trend following delusion shattered

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Quote from makloda:

I think his company is called Formula Capital.

Anybody have performance numbers for the last 3 years?
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Formula is a FoF, and I've never seen any mention in MAR or Barclays. I am looking at my weekly MAR right now. How about filling us in, James? A link to ANY reporting of fund-performance?
 
I find seykota's statement cited above to be accurate, but, it is of little consequemnce and basically hypertechnical. he is stating the obvious. if you have only one price point and it is the last print you can't have a trend.

bid deal - no one point can from a straight line.

Trader vics has a nice way of using trendlines. You could use his work to define trends.

I use mine and it is vital piece of infomation it took me about 7 years to put into the context of a tradeable methodology

For about 6 years I had another trend pullback methodology that made plenty of money for me and many others in my office who used it. It was based on trend trading on one minute charts and it was eventually sold on trading markets (by someone marketsurfer knows.)

It is much harder to make money with because the trends are not as long or as presistent in the U.S. equity markets right now.

this does not mean trends do not exist and cant be traded. They just cant be traded as well right now.
 
Quote from makloda:

Here's your typical Trend Follower, far from dead I would say:

http://www.iasg.com/SnapshotPT.asp?ID=323

AUM: $2.7BN
2006 Return: 17.86%
Annualized Return: 19.36% since 1998

These are net after 2/20 fees.
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far from being "typical". trend funds, as an asset class, have been getting killed across the board over the last several years.

it takes global dislocation for these guys to profit with their "buy/sell and hold" strategies---- relative calmness in the global markets renders these tactics inferior.

still waiting for someone to tell me how many moves in a series increase the likelihood of the next move/series to be in the same direction.

regards,

surfer
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

far from being "typical". trend funds, as an asset class, have been getting killed across the board over the last several years.

it takes global dislocation for these guys to profit with their "buy/sell and hold" strategies---- relative calmness in the global markets renders these tactics inferior.

still waiting for someone to tell me how many moves in a series increase the likelihood of the next move/series to be in the same direction.

regards,

surfer
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One of the (sic) Intrendx "methods" was a channel BO. Hardly mean-reverting. If Surfer can't make any money on trends they must not exist. Existential dilemma.

Forgive this fool. He doesn't know how to buy the EUR/USD pair. I suppose it's easy to make that mistake when you don't actually trade, eh surfer?
 
Winton Capital's Harding uses a combined mean reversion and trend following algorithm. He is also responsible for AHL, the program used by MAN Investments to generated over 40% of their income.

If you simply cannot believe that trend following is an active and profitable way to trade the markets, then take a look at real living concepts such as autopoiesis and stigmergy, and you will find evidence in many cases of trends developing out of basic living systems in nature.
 
Viewing the past, its simple to see a trend in the markets. However, this past trend has no bearing on the future movements after one enters the trade. trend following is a marketing term, which in reality equals buy/sell and hold/hope. are their outliers that make big money with this strategy--sure--but it spells death for the majority by either holding too long or by thousands of cuts ( vig ).

surf


ps. thanks for the darwin award and further libelist statements, riskarb, welcome back! :D
 
Quote from psytrade:

Winton Capital's Harding uses a combined mean reversion and trend following algorithm. He is also responsible for AHL, the program used by MAN Investments to generated over 40% of their income.

If you simply cannot believe that trend following is an active and profitable way to trade the markets, then take a look at real living concepts such as autopoiesis and stigmergy, and you will find evidence in many cases of trends developing out of basic living systems in nature.
More...


Thanks for the info on AHL and Winton. Can you tell me a little more about the AHL program? thanks!

yes, trends can be seen on past price charts--however this is one way the market deceives traders.

However, seeing this "trend" does not give the trader any edge whatsoever. your examples of natural trends can be measured and quantified--in the market, this isn't the case. If market trends could provide a quantifiable edge to the trader, my basic question of how many moves/series of moves in one direction dictate a greater than 50/50 chance that the next move or series will be in the same direction?

regards,

surfer
 
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