Weinstein Trading and Fading
- Thread starter Robert Weinstein
- Start date
Good luck with your BP trade, I was able to switch all my naked puts to China oil plays and ones that pay big dividends. Thankfully, got out of DO before it went down another 7 points.
Reason I got out of DO even though its not being sued is the President said he is issuing a 6 month freeze on deep water oil drilling.
BP seems cheap now, but the President is telling them to stop paying their dividend until they pay for the clean up plus there is now a criminal probe against BP. I just don't think these items are yet baked into the price and you have people who are still not ready to sell at a loss yet, but maybe today was the panic.
Obviously, if this thing they tried mostly stops the leak, then we could see a nice bounce on their stock.
Reason I got out of DO even though its not being sued is the President said he is issuing a 6 month freeze on deep water oil drilling.
BP seems cheap now, but the President is telling them to stop paying their dividend until they pay for the clean up plus there is now a criminal probe against BP. I just don't think these items are yet baked into the price and you have people who are still not ready to sell at a loss yet, but maybe today was the panic.
Obviously, if this thing they tried mostly stops the leak, then we could see a nice bounce on their stock.
i got the condo at a HUGE discounted px..New York is still the most exciting city in America .. the wall street. the broadway shows, the fashion, the restaurant and the people are quite amazing.
i will only invest in a farm land unless i think an olympics stadium or disneyland or some major projects are planning to develop the farm land..
or when i'm retired, buy a farm land to become a farmer, grow organic veggies and fruits ... and also animals farm.
The Horrible Memories of the Nanking Massacre and also WWII are still "Fresh" in everybody mind. But after few generations... the "new generation" will not bear "the painful scars" anymore...
eg: do we still hate the German or Japanese for "their elders" involvement in the WWII? Most will answer No! We love to buy German and Japan products and we have German and Japanese friends.
In the internet chat etc, some people always love to see a real war between countries.. my advice is please volunteer themselves or volunteer their sons to fight in the front-line in a real war because they love war so much.
We're just ordinary people who love "Peace"..
Qin shi Huang, Mao, Napolean, Alexander the Great or Achilles.. all the Great Warriors.. WWI, WWII, Vietnam War & Gulf War... People love to have war... Many, many Young Men Died, the parents/wives/ children losing their beloved sons/husbands/fathers all because of war ..
Quote from NoDoji:
I think it's time for you to transition to the oil itself, Bob. Price has been moving about as fast as the gusher, more bang for your buck.
At any time I think I have an edge I will trade it like I have before. Oil has been good for me unlike some other futures....
Glad to hear you avoided the DO landmine.
I agree BP is getting cheap in this area due to the panic factor. The market really doesn't enjoy bad news and anyone who jumped into BP to soon has been crushed at least on paper. Those that held through from April I am not sure what to say beyond wow.
Obama can jawbone all he wants and that will have very little impact on the dividend IMHO. He is trying his best not to look stupid and to keep the spotlight on BP and do the Washington two-step. I think he should worry more about the finances of America more and BP less but that's another trade as well....LOL
I would have sold more puts today but the IV just totally imploded and there just is not a lot of premium willing to be paid so I will either wait to see if another shoe drops and the IV goes up again or start looking more at the back months with covered calls to get some dividend premium at the lower capital gains rate.
Maybe not this week but by next week I think we start to see the light at the end of the tunnel and with any luck it will not be an oncoming train. I am looking to see BP above 40 again by the end of August regardless of what the price does between then and now barring some other major problem. In the mean time I will trade it long and short just like I did today while maintaining a core long with a focus on this fall.
China leadership is largely from the Shanghai area and while I agree time will take the problem away those in power currently either remember it first hand or have relatives that experienced it.
What does this really mean? There will be no love lost when China becomes the dominant regional power. To be clear I am more focused on economic power rather than military. Any impression given that China may attack Japan any time soon was not what I meant at all. Gaining control of natural resources around the world is a whole different thing on the other hand.
I was kicked around today by BP
I carried over some BP that was in the green by a small amount and woke up today to see the stock had fallen around 90 cents which seemed out of place. I bought some more and as BP moved higher I was in the green again but with larger size and I only covered a couple hundred shares. I drove to work and found that the price had moved back down again which again seemed odd. The recovery is going well or so I thought. It appears that while it is going well BP management didnât see fit to have an extra stand by processing ship. BP has maxed out the processing capacity of the recovery ship. WTF are they thinking?? Why is there not an extra ship and a backup ship in case of a problem? It is no wonder the stock price is down. How can anyone have confidence in management when they are in the fix they are in and yet they do not yet understand that they need multiple backups as time is of the essence here. Another idea is to use the manifold on the bottom that was used to try to do the top kill in reverse and recover oil this way. Sounds like a great idea why is it not already done? Why in this Sh*t storm are they not able to multitask? I would surely not want to go into battle with the management of BP as the leading officers.
First they get the pipe cutter stuck which makes little sense. If your going to cut a pipe like that why not move the saw to different degrees of the pipe as you make progress thereby weakening the metal and allowing for flex? Why not insert material like a funnel into the main pipe to restrict the flow of oil as much as possible BEFORE reaching the top hat? This has been going on for over a month and I understand that there are unique problems in dealing with this situation but this is their job and they have a bottomless pit of money to work with. There is no reason for this spill to be still going on other than lack of management.
