trend following delusion shattered
- Thread starter hank rollins
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while I rather not get into the discussion of "trend following" is in itself a superior strategy or not...I would point out that "false beliefs" are just part of the market structure. Inexperienced traders, popular myths, voodoo analysis is just part of the food chain. A heavy dose of false beliefs and untested theories is always a welcome meal for the astute traders.
Otherwise who would we feed upon?
For a more detailed picture of the market ecosystem one should read:
Market Microstructure for Practitioners by Larry Harris
Otherwise who would we feed upon?
For a more detailed picture of the market ecosystem one should read:
Market Microstructure for Practitioners by Larry Harris
spending too much time watching kids TV, jimmyneutron?
don't worry, things will improve.
surf
Quote from uptik2000:
LOL... Oh yeah, I forgot about that.
Surf, you going to the expo in Feb? I might check it out. Maybe we can grab a beverage. My treat.
my be leary of timothy blazer? make one mistake in nomenclature and fashion over 10 years and i can never live it down?? LOL !!
yes, i'll be there--drinks sound good! looking forward to hanging out with you, make sure you bring the original surfer hat!
surfer
Quote from Corelio:
while I rather not get into the discussion of "trend following" is in itself a superior strategy or not...I would point out that "false beliefs" are just part of the market structure. Inexperienced traders, popular myths, voodoo analysis is just part of the food chain. A heavy dose of false beliefs and untested theories is always a welcome meal for the astute traders.
Otherwise who would we feed upon?
For a more detailed picture of the market ecosystem one should read:
Market Microstructure for Practitioners by Larry Harris
exactly. this thread is prime example of what happens when one questions traders core beliefs with reality. it becomes a witch hunt on the non believer.
an example on how the market really works is evidenced within this thread.
thanks,
surf
Quote from marketsurfer:
Viewing the past, its simple to see a trend in the markets. However, this past trend has no bearing on the future movements after one enters the trade. trend following is a marketing term, which in reality equals buy/sell and hold/hope. are their outliers that make big money with this strategy--sure--but it spells death for the majority by either holding too long or by thousands of cuts ( vig ).
quote from Ed Seykota:
"The only way to measure a now-trend (one entirely in the moment of now) would be to take two points, both in the now and compute their difference. Motion, velocity and trend do not exist in the now. They do not appear in snapshots. Trend does not exist in the now and the phrase, "the trend" has no inherent meaning. When we speak of trends, we are speaking, necessarily, from some or another view of history."
See attachment
thank you, BB!
best, surf
He's usually quick to respond, except for instances where someone asks about his "performance". But I'm sure it's just a marketing issue when you have books to sell.
Quote from LivermoresGhost:
He's usually quick to respond, except for instances where someone asks about his "performance". But I'm sure it's just a marketing issue when you have books to sell.
Ask Surfer for Intrendx numbers and you can almost hear, nearly imperceptibly, his head explode.
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