Weinstein Trading and Fading

[~~~]

Quote from Robert Weinstein:



I should probably stick to real estate as it has always been good to me but I have to admit I love trading more.

invest real estate in the states i bought the condo in NYC because it's a "steal" (dirt-cheap) US debt just tops $13 trillion and it's going up & up..if this dangerous & unsustainable level of debt continues ... bankrupting the country is just right at the corner:eek: hopefully it won't happen but cheers now as the market is up.. better take out some profit and "save" it in Asia.)

 

[~~~]

Quote from Retief:

Yeah, like in phucking China, because real estate is going up, up, and up in Asia, just like it did in Japan in the 1980's, and that turned out so well for everyone in Japan.

Children in Japan are NOT Burdened by $13trillion worth of debt.:eek:

Smart Investment is to know when/where to "buy" and when to "sell/let go" ..

anyway.. Why So Mad at China?? mad at them for being hard-working? or exporting too much? or buying lots of "debt/junk papers"?? ... the U.S will be in "Great Depression" still .. more are losing their jobs and homes ..if no one/country is buying those debt/junk..

 

[Robert Weinstein]

It was all BP today

I woke up and already had covered my small carry over from yesterday and it was very near the high of the whole day so I was happy about that. As I drove to work I decided that I would close DBD out as quickly as I could and move on. Thats what I did and I didn’t get the best of pricing but I am happy to move on from that losing deal.
I traded BP with both put options and the stock and went short the stock a few times but mostly was long. I did cover when the CEO went on to speak as the price shot up with the expectation and I could see by the video feeds that we were not close in being done. All in all a good day and if it wasn’t for little league baseball with my boys I would not leave my trading station until close of after hours trading. I am still short naked puts and with any luck things won’t get bad or at least not until tomorrow sometime after the bell. The IV is at monster levels and I felt it was better to short the puts than to buy the stock into this. I figure the stock is going to trade somewhere in the 43-45 range at some point tomorrow if progress is made which could be any time.
BP + 1605
BP Jun35P + 169
BP Oct 25P + 53
DBD – 1015
LVS + 17
RIG + 90

+ 920

 

[Robert Weinstein]

Hi Oracle,

Seems I missed your post. I have been way to busy with BP and not getting enough sleep that is for sure.

I think your right that BP has many unknowns but I also think that is what can make it a good stock to trade as it has a high emotional value to it. High emotional value generally means profits for guys like me who fade moves and this is the "mother of all moves" well at least for this month.....

BP continues to be profitable for me but of course what is good today can turn real ugly real quick. As I write this I have four video feeds of oil coming out of the top hat or whatever they are calling the condom they are trying to put on this thing....

Best to you

Robert

Quote from oraclewizard77:

I think its easier to go long a similar stock that does not have exposure of unknown lawsuits like BP. For example, DO which is an off shore driller fell over 35% from its 52 week high even though it has nothing to do with the current mess. Now instead of just going long the stock, I sold naked puts which even after this fall, have yet to go to the price where I will need to actually own the stock, which I do not mind owning if I do get assigned at that price. Until we know what BP will have to pay, how can we actually value the stock enough to go long.

This leads me to my other thought. Due to the market falling, most of my stocks that I am long, have fallen, the ones I consider to be good speculations of massive profits in the future, and some which I consider to be just swing trades. So what I did strategically, was kill the ones that were just swing trades even though I think in time I will be proven right, to add more to the ones which have extreme possible reward in the near future.

So, what I am saying, is that it may be wise to look at your current longer term positions, and see which still make sense, and do you wish to change your allocations for each position, and/or move some to a new position. Since all stocks being down, I don't really feel that taking a loss on weaker positions is a bad idea, if the money can be allocated to stronger positions.

