yes.
see larry connor's book "how markets really work" for more on this very real concept, that is antithetical to trend following.
surf
trend following delusion shattered
- Thread starter hank rollins
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yes.
see larry connor's book "how markets really work" for more on this very real concept, that is antithetical to trend following.
surf
Marketsurfer, it seems that you may have inadvertently skipped over my post without answering my direct question on the previous page of this thread. Not to worry, these things happen. Here's the link for your convenience:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1172472#post1172472
I look forward to your response.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1172472#post1172472
I look forward to your response.
<i>As do all of your "scientific" studies, methods and theories as they relate to the market. They are also based on, and exist in, the past. So, what, then, is your point? Where does that leave you and your "tools?"</i>
at first glance, this is indeed a very valid and thought provoking point.
i'll respond in more depth when i return from tennis/pool.
surf
More than a few traders here have noted the term "trend" is entirely related to what timeframe each of us is trading. Buying weakness and selling strength is proven to be statistically valid, when holding periods for said open trades measure days or weeks in duration.
Short-term swing trades and especially intraday trades profit big-time when buying medium and selling higher, or selling medium and buying lower.
What does that mean? Hunting specifically for and catching emini intraday or short-term directional moves (once underway) is far easier money than trying to fade every swing in a chart.
For example, selling into Friday 8/18 opening drop and/or buying the afternoon lift (leave midday periods alone!) in ES - ER was a lot easier trading than trying to pick the early bottom (tough) or sell the afternoon top (there wasn't one) in that particular session.
*
Inside Conner's study, open-to-close values for days to weeks at a time do not measure intraday behavior. That data is sound for longer-term swing trades, but totally meaningless to pure intraday traders. Assigning one timeframe chart as "the trend" and a shorter-term chart as the signals within that trend filter keeps emini traders on the correct side of directional moves more often than not.
Looking at any intraday emini charts from Tuesday 8/15 thru Thursday 8/17, that is a clear definition of trend move. It is not an illusion, because all of us can see the exact-same thing on our respective charts. Price action began at a relative low point and continued upward to a relative high point for three consecutive sessions.
Price action went steadily higher, and trade methods that identify long-trade signals within those numerous pull backs profited methodically as always. Tactics that tried selling every lift into "resistance" were the fodder for bull-flags that create liquidity for directional emini traders.
**
The trend is your friend until its end. The key is, defining your trend to correlate with preferred market - symbol - timeframe of trading. Try that for awhile, and see if this game doesn't become a whole lot easier to win!
Hope this helps
Austin
Short-term swing trades and especially intraday trades profit big-time when buying medium and selling higher, or selling medium and buying lower.
What does that mean? Hunting specifically for and catching emini intraday or short-term directional moves (once underway) is far easier money than trying to fade every swing in a chart.
For example, selling into Friday 8/18 opening drop and/or buying the afternoon lift (leave midday periods alone!) in ES - ER was a lot easier trading than trying to pick the early bottom (tough) or sell the afternoon top (there wasn't one) in that particular session.
*
Inside Conner's study, open-to-close values for days to weeks at a time do not measure intraday behavior. That data is sound for longer-term swing trades, but totally meaningless to pure intraday traders. Assigning one timeframe chart as "the trend" and a shorter-term chart as the signals within that trend filter keeps emini traders on the correct side of directional moves more often than not.
Looking at any intraday emini charts from Tuesday 8/15 thru Thursday 8/17, that is a clear definition of trend move. It is not an illusion, because all of us can see the exact-same thing on our respective charts. Price action began at a relative low point and continued upward to a relative high point for three consecutive sessions.
Price action went steadily higher, and trade methods that identify long-trade signals within those numerous pull backs profited methodically as always. Tactics that tried selling every lift into "resistance" were the fodder for bull-flags that create liquidity for directional emini traders.
**
The trend is your friend until its end. The key is, defining your trend to correlate with preferred market - symbol - timeframe of trading. Try that for awhile, and see if this game doesn't become a whole lot easier to win!
Hope this helps
Austin
austin, good boy...u did well.......seriously ......what you said in my honest opinion is beautiful.......but most don't care...they have to do it totally their way.....you see, my friend, you could give away your #1 system and 99% would pervert and destroy it as their ego would say.........this is not mine, so i am not the winner with this.....i can do better....i am smarter....i will show the world how much better i can do this.....i once was one of those foolish ones....cost me a lot of years and massive hours........to see truth.........notice all the I's ........that is why I am the problem......your comments are really great....if u trade what u say and as u say u r the 1 %......high probability u r.......
tradin' against the trens is pure kamikazin' for quite a few reasons: when u try to catch top and bottoms the mkt always stay irrational more than u expect and the losses u take are often humongous. on top of that when u get it right [or so it seems] u either close your pos too soon or let it run too much and the sob you are tradin' come bak against u to resume it's trend and kick u nutz once again..this is a no win/lose situation for all of a us plancton traders...cpus are makin' a killin' tradin' ranges and dominate the mkt day in day out but there are no stupid emotions involved and are usually driven by big powerhouses like gs or merryl that can endure substantial paper-losses and stil come ahead...u wanna compete with 'em? go ahead and keep makin' my day.
one can learn many things from studying the past in a scientific, statistically valid manner. unfortunately trend following, as defined in the best seller of the same name, does not fit these parameters. in fact, when tested, trend following is a vastly inferior strategy.
yes, of course, our methods rely on past data, but this data is viewed in a statistically valid manner--not simply buying new highs, selling new lows as the trendys preach. TA is like an Xray--it shows one what's in "there"--but does little to cure the problem. to cure the problem, one needs to know the underlying factors that create what is seen on the film. hope this makes sense.
trend following is a feel good religion. the public digs the concept in a big way---- to survive in this game, think outside of the box!
surf
every day is beautiful..........emini's .......there are only 2 types of markets that u will see day in and dday out....daytrader's real friend.........and those same 2 have been occurring for 5 yrss i know....and one or both happen every day.....every day...go figger.....i won't tell......u must work for it.....
the trendys dont tell u to buy new highs and sell new lows, those are idiots. u can do it in momo trades but not on issues that seem to pattern a trend; retracements is where u pos should be initiated and when u do so if u are proven wrong u'll know it immediately sice u are in at the trendline and if it is violated u are out.
surf, just because u dont have either the skills or the patience to trade the trend doesnt mean it is not a profitable approach...infact i make all my money buyin'/sellin' shit that gaps and keep trendin' in it's direction. why dont u stop bashin' everythin' u cant do cuz of your own limitations.
surf, just because u dont have either the skills or the patience to trade the trend doesnt mean it is not a profitable approach...infact i make all my money buyin'/sellin' shit that gaps and keep trendin' in it's direction. why dont u stop bashin' everythin' u cant do cuz of your own limitations.
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