. I know that there's been some noise there lately over F-16 sales, so maybe that ends up where the line in the sand is drawn.
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Current Taiwan ruling party is jumping up and down in joy. The HK situation turned the tide on their effort to stay in power. Won't surprise me if they support the HK protest behind the scene.
 
If history is an indicator of a likely outcome not much of an impact will occur. At any point in time the PLA (People's Liberation Army) Will put an immediate halt to the protest. Global market already has new issues to deal with.
As far as the F-16 sales to Taiwan, China could care less and probably is looking for a loan repayment from the US, after making a good sale. I have been watching agrcultural commodity prices for a spike, to indicate an imminent event .None so far. Time from the perspective of the Han Empire is much longer than the Western Cultures. Go long the USD/RUB weekly rolls are good.
 
AKUMATOTENSHI said:
If history is an indicator of a likely outcome not much of an impact will occur. At any point in time the PLA (People's Liberation Army) Will put an immediate halt to the protest. Global market already has new issues to deal with.
As far as the F-16 sales to Taiwan, China could care less and probably is looking for a loan repayment from the US, after making a good sale. I have been watching agrcultural commodity prices for a spike, to indicate an imminent event .None so far. Time from the perspective of the Han Empire is much longer than the Western Cultures. Go long the USD/RUB weekly rolls are good.
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Am I allowed to say the above is almost complete nonsense?
 
I think China won't do it unless they exhaust all other options. There is a high cost to the crackdown. And there is a chance they'll back down and won't do it too.
 
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