trend following delusion shattered

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Hank (aka Surfer ?)

Seems like you have done a 180.

Selling your Tudor tapes and slamming trend following.

Here is my take in it .. Right or Wrong

You have had a bad few months and your confidence is shattered so instead of realizing that the market conditions have changed and your models of trend following where probably flawed to start with you have thrown the baby out with the bath water!

Am I right ?

Be HONEST if not with us just yourself.

pm me if you really want to get back on track I may have something that will help.

If I'm off base well then ignore the post!
 
Quote from illiquid:

Systems have to predict the extent of their profits at the time their setup occurs? Since when?
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Systems have to predict whether price will move in the right direction, and to a certain minimum extent, after the prospective entry.
 
Quote from hank rollins:

underneath myself? my opinion echos those of the finest minds in academia and the business itself.
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Perhaps it echoes from another cavernous region? :D
in addition, my own unbiased extensive research into this topic bares the validity of the view.
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You haven't presented any research. All you've done is make claims that you can't substantiate.
remember, i dont get paid, if i dont make a profit.
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Big deal. None of us do.

M
 
It's interesting with all this talk... MFE (Maximum Favorable Excursion) and MAE (Maximum Adverse Excursion) hasn't been mentioned...

If I was pro-trend, this would be a good place to build some thought...

MFE(d0) - MAE(d1) > 0 ...

then asking questions and mentioning points to lure anti-trends to some conclusion...

then making a point that MFE and MAE is a curve-fitting meaure... along with how it's curve fitting with some mathematical proof... reversing that non-trending systems are relatively curve-fitted to frequency... blah blah blah...

Well... don't even bother asking me to write the logic under this post... just helping hanketsurfer stir some things...

The winner of this thread is the one to question and stump the opposite side without making a point.
 
I'm gonna give this another shot......

I know that using the breakout of the 40 minute opening range + a threshold value in soybeans will result in a profit 90% of the time and an average of about $150 at the end of the day.

Using this information, "d" > 0 90% of the time (not taking slippage or commissions into account).

This doesn't "predict" movement; it merely states that I have positive movement with this particular setup 90% of the time. This is what I mean when I say the entry has > 50% chance of profitablility.

I then take this information and test it in a system setting (trade management). This is the evolution of a trend following approach. No prediction of profit is made. However, based on research, a profit = the historical average trade is expected in the future (within statistical bands).

Trend followers do not make a prediction as to the size of a future move; they maximize the probability that a sizeable move will occur. You need to realize this.

You are so consumed with this |p1-p0| > d relationship that you are losing sight of the bigger picture. This is not how trend following operates, and I don't even realize why we are going around in circles with this idiotic relationship; it is not really the point of the original post in this thread. Nothing in the original post mentioned anything about predicting the future. Unless you are Miss Cleo, you cannot do this.

P.S. I can substantiate my claims through my 80+ pages of research. If you include all of my work on this one entry, it fills a 200 page binder. It is also in .pdf format on my computer. But, alas, you cannot read .pdf's (not that I'd give you about 200+ hours' worth of work for free anyway).
 
Quote from TSGannGalt:

It's interesting with all this talk... MFE (Maximum Favorable Excursion) and MAE (Maximum Adverse Excursion) hasn't been mentioned...

If I was pro-trend, this would be a good place to build some thought...

MFE(d0) - MAE(d1) > 0 ...

then asking questions and mentioning points to lure anti-trends to some conclusion...

then making a point that MFE and MAE is a curve-fitting meaure... along with how it's curve fitting with some mathematical proof... reversing that non-trending systems are relatively curve-fitted to frequency... blah blah blah...

Well... don't even bother asking me to write the logic under this post... just helping hanketsurfer stir some things...

The winner of this thread is the one to question and stump the opposite side without making a point.
More...
All the "trendies" need to do is describe and then demonstrate a system where future price can be determined from past price. They could settle this issue once and for all by the weekend.

Yet, not a single appropriate demonstration has been made, and the challenge continues to go unmet.
 
Quote from NickelScalper:

All the "trendies" need to do is describe and then demonstrate a system where future price can be determined from past price. They could settle this issue once and for all by the weekend.

Yet, not a single appropriate demonstration has been made, and the challenge continues to go unmet.
More...

Bwahahahahahahahahaahahhaahahahaha!!!!

ROFL!!!!

!!!!

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!
 
Quote from TSGannGalt:

It's interesting with all this talk... MFE (Maximum Favorable Excursion) and MAE (Maximum Adverse Excursion) hasn't been mentioned...

If I was pro-trend, this would be a good place to build some thought...

MFE(d0) - MAE(d1) > 0 ...

then asking questions and mentioning points to lure anti-trends to some conclusion...

then making a point that MFE and MAE is a curve-fitting meaure... along with how it's curve fitting with some mathematical proof... reversing that non-trending systems are relatively curve-fitted to frequency... blah blah blah...

Well... don't even bother asking me to write the logic under this post... just helping hanketsurfer stir some things...

The winner of this thread is the one to question and stump the opposite side without making a point.
More...



what are your thoughts on the 50 / 200 day crossover system results posted earlier ?

hanksurfer
 
Quote from hank rollins:

what are your thoughts on the 50 / 200 day crossover system results posted earlier ?

hanksurfer
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What is the 50/200 day crossover system???

ROFL!!! :)

Don't bother answering me... :D
 
Quote from Samson77:

Hank (aka Surfer ?)

Seems like you have done a 180.

Selling your Tudor tapes and slamming trend following.

Here is my take in it .. Right or Wrong

You have had a bad few months and your confidence is shattered so instead of realizing that the market conditions have changed and your models of trend following where probably flawed to start with you have thrown the baby out with the bath water!

Am I right ?

Be HONEST if not with us just yourself.

pm me if you really want to get back on track I may have something that will help.

If I'm off base well then ignore the post!
More...



yo bro, nice to see you here. however your theory is wrong-- i am having my best year ever. see my journal on the other site that i am not permitted to mention. so far this trade-- over 300 points in DJIA, 6 plus points in EBAY, and my oil trade turned profitable today. am i with the trend ?? you bet ! based on my defintion of trend, ofcourse.

by the way, top bid on PTJ tape is still $500.00, still not on ebay.

hanksurfer
 
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