Getting back to the other ship on the way. Is there really only two ships in the world that can do this and one was busy? What if in the course of flaring the nat gas a ship fire breaks out or for any other reason? If that ship has any problem it would appear that BP goes back to dumping the full load into the gulf again.
Also why is the federal government not helping out more with this? With the current defense budget as bloated as it is they do not have equipment that can be useful?
Once again going back to the processing ship. If the ship is maxed out with processing can they not burn off some of the recovered oil so that it is burned instead of released into the gulf. I understand that burning is not as good as capturing but since it is better than letting it be released into the water it would appear that setting up a recovery as part of or separate to the ongoing top hat that just burned it off would be better.
Regardless of if my ideas can work or would actually be better than anything they are doing now there is no reason for any more delays. Delays can only mean lack of leadership as this has been going on long enough that everything and I mean everything should be on site that could be needed
I am still long BP stock although I traded it back and forth all day with the goal of lowering the average to the point that if it moved higher I could take a gain. The best I did was about two hours into the day I could have closed out with about a $3K loss. Obviously much better than my current seat and even with my frustration I think this mess will not be as bad as the price of the stock is pricing in despite the best efforts of management to screw up every single painful step of the way. After today I am about even with my trading with BP or maybe down as much as about $1K. I guess that is not bad considering I have mostly been long this stock and how poorly this leak is being handled in relation to how I thought they would grab it and get it taken care of.
Today was my largest drawdown in months so while it was painful at least I have gained a lot more consistency.
BP â 5229 Still long with some covered with July options. Again I want to stay long and hold for over 60 days as well as capture a dividend and hopefully some nice gains when the leak gets under control.
DG + 9 based on earnings. closed it out only because I did not want to remove my focus from BP
TIVO â 58 stopped out news
- 5278
I carried over some BP that was in the green by a small amount and woke up today to see the stock had fallen around 90 cents which seemed out of place. I bought some more and as BP moved higher I was in the green again but with larger size and I only covered a couple hundred shares. I drove to work and found that the price had moved back down again which again seemed odd. The recovery is going well or so I thought. It appears that while it is going well BP management didnât see fit to have an extra stand by processing ship. BP has maxed out the processing capacity of the recovery ship. WTF are they thinking?? Why is there not an extra ship and a backup ship in case of a problem? It is no wonder the stock price is down. How can anyone have confidence in management when they are in the fix they are in and yet they do not yet understand that they need multiple backups as time is of the essence here. Another idea is to use the manifold on the bottom that was used to try to do the top kill in reverse and recover oil this way. Sounds like a great idea why is it not already done? Why in this Sh*t storm are they not able to multitask? I would surely not want to go into battle with the management of BP as the leading officers.
First they get the pipe cutter stuck which makes little sense. If your going to cut a pipe like that why not move the saw to different degrees of the pipe as you make progress thereby weakening the metal and allowing for flex? Why not insert material like a funnel into the main pipe to restrict the flow of oil as much as possible BEFORE reaching the top hat? This has been going on for over a month and I understand that there are unique problems in dealing with this situation but this is their job and they have a bottomless pit of money to work with. There is no reason for this spill to be still going on other than lack of management.
Getting back to the other ship on the way. Is there really only two ships in the world that can do this and one was busy? What if in the course of flaring the nat gas a ship fire breaks out or for any other reason? If that ship has any problem it would appear that BP goes back to dumping the full load into the gulf again.
Also why is the federal government not helping out more with this? With the current defense budget as bloated as it is they do not have equipment that can be useful?
Once again going back to the processing ship. If the ship is maxed out with processing can they not burn off some of the recovered oil so that it is burned instead of released into the gulf. I understand that burning is not as good as capturing but since it is better than letting it be released into the water it would appear that setting up a recovery as part of or separate to the ongoing top hat that just burned it off would be better.
Regardless of if my ideas can work or would actually be better than anything they are doing now there is no reason for any more delays. Delays can only mean lack of leadership as this has been going on long enough that everything and I mean everything should be on site that could be needed
I am still long BP stock although I traded it back and forth all day with the goal of lowering the average to the point that if it moved higher I could take a gain. The best I did was about two hours into the day I could have closed out with about a $3K loss. Obviously much better than my current seat and even with my frustration I think this mess will not be as bad as the price of the stock is pricing in despite the best efforts of management to screw up every single painful step of the way. After today I am about even with my trading with BP or maybe down as much as about $1K. I guess that is not bad considering I have mostly been long this stock and how poorly this leak is being handled in relation to how I thought they would grab it and get it taken care of.
Today was my largest drawdown in months so while it was painful at least I have gained a lot more consistency.
BP â 5229 Still long with some covered with July options. Again I want to stay long and hold for over 60 days as well as capture a dividend and hopefully some nice gains when the leak gets under control.
DG + 9 based on earnings. closed it out only because I did not want to remove my focus from BP
TIVO â 58 stopped out news
- 5278
I have no expertise in the oil biz but i do know when Pemex had their Ixtoc oil spill in 1979 it took them 10 months to cap it. And that was only in 150 feet of water. I don't expect any good news on the spill anytime soon but that may be already factored in to BP's price. Good luck.