Trump is making a big mistake?

[Turveyd]

so, let me summarize, you say that:

• the virus has a speed of infection (R0) very high like that of Measeles (12-18) or Chickenpox (12-18) since in only few weeks has already infected 60% of US citizens. if that was true the rate of reported cases would be way higher
• mortality rate is similar to that of Influenza (0.1)

is it just a hunch of do you have solid data to state this? as Scientists (CDC, OMS, all major epidemiologists and virologist) are saying that R0 is between 2 to 3 and the death rate is between 1 and 3 %, that 80% of the people develop minor symptoms but about 20% need hospitalization...

I myself do not much care about the media as most media just follow the events while some particularly partisan media, depending on the political bias, tend to overplay or underplay the issue. I only care about what the expert are saying and writing in peer review journals (I was a scientist myself so I can read a paper published in Nature, Science, Lancet, etc.)

I most definitely do not trust in the least the hunches of would be leaders that may only lead people in the world of fantasy (I am not talking about Trump only, we have our own homegrown race of charlatans in Italy, unfortunately)

Anyway, in Italy we have a say: who will live will see, which mostly mean that if one is lucky enough to live he will get to know what happened...

have a great Sunday

Not 60% of US Citizens, your behind UK 2-3 weeks and upto 4 or 5 weeks in areas, big country, New York likely nearing 60%, but other clusters will jump from low numbers to 60% over the next few weeks.

Read this..........

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/...-foolish-freedom-broken-economy-crippled.html

More and more starting to see the con.

0.1% need hospitalising according to that report.

It's death rate of people tested, namely old and sick, not over all population there missing that bit out.

The Death rate in Italy is so high because it's spread so fast, but the faster it spread the faster it goes away, looks like lockdowns slowing the spread ( well was 14days ago ), next 7 - 10 days should hit 80% then start to drop off then release, which will slow the drop off as we near 100% get it.

Spain, new infections looks over the spike aswell, still early to call few more days to be sure, deaths lag infections 3 or 4 days so they should start to drop Wednesday next week to be sure.

If the 2 statements above, don't start being seen then might have to rethink the model, really hope not.

Very early on UK but signs of infections needing treatment showing already which means the deaths should stablize over the next week and start heading down

Inaccuracy in the data from just 1 day in the UK make it more a hope at this stage, role on more data next few days.

It's just Math's, TRUST, nearly over Thank Fuck!! Adapting on what limited info we get, this is a hopefully 1 time in our lives event, so enjoy the math problem

China, data was good lower number, just slow burning 80% to 100% stage, no second spike expected

 

[Vindago]

sorry but first you say don't believe the media and then you cite a report from a very conservative writer (borderline fascist, IMHO) that has no scientific background so he may have an opinion but he does not have the scientific expertise to be used as a guideline.

the slowing down of the curve in Italy is only due to 3 weeks of lock down and a month of social distancing, UK is just 2-3 weeks behind and will see exponential growth for some time yet.

China's number are at the very least understated, now it is emerging that the number of deaths might be around 50K and they implemented the stricter lock down of all, like police would shoot you if you exited your home...

I would really like for you to be right but I know that unfortunately things are way worse than you believe, next few weeks will show us inevitably what is true and what is not.

 

[Turveyd]

sorry but first you say don't believe the media and then you cite a report from a very conservative writer (borderline fascist, IMHO) that has no scientific background so he may have an opinion but he does not have the scientific expertise to be used as a guideline.

the slowing down of the curve in Italy is only due to 3 weeks of lock down and a month of social distancing, UK is just 2-3 weeks behind and will see exponential growth for some time yet.

China's number are at the very least understated, now it is emerging that the number of deaths might be around 50K and they implemented the stricter lock down of all, like police would shoot you if you exited your home...

I would really like for you to be right but I know that unfortunately things are way worse than you believe, next few weeks will show us inevitably what is true and what is not.

Doesn't mean he isn't right!

Italy is going sideways due to lockdown it'll near 80% and slow down soon, next 7 - 10 days. If Italy was left to run a bit longer then it would likely already be going down, but over taxed health care, so it's all good.

UK and Spain might follow the same pattern but was left to run a bit longer, without exponential growth and heading back down already but would of over taxed health care, Spain sadly went over there health care hence more deaths

Math's game, 20 - 60% is easy to do and fast, then less people to spread to and as you near 100% the spread gets slower and slower as less people to spread to.

