Trump is making a big mistake?

[Turveyd]

I do not trust China's numbers, I think the real numbers for China are way higher, but it is difficult to know.

Regarding Italy, what is happening now is that the growth has become linear and it is not exponential any more (each day the number of newly reported cases and deaths is more or less the same, no more doubling every 2 -4 days), which may not seem much but actually it is a great improvement, next week I expect the number of daily new cases and deaths to start decreasing and that will be the sign that we are approaching the plateau. It will still take few weeks for the plateau yet.

go have a look on Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_coronavirus_pandemic) and see the progression for any country to get an Idea of what exponential and linear increase looks like...

Agreed on China, not using there data, pointless.

Problem is, if it's the lockdowns, which drag it down the releasing will mean, increasing and more lockdowns

You get Swine Flu not deadly went around the entire planet in 2months right ??

We'll see soon ish, next few weeks, who is right or wrong.

I'm betting on me

 

[ironchef]

If changing your mind every 2 hours is smart, then yes he is. We should just make sure he never talks to a chimpanzee because then he would order 200 tons of bananas.

ROTFLMAO.

Be nice, at least he is capable of changing his mind. Things would be much worse if he is stubborn, or dogmatic, insisting the coronavirus is just a flu and orders business as usual. Imagine @dozu888 as your President.

 

[Vindago]

TD, I do not agree with your numbers with a mortality rate estimated at 1% if 60% of UK people had got the virus the death count would be 360K (60M *0.6 *0.01) and that is not so, not even close at this time.

Anyway, on one thing we agree, we will see what happen in the next few weeks.

As for the economy this situation is a lose-lose situation, if enact a long lock down the economy goes down, if you don't the economy still goes down as 100s of thousand people die, not only old people and not only of corona virus.

 

[Vindago]

Everyone in the US is already infected. It is a non-starter. Most people are asymptomatic, like they are with the flu every year. Let's call it 80%.

That's 300+ million people infected with the flu with no symptoms.

If last year they pulled that shit on TV, it would have been the same thing. Mass hysteria, hoarding Zycam, Alka-Seltzer sales gone wild!

We, as a globe, are mostly infected with the thing by now. If they would simply stop testing people, they would have less reported cases on the CNN forever-virii-weblog-of-the-television.

Day in and day out, non-stop coverage of a virus infecting the people of the world, with tick-by-tick counters of the number of people tested.

Why did they never do this for Influenza-A, or the Measles, or Mumps, or Malaria, or Zika, or whatever?

I am sorry but your idea that 80% of US people are already infected is just not supported by facts, first and foremost if that were true the death rate in the US would be way lower than flue and all scientist say that it is at least 10 times higher, at best 1%, most likely 2-3%. This would mean 300M*0.7*0.1 = 2.1M deaths (with flue death rate the deaths would be over 200K), now we are not even close to that number, yet.

Second, the tests that are being performed indicates at best a 10% rate of positive and most test are administered to sick people so the rate is biased on the positive side.

Each of us has two options to get informed on the issue: trust scientists that relies on real data or the hunches of the commander in chief who changes his mind every 5 seconds. I know who I trust best and I guess who you trust, so you have it.

Good luck

 

[Turveyd]

TD, I do not agree with your numbers with a mortality rate estimated at 1% if 60% of UK people had got the virus the death count would be 360K (60M *0.6 *0.01) and that is not so, not even close at this time.

Anyway, on one thing we agree, we will see what happen in the next few weeks.

As for the economy this situation is a lose-lose situation, if enact a long lock down the economy goes down, if you don't the economy still goes down as 100s of thousand people die, not only old people and not only of corona virus.

Mortality isn't 1% it's 0.1% to 0.2%, 60% have it currently and climbing, but the last 40% was in the last 14days so won't be showing symptoms yet, which even at 0.1% requiring hospital admission, means there is going to be a huge surge on hospitals, too much = extra deaths that could of been treated.

