Weinstein Trading and Fading

cap the leak, not the stock price.

Quote from Robert Weinstein:

I was kicked around today by BP

I carried over some BP that was in the green by a small amount and woke up today to see the stock had fallen around 90 cents which seemed out of place. I bought some more and as BP moved higher I was in the green again but with larger size and I only covered a couple hundred shares. I drove to work and found that the price had moved back down again which again seemed odd. The recovery is going well or so I thought. It appears that while it is going well BP management didn’t see fit to have an extra stand by processing ship. BP has maxed out the processing capacity of the recovery ship. WTF are they thinking?? Why is there not an extra ship and a backup ship in case of a problem? It is no wonder the stock price is down. How can anyone have confidence in management when they are in the fix they are in and yet they do not yet understand that they need multiple backups as time is of the essence here. Another idea is to use the manifold on the bottom that was used to try to do the top kill in reverse and recover oil this way. Sounds like a great idea why is it not already done? Why in this Sh*t storm are they not able to multitask? I would surely not want to go into battle with the management of BP as the leading officers.

First they get the pipe cutter stuck which makes little sense. If your going to cut a pipe like that why not move the saw to different degrees of the pipe as you make progress thereby weakening the metal and allowing for flex? Why not insert material like a funnel into the main pipe to restrict the flow of oil as much as possible BEFORE reaching the top hat? This has been going on for over a month and I understand that there are unique problems in dealing with this situation but this is their job and they have a bottomless pit of money to work with. There is no reason for this spill to be still going on other than lack of management.

Getting back to the other ship on the way. Is there really only two ships in the world that can do this and one was busy? What if in the course of flaring the nat gas a ship fire breaks out or for any other reason? If that ship has any problem it would appear that BP goes back to dumping the full load into the gulf again.

Also why is the federal government not helping out more with this? With the current defense budget as bloated as it is they do not have equipment that can be useful?

Once again going back to the processing ship. If the ship is maxed out with processing can they not burn off some of the recovered oil so that it is burned instead of released into the gulf. I understand that burning is not as good as capturing but since it is better than letting it be released into the water it would appear that setting up a recovery as part of or separate to the ongoing top hat that just burned it off would be better.

Regardless of if my ideas can work or would actually be better than anything they are doing now there is no reason for any more delays. Delays can only mean lack of leadership as this has been going on long enough that everything and I mean everything should be on site that could be needed

I am still long BP stock although I traded it back and forth all day with the goal of lowering the average to the point that if it moved higher I could take a gain. The best I did was about two hours into the day I could have closed out with about a $3K loss. Obviously much better than my current seat and even with my frustration I think this mess will not be as bad as the price of the stock is pricing in despite the best efforts of management to screw up every single painful step of the way. After today I am about even with my trading with BP or maybe down as much as about $1K. I guess that is not bad considering I have mostly been long this stock and how poorly this leak is being handled in relation to how I thought they would grab it and get it taken care of.

Today was my largest drawdown in months so while it was painful at least I have gained a lot more consistency.

BP – 5229 Still long with some covered with July options. Again I want to stay long and hold for over 60 days as well as capture a dividend and hopefully some nice gains when the leak gets under control.
DG + 9 based on earnings. closed it out only because I did not want to remove my focus from BP
TIVO – 58 stopped out news

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Robert what your thesis is failing to take into account is a very very real possiblity that bp files bankruptcy. You keep focusing on them stopping the leak which is now at the pt were the damage has been done and thus the stock is not rallying even when news of containment is seen. claims could easily run into the 100's of billions. I'm very confident that bp does a prepackaged chapter 7 or 11 like texaco did when they lost the huge verdict.we're talking the destruction of millions of lives and the crushing of incomes and real estate.
 
Quote from piggie2000:

Robert what your thesis is failing to take into account is a very very real possiblity that bp files bankruptcy. You keep focusing on them stopping the leak which is now at the pt were the damage has been done and thus the stock is not rallying even when news of containment is seen. claims could easily run into the 100's of billions. I'm very confident that bp does a prepackaged chapter 7 or 11 like texaco did when they lost the huge verdict.we're talking the destruction of millions of lives and the crushing of incomes and real estate.
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They might file BK but it wont matter as I will not be around long enough to find out. As soon as the leak stops the stock will pop up into the mid 40s and I will be gone. It also doesn't have to be like texaco it could be more like Exxon. doesnt matter though, its all about the news
 
Tough day as I really believed BP would kick out some good news today but I guess I was the only one who thought so

There is not a lot to say about my trading today other than I am not real happy. I would have been wise to get out of the stock when I had a chance to get out with a medium loss but I thought after yesterdays sell off we would be due for a bounce. I could not be more wrong. It went from ugly to throw myself out of the window bad as the day went on. I tried to trade my way out of it but that doesn’t work well when a stock only goes in one direction. I am going to write up about the stock BP and my thoughts but for now just the facts of the days trading.
BP – 13358 now flat
BP jun 50 puts – 3623
BP Jul 27.50P – 486 I still have a lot of these written
GS jul130P – 87
RMBS + 68
RST + 24
TIE + 10
TIVO – 113

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I have a lot of naked options with BP wrote both puts and calls as the IV was over 100% for much of the day. The video feeds still give me hope that this is just a matter of waiting it out and the oil will stop leaking. Even with Mr. Hayward trying to do everything possible to slow the stopping of the leak. I have zero respect for him and after a month to still be sending ships that are now needed shows that there is no leadership worth 50 cents at the top levels. We need some Marine officers that are also oilmen to come in and take charge and about the only thing I can see from what I have read and know about the management of this operation is that perhaps Mr. Hayward could be of use by sending him down and using him to plug the hole in the pipe……
 
Quote from Robert Weinstein:

They might file BK but it wont matter as I will not be around long enough to find out. As soon as the leak stops the stock will pop up into the mid 40s and I will be gone. It also doesn't have to be like texaco it could be more like Exxon. doesnt matter though, its all about the news
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Are you a fundamental or Price trader? I remember when I penny stock traded and would read every development excited of how it would impact the price... Emotional (leading financial) investement in upcomming company events is for beginners. You could wake up any morning to a very nasty development. Whatever a company promises to do in the future should not impact your exit plan.

There are other things to trade.
 
Quote from Rashid_G.:

Are you a fundamental or Price trader? I remember when I penny stock traded and would read every development excited of how it would impact the price... Emotional (leading financial) investement in upcomming company events is for beginners. You could wake up any morning to a very nasty development. Whatever a company promises to do in the future should not impact your exit plan.

There are other things to trade.
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I am both but I mixed up the two with this one. I allowed an investment (should have stayed very small like I normally do) turn into to much of a trade. That has mostly been solved and I will be unwinding down the rest of my BP longs and shorts via options in the near future I would guess. Of course I will try to let the market let me know when the best time to do so it.

Thanks and best to you

Robert
 
Quote from jas_in_hbca:

I have no expertise in the oil biz but i do know when Pemex had their Ixtoc oil spill in 1979 it took them 10 months to cap it. And that was only in 150 feet of water. I don't expect any good news on the spill anytime soon but that may be already factored in to BP's price. Good luck.
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It would appear that I was early on this trade and maybe I will be wrong as well. Time will tell

Best to you

Robert
 
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