trend following delusion shattered

[PitchBlack]

Quote from 5yrtrader:

Thank you spike. I don't know why I bother convincing people of the correct way to trade.

To me it's pretty clear. It's psychological.
The more we try to convince them the more they refuse to listen. In this way they prefer loosing more money than ever before. And we thank them because we take that money.
All we do is motivate them to continue the way they trade.

 

[NickelScalper]

Any system of trading must be capable of determining a sufficiently large (positive or negative) d, which is the difference between present price and a price to be marketable in the near future. The value of d is generated by the system in real time, and then the trader decides whether or not that d is of sufficient size to warrant a trade. If a system is incapable of generating a large enough d, or if it gives a wrong d too often, that system is bogus.

This variable d is also in the challenge question, which is repeated for purposes of reference:

What is a reliable method that can be applied to past price action to determine a usefully large positive or negative number d such that (p1-p0)>=d, where p0 is the current market price and p1 will be a marketable price in the near future?

I'm looking for an answer to be posted here in plain text form. The proof of the answer is also to be posted here, as real time trading calls that specify on what basis the proposed method is being invoked.

It's high time for someone to step up to the plate, swing and follow through.

 

[John Merchant]

Jack's channels do that. Down to the tick. You have well-defined risk and an explicit exit target.

 

[illiquid]

Quote from NickelScalper:

Any system of directional trading must be capable of determining a sufficiently large (positive or negative) d, which is the difference between present price and a price to be marketable in the near future. The value of d is generated by the system in real time, and then the trader decides whether or not that d is of sufficient size to warrant a trade.

Systems have to predict the extent of their profits at the time their setup occurs? Since when?

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from illiquid:

Systems have to predict the extent of their profits at the time their setup occurs? Since when?

Since the last time someone provided an answer that fit the previous criteria. Each time an individual provides a correct answer to the question, he has changed the criteria allowing him to exclude all previous answers posted. Neat game.

- Spydertrader

 

[John Merchant]

Illiquid. Back when I believed in backtesting, I always optimized the expectancy by optimizing the exit.

 

[hank rollins]

Quote from spike500:

On Wednesday Niederhoffer told investors in three hedge funds he runs that their stakes had been ‘wiped out’ Monday by losses that culminated from three days of falling stock prices and big hits earlier this year in Thailand.

David Henry USA Today (October 30, 1997)

3 days to wipe out 3 complete funds; isn't that proof enough that the only way is WITH the trend?

he was ranked number one for years before the 1997 debacle--- outsized risks were taken, and he paid the price. the lesson has been learned, and victor is back on top.

the trend heroes listed are outliers, the exception rather than the rule.

 

[illiquid]

Sigh. I don't know why I keep posting here. I don't trade with systems, I don't even trade using trends beyond eyeballing the daily chart. Just can't stand facism when I see it I guess.

 

[hank rollins]

Quote from illiquid:

Systems have to predict the extent of their profits at the time their setup occurs? Since when?

this comment it totally off base---- significantly large refers to being large enough to cover the vig and produce profit. it does not refer to predicting the extent of profit just that there is a profit.

 

[hank rollins]

Quote from Mathemagician:

You have yet to substantiate anything, instead choosing to speak entirely from underneath yourself.

M

underneath myself? my opinion echos those of the finest minds in academia and the business itself.

in addition, my own unbiased extensive research into this topic bares the validity of the view.

remember, i dont get paid, if i dont make a profit.