Lockdown, 2 weeks too late, based on live figures not 14day lag allowed figures, they've pretended to save us all, to reap the rewards of a thankfully population, after scaring us all to death, but chose the lock down when we all already have it so pointless, there fore no actual effect and getting it over ASAP.

 

[Turveyd]

I am sorry but your idea that 80% of US people are already infected is just not supported by facts, first and foremost if that were true the death rate in the US would be way lower than flue and all scientist say that it is at least 10 times higher, at best 1%, most likely 2-3%. This would mean 300M*0.7*0.1 = 2.1M deaths (with flue death rate the deaths would be over 200K), now we are not even close to that number, yet.

Second, the tests that are being performed indicates at best a 10% rate of positive and most test are administered to sick people so the rate is biased on the positive side.

Each of us has two options to get informed on the issue: trust scientists that relies on real data or the hunches of the commander in chief who changes his mind every 5 seconds. I know who I trust best and I guess who you trust, so you have it.

Good luck

listen carefully!!

Media area lying and scaring everyone with vivid hospital scenes and it can effect 20years olds aswell, despite the stat's saying very very very very few, but 20year olds are stupid and scared and don't understand stat's as they think the world revolves around them, therefore they'll die, if anyone goes outside. They've tried to apply the death rate 4.8% across everyone, not just the old that are getting tested, which is a mis information.

Death rate could be as low at 0.02% so around 60,000 in the USA.

When they've scared you into thinking 3Million are going to die, but then only 60K die, they'll be regarded as gods and they'll have a very thankful public then can walk over.

CALM, sit back and watch, not our first rodeo!!

 

[NY_HOOD]

Keep in mind this virus has only been in the US for about 6 weeks. If you look at the virus in that context you can see that its much more serious than the regular flu.
So when people say the flu kills x amount in the US every year and the corona virus only killed x amount, thats a poor comparison. The flu is measured with data based on a full year where this virus has data for maybe 6 weeks in the US.

 

[Turveyd]

Keep in mind this virus has only been in the US for about 6 weeks. If you look at the virus in that context you can see that its much more serious than the regular flu.
So when people say the flu kills x amount in the US every year and the corona virus only killed x amount, thats a poor comparison. The flu is measured with data based on a full year where this virus has data for maybe 6 weeks in the US.

I'll hold with my 60K estimate, it's a lot ( 50% likely died Virus not a factor, but they had it, so added to the figures ), when it's a 100th of the scare tactics deaths and there all patting each others back and the scared public love there leaders and give them free range, then maybe you'll think back on this post and realise you where played!!

No shame, in being played by the best, these fuckers are good!!

 

[volpri]

ok Mr. "Buy the top"

ROFLMAO

 

[Vindago]

so, let me summarize, you say that:

• the virus has a speed of infection (R0) very high like that of Measeles (12-18) or Chickenpox (12-18) since in only few weeks has already infected 60% of US citizens. if that was true the rate of reported cases would be way higher
• mortality rate is similar to that of Influenza (0.1)

is it just a hunch of do you have solid data to state this? as Scientists (CDC, OMS, all major epidemiologists and virologist) are saying that R0 is between 2 to 3 and the death rate is between 1 and 3 %, that 80% of the people develop minor symptoms but about 20% need hospitalization...

I myself do not much care about the media as most media just follow the events while some particularly partisan media, depending on the political bias, tend to overplay or underplay the issue. I only care about what the expert are saying and writing in peer review journals (I was a scientist myself so I can read a paper published in Nature, Science, Lancet, etc.)

I most definitely do not trust in the least the hunches of would be leaders that may only lead people in the world of fantasy (I am not talking about Trump only, we have our own homegrown race of charlatans in Italy, unfortunately)

Anyway, in Italy we have a say: who will live will see, which mostly mean that if one is lucky enough to live he will get to know what happened...

have a great Sunday