Next door, 2 for sure have it, maybe 1 other, I thought maybe didn't have it chest ache 30mins ago, but massive belch psychosomatic and too much chocolate and it's eased.

p.s. I'm always right, unless it's a trade, then always wrong LOL

 

[Vindago]

p.s. I'm always right, unless it's a trade, then always wrong LOL

me too, me too

 

[Ethilaloth]

Well, let's be honest, Trump is one of the most talented businessmen of our time, and I think that now in his politics he often applies his business knowledge in his political career, and he certainly succeeds. Yes, he's quite tough and uncompromising, for many people his policy seems to be quite ambiguous, he's rarely understood and supported, but let's face it, no matter what happens in the world, everything is always fine in the U.S., so don't worry about it, I think it will be clear in time what this policy has led to, and it will certainly lead to interesting and I'm sure that we'll talk about it in a hundred percent of the time, it was so thoughtful and brilliant...

 

[Zithiel89]

I think a lot depends on the sphere, because indeed there are industries that simply cannot be suspended, because this will lead to even greater panic and an inevitable economic crisis. In fact, despite the fact that the state should support all its citizens in such a situation, it is worth looking at the situation in real terms, it is almost impossible to allocate any financial assistance to everyone. So I think that there should be some kind of relief, I think that there are still certain restrictions, perhaps not as tough as in other countries, but everything is relative. Maybe they have a level of processing and prevention that they can afford. So let's see, maybe it's not that kind of stupid decision, it definitely makes sense.

 

[Vindago]

Ethilaloth are you serious?, I guess you are

Good luck to you and to your fellow Americans with that clown leading you out the worst economic crisis the world has seen, not to talk about the human disaster your are going to face, you have no idea but you will know soon enough.

 

[SunTrader]

Well, let's be honest, Trump is one of the most talented businessmen of our time, and I think that now in his politics he often applies his business knowledge in his political career, and he certainly succeeds. Yes, he's quite tough and uncompromising, for many people his policy seems to be quite ambiguous, he's rarely understood and supported, but let's face it, no matter what happens in the world, everything is always fine in the U.S., so don't worry about it, I think it will be clear in time what this policy has led to, and it will certainly lead to interesting and I'm sure that we'll talk about it in a hundred percent of the time, it was so thoughtful and brilliant...

Oh yeah he has got talents coming out the wazoo. The wazoo in his case is his head.
That's why his hair looks the way it does.

Talent for going bankrupt 4 times in a business that it is almost unheard of to go bankrupt - Casino Gambling otherwise know as a money printing business second only to The Fed. But he had the "talent".

Shilling Steaks, TieClips and other niknaks on latenight TV. Made verrry little it seems since he stopped doing that. But that's a "talent" I suppose.

Ran a Corrupt Real Estate "School" that was class action sued and shut down. He had to give some of his "talent" to the victors and NY State. But no worries, he never runs out of "talent".

But one of the best uses of his "talent" was as Boss Hogg ummm I mean yer fired man tv reality star the one and only The Apprentice.

And for the past 3 years he has done nothing to erase The Apprentice from my mind. Talent. That's it.

 

[SunTrader]

Ethilaloth are you serious?, I guess you are

Good luck to you and to your fellow Americans with that clown leading you out the worst economic crisis the world has seen, not to talk about the human disaster your are going to face, you have no idea but you will know soon enough.

Ethilaloth (from their profile) is not Amuuuurican. And the borders are currently closed to any future Trumpuppets. Full, nobody home.

But CV-19 is, unfortunately, the perfect storm for an incompetent to massively screw up and he hasn't let us down in that regard. All the while taking credit where obviously none is due and sidestepping blame for all he has done ... and continues to do.

And like you say most have no idea what is still to come.

 

[Vindago]

I have just talked with some friends in the US (Maryland) and they told me that people are beginning to worry and to be scared, but I agree with you that probably they do not get the scale of what is coming yet. As said I live in Italy and unfortunately I have a first row sit into the CV19, Financial and economic crisis that is coming.

Of course America has always had a stronger economy than Italy but it is less culturally prepared for the help that many, many people will need when millions will lose their jobs and Trumps is many things but he is not F.D. Roosevelt...