What are the chances and possible timing of a China crackdown in HK and how can we trade it?

[nooby_mcnoob]

Just want to say I don't disagree that Sig has the right idea about why that isn't a problem. Historically, the USG has suppressed many-a-rebellion. All that means is that rebellions are common. The main question is whether those rebellions lead to a change. And conceptually, it makes sense in a majority-rules democracy like we mostly have in the US.

Maybe 150 years of insurgency training has insight into that?

 

[Sig]

In a democratic society, there is a non zero chance that those MAGA, those @nooby_mcnoob get elected to run this country.

Come to think of it.....

Yep, and that's the difference really. I would really have preferred Trump wasn't elected. When he was elected, I didn't run around talking about violent overthrow of the government via my firearms, instead I'm peacefully working within our democratic system for a change. That's what separates you and I from @nooby_mcnoob and his ilk; that and obviously a bunch of life experience and some reading comprehension abilities, with some additional mental stability thrown in as well.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

You moron, the discussion was about the (present or eventual) violent suppression of protests in Hong Kong, not the United States.

 

[ironchef]

Yep, and that's the difference really. I would really have preferred Trump wasn't elected. When he was elected, I didn't run around talking about violent overthrow of the government via my firearms, instead I'm peacefully working within our democratic system for a change. That's what separates you and I from @nooby_mcnoob and his ilk; that and obviously a bunch of life experience and some reading comprehension abilities, with some additional mental stability thrown in as well.

Appreciate you gave me credit. I didn't vote for Trump but actually agree with his trade policies. What is great with democracy is we can agree to disagree without getting into physical fights.

 

[luisHK]

Spoken like someone who has no fucking clue what a squad of Marines with a SAW could do to any number of survivalist gun freaks, let alone a full infantry division with close air support. I've got news for you my friend, it's not a bunch of rambo wannabies compensating for their small dicks with their bump stocks that is keeping us a democracy in the U.S.

Yes my impression as well, i can understand some arguments in favour of individual gun rights, but the idea of individuals fighting the US government with weapons sound ludicrous.
And there s little doubt so many guns in circulation got US a particularly violent policing.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

Hong.

Kong.

Mo.

Rons.

Unfollowing thread.

 

[Sig]

Yes my impression as well, i can understand some arguments in favour of individual gun rights, but the idea of individuals fighting the US government with weapons sound ludicrous.
And there s little doubt so many guns in circulation got US a particularly violent policing.

I'm actually curious to hear your opinion on the original topic given your familiarity with Hong Kong?

 

[luisHK]

I'm actually curious to hear your opinion on the original topic given your familiarity with Hong Kong?

Well, I m very happily far from there now, but would think there is plenty of downside in case of chinese military intervention in HK, at least short term.
I used to live 3 miles from where the military is nowstationned in Shenzhen, they just have to cross the bridge to enter HK, but don't have much of an opinion on the oddsofit happening.
Besides I feel for the Hongkies, but they do look screwed, military repression or not. The kind of BS pulled out year long by Beijing is palatable only to those who have been force fed their propaganda since youth, and probably those who rack in big $ thanks to China, quite a few of those in Hk

 

[lentus]

You moron, the discussion was about the (present or eventual) violent suppression of protests in Hong Kong, not the United States.

umm, yeah. can we get back to that please?

 

[Sig]

umm, yeah. can we get back to that please?

I think the only person who hasn't actually tried to address the original subject on this thread is @nooby_mcnoob, actually. He/she/it projects a lot.

I'm curious if there are any second order impacts beyond the obvious of shorting the index, i.e. industries or sectors that are to some extent dependent on a mostly autonomous Hong Kong?