Also, I have noticed I made a few mistakes with a stocks in a bad sector being utility non dividend paying stocks including some alternative energy. I have decided although I do think these stocks are oversold, the problem is that the sector itself is weak, and I feel that the sector is being sold so all stocks are being killed. Therefore I have decided to get out of this sector for now due to this problem. I think for trading stocks even technically, it may be wise to look at a sector. I don't know if you scan for sectors or just stocks.

 

[Robert Weinstein]

Quote from NoDoji:

I once read a book that listed "day trader" and "real estate agent" as the number one and two jobs with highest attrition rate

Funny how I would pick those two as my favorite things to do to try to make a buck.

 

[Robert Weinstein]

Quote from ~~~:

invest real estate in the states i bought the condo in NYC because it's a "steal" (dirt-cheap) US debt just tops $13 trillion and it's going up & up..if this dangerous & unsustainable level of debt continues ... bankrupting the country is just right at the corner:eek: hopefully it won't happen but cheers now as the market is up.. better take out some profit and "save" it in Asia.)

I am unsure what the condo cost but if you were to ask me I would have said farm land that is or could be rented out would be a better choice. NYC is one black swan away from becoming cheap to the point that you may be dreaming of getting what you paid for your condo out of it. Talk about a tax hell. plus the finance jobs are not going to be needed there nearly like they were 20 years ago as trading can be done from anywhere now.

 

[Robert Weinstein]

Quote from ~~~:

Children in Japan are NOT Burdened by $13trillion worth of debt.:eek:

Smart Investment is to know when/where to "buy" and when to "sell/let go" ..

anyway.. Why So Mad at China?? mad at them for being hard-working? or exporting too much? or buying lots of "debt/junk papers"?? ... the U.S will be in "Great Depression" still .. more are losing their jobs and homes ..if no one/country is buying those debt/junk..

I dont see the original post (maybe deleted) but I think you have a mistake in your reply.

Japan has a huge debt load with an upside down triangle of population age groups and is an island nation with little natural resources. Just for fun they have N. Korea (no real worry there) but they have this big ass dragon called the Middle Kingdom and Nanjin is still very fresh in their memory. Payback is a bitch and it is no wonder why the last in a series of Japanese Prime Ministers didn't require the US Marines to exit Okinawa.

Anyone reading this post that doesn't understand the importance of Japan, China, and Nanjing better get reading their Asian History because it will explain a lot of what is to come.....

 

[Retief]

The Russians aren't very nice either, have nuclear weapons, and still occupy part of Japan (the Kurile Islands).

 

[Robert Weinstein]

Quote from Retief:

The Russians aren't very nice either, have nuclear weapons, and still occupy part of Japan (the Kurile Islands).

Thats true although I would guess that Russia may just leave that mess alone and not do something stupid (Unlike a North American country that I can think of that likes to get involved with everything)

 

[Robert Weinstein]

Another BP kinda day

I will admit that watching video feeds from the bottom of the gulf gets old after a while. I wish that some online news service had continuous updates like a CNN or something like that. Even if they had to repeat every hour or two it sure would help take away some of the unknown and keep the information correct instead of some of the guessing made by those that have nothing to back up their statements. BP appears to be dropping the PR ball so far but perhaps they will be able to pull it together soon.

Right about the time GS peaked I covered the put I wrote and I through another offer out there at a higher price with the thought that GS would retrace based on the rest of the market. It did and I ended up shorting the put again at a superior price.

I shorted a couple hundred shares of ATLS at 33.64 but a look at the chart will clearly show a lot was left on the table. I did cover half with the thought of reshorting and trading it higher if it moved higher but as it turns out I hit the top and I did not want to be aggressive as my attention was focused on trading BP.

With BP I have a very large long bias but I did trade the stock both long and short through the day but on a day like today with a long bias it was hard to make money. I did add to my naked puts with BP and so if the latest idea fails over the weekend I can plan on being the proud owner of a lot of shares of BP which I would be ok with as it appears things must get worse before we see the price of the stock go lower and stay lower from my opinion.

ATLS + 62
BP + 218
GS Jun 130P + 17

+ 298