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i see mr.tough is back in the ring.
I never left. Champion of the World. Undefeated.
trend following delusion shattered
- Thread starter hank rollins
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I never left. Champion of the World. Undefeated.
I know everyone here loves trendfollowing, but I thought most people on elite trader were "traders". Not long-term investors. Trend following is mostly a long-term investing strategy. Trends last years. And then they get broken for years. Which is why many of these guys, the best of the best, John Henry, have horrendous down periods. These down periods last for years in some cases.
Can anyone here handle being down 20%+ a year for a few years? If you can't then don't trend follow.
And also, don't trend follow stocks. Stocks are mean reverting as a million studies show, but with an upward drift. None of the trend followers buy stocks. John Henry has a dollar fund,various commodities funds, etc. I dont think he buys MSFT when it breaks a 52 week high.
And all of these great trend followers got their careers started when there was like 3 people in the cotton pit. What happens now that everyone is trend following and they all have to get out at the same time when the trend is broken.
Look, trend following has been a GREAT business for many people. There's been a lot of fat fees handed out, even this year when returns were largely negative for the best of the best. I don't deny that. But do you, as traders (and most of you are short-term traders sitting in your homes or prop firms) want to be in the same business?
-James Altucher
Can anyone here handle being down 20%+ a year for a few years? If you can't then don't trend follow.
And also, don't trend follow stocks. Stocks are mean reverting as a million studies show, but with an upward drift. None of the trend followers buy stocks. John Henry has a dollar fund,various commodities funds, etc. I dont think he buys MSFT when it breaks a 52 week high.
And all of these great trend followers got their careers started when there was like 3 people in the cotton pit. What happens now that everyone is trend following and they all have to get out at the same time when the trend is broken.
Look, trend following has been a GREAT business for many people. There's been a lot of fat fees handed out, even this year when returns were largely negative for the best of the best. I don't deny that. But do you, as traders (and most of you are short-term traders sitting in your homes or prop firms) want to be in the same business?
-James Altucher
vishnu
Sorry dude, but i trend follow intraday. You say trend followers are long term. OK, no problem from this end on that score. BUT, aside from the time frame what is the difference in a trend? Why would i as an intraday trader not want to find the trend of the day?
A trend is a trend as a trend is a trend. Correct?
So what i meant to say and ask is that intraday traders are trendfollowers, correct?
Sorry dude, but i trend follow intraday. You say trend followers are long term. OK, no problem from this end on that score. BUT, aside from the time frame what is the difference in a trend? Why would i as an intraday trader not want to find the trend of the day?
A trend is a trend as a trend is a trend. Correct?
So what i meant to say and ask is that intraday traders are trendfollowers, correct?
Why is it so hard to say trend following can be done intraday?
PS, I would say many LONGER term hedgies etc might even trade shorter term time frames as a play against the main position in a separate account. Ok, lets put it this way, if PTJ puts a trade on and the reasons for the trade go up in smoke the same day. would one assume PTJ would bail out the same day?
Take that same situation and transpose it to an intraday trade from a small daytrader............. if the trade is filled and the very next bar says the proposition for entering the trade is now gone would it be wise to bail?
Technical analysis is trend following, regardless of the time frame.
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