Weekly Poll: Dow Up 8 Weeks in a Row. Implications for the market?

[shortie]

i would have expected some anxiety before FOMC but VIX -3% while SPY only +0.4%. is this a sign of complacency?

 

[noddyboy]

Quote from shortie:

i would have expected some anxiety before FOMC but VIX -3% while SPY only +0.4%. is this a sign of complacency?

No offense shortie, but your weekly polls were supposed to show where the sentiment is, and provide fading opportunities. I have two observations.
1) There are more bears than bulls on your poll. This means buy.
2) The poll is equally weighted -- it seems to me that posters with high post counts (adjusted for age of account) have less accuracy -- i.e. fade them. I am open to whatever you interpret for me, but S2007S has a high post count which is a bigger fade than a rare post from a bull. You also have a high post count, shortie.

Just my empirical observations, which I assume is the reason you are doing this weekly polls.

 

[noddyboy]

Quote from Nine_Ender:

I gave you a list of stocks a little while ago. How much have they sold off since then ? And where are they going next week ?

Nevermind. I give up.

The only conclusion I can come to is EliteTrader has been taken over by jokers and serious traders should drop out ( if they haven't already ). We've already seen FlyDown argueing with a sponsor after his latest "victory" calling a major correction.

You must be making serious big money shorting the market since September. I'm sure you'll continue to do so the rest of the year.
I can't compete with your success, and the ideas I come up with while trading full time professionally can't possibly be of any value to anyone.

Fk it I'm done with this place for good.

Please don't give up -- given my observations, you are in the low post count category.

 

[shortie]

we had more bears than bulls, but we already went up.

1300 seems an important level but everybody talks about it so maybe it will get violated even if briefly. i am betting that it will hold (+1%)

p.s NineEnder is a drama queen. he is not going anywhere. probably is already back with a new alias (has done it many times i believe)

 

[S2007S]

The reason for my post count is that I don't use 15 different names like 98% of the fools on here. I use ONE and only ONE name....I keep my opinion and don't change it under other aliases!!!

 

[shortie]

if one is managing a fund and is long he is +3% for Jan.

let's say the market is expected to go up maybe 12% this year. how much more could he hope to squeeze in January? if that manager is not selling today, he is probably a fool.

 

[ElCubano]

Quote from S2007S:

The reason for my post count is that I don't use 15 different names like 98% of the fools on here. I use ONE and only ONE name....I keep my opinion and don't change it under other aliases!!!

you gotta admire this kids spunk. Dont ever change your handle.

 

[noddyboy]

Quote from shortie:

if one is managing a fund and is long he is +3% for Jan.

let's say the market is expected to go up maybe 12% this year. how much more could he hope to squeeze in January? if that manager is not selling today, he is probably a fool.

The market is not the Dow. In my case, my longs went down and my shorts went down. Would you believe that? I am long Cloud computing stocks -- FFIV got killed. I am short China plays. It has been a challenging month -- being long, not short, at least for me.

 

[noddyboy]

Quote from S2007S:

The reason for my post count is that I don't use 15 different names like 98% of the fools on here. I use ONE and only ONE name....I keep my opinion and don't change it under other aliases!!!

I respect your persistence -- if you are bearish, why not on HDB or FXI? Isn't the real estate bubble in Emerging Markets more exciting for shorts, than the US bubble that has already deflated? I am making a killing on my shorts -- it is the longs that I need to improve on!

 

[trefoil]

Quote from shortie:

i would have expected some anxiety before FOMC but VIX -3% while SPY only +0.4%. is this a sign of complacency?

I used to play the game of fading the moves before a Fed announcement. Not any more. I mean, it's not like they're saying anything we don't already know:

1 - QE will continue.
2 - There won't be another round.

The only thing that could crack this market bigtime would be if they hinted at a beginning to a new raising campaign in this announcement, but I don't see that. Too soon. There may be some danger of that in the next statement from the next meeting after this one.
Of course, that doesn't mean I'm not hedging my gains a bit now. I'm